SCP-2989 — SCP-2989 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-2989 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-2989

Expected annual

$2.9M

One-time setup

$1.9M

Annual recurring

$2.9M

Personnel

One-time startup capital approximately $1.87M for construction, containment gear, lab setup and reserves; recurring annual operations about $2.88M driven primarily by 24/7 staffed observation, researcher payroll, legal/PR/compliance, and ecological remediation.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.9M

Facilities $795K

[#1, #2, #18] Site construction/retrofit costs for Site-2989-α (Arashiyama pavilion, cultural compliance, root barriers) and Site-2989-β conversion of library; includes generator/UPS and site structural work.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $300K

[#8] Laboratory buildout and scientific instruments (bench-top sequencers, microscopes, spectrometers, sterile bench, cold storage prep) for metabolic/discoloration research.

Decommissioning Fund $250K

[#29] Reserved fund for ultimate decommissioning, site restoration, and long-term stewardship.

Equipment $197K

[#3, #4, #10, #23, #24, #27] Surveillance hardware and installation (#3), initial NAS/infrastructure (#4), specimen containment enclosures (#10), specialized pupal monitoring rigs (#23), -80°C freezer (#24), and initial IT/security hardware/software (#27).

Permits And Legal One Time $100K

[#13] One-time permitting, environmental impact assessments, cultural-heritage compliance fees and legal setup in Japan and USA.

Contingency Reserve $100K

[#17] One-time contingency/reserve funding for major repairs, sudden remediation or legal events.

Cultural Payments One Time $50K

[#20] Initial cultural/conservation payments and community compensation in Kyoto to secure local cooperation.

Botanical Major Removal $30K

[#11] Occasional one-off major bamboo removal/event remediation at Site-2989-β.

Specialized Monitoring One Time $30K

[#23] Initial non-invasive pupal-stage detection equipment (time-lapse rigs, odor detectors).

Cover Story One Time $20K

[#14] Initial messaging rollout and PR/concealment materials to establish cover stories.

It Security One Time $20K

[#27] Initial IT security, encryption, access control and forensic-readiness tools setup.

Training Sop One Time $15K

[#25] Initial SOP development, safety protocol creation, and cultural-sensitivity training design.

Freezer One Time $12K

[#24] -80°C freezer purchase for sample preservation and chain-of-custody storage.

Quarantine One Time $8K

[#16] Initial quarantine/sterilization setup (PPE, decon supplies, quarantine boxes) and training startup.

Archival One Time $5K

[#22] Initial software/ontology/OCR setup for archival and translation pipeline.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.9M/yr

Staff Wages $1.8M/yr

[#5, #6, #7] Permanent staff payroll: on-site observers/technicians (8 staff/site × 2 sites) and local security guards (4 guards/site × 2 sites) plus 4 full-time research scientists.

Overhead $480K/yr

[#30] Institutional overhead (HR, accounting, procurement, audit) estimated at 20% of recurring direct costs.

Supplies And Consumables $117K/yr

[#9, #16, #28] Lab reagents, sequencing kits and disposables (#9), quarantine consumables and PPE (#16), and small consumables/bamboo/paper supplies (#28).

Research And Monitoring $94K/yr

[#4, #22, #23, #24, #26] Ongoing data storage & backup costs (#4), archival/translation services (#22), calibration/maintenance of monitoring gear (#23), sample storage maintenance (#24), and periodic environmental monitoring/reporting (#26).

Cover Story And Legal $70K/yr

[#13, #14] Legal retainer/compliance work and ongoing PR/cover-story management to prevent public suspicion.

Logistics And Transport $60K/yr

[#15] Travel, specialist visits, specimen/parts courier costs, emergency rotations, and quarantine-compliant transport between US and Japan.

Insurance And Liability $60K/yr

[#17] Annual insurance premiums for property, liability and staff injury coverage.

Facilities Maintenance $50K/yr

[#19] Routine building upkeep, groundskeeping, pest control, trails and seasonal care at both sites.

Energy And Power $36K/yr

[#18] Electricity, fuel and generator maintenance for 24/7 power to cameras, servers, labs and HVAC across both sites.

Botanical Management Recurring $25K/yr

[#11] Regular bamboo growth mitigation, root-barriers, herbicide treatments and contractor call-outs for smaller removals at Site-2989-β.

Surface Discoloration Remediation $25K/yr

[#12] Conservation-grade cleaning, repainting, substrate replacement and conservator fees for discoloration at Site-2989-α.

Monitoring Offsite Surveys $25K/yr

[#26] Environmental surveys and regulatory reporting on off-site ecological impact (soil, flora/fauna).

Cultural Payments Recurring $20K/yr

[#20] Ongoing community payments, funding for local conservation projects and outreach in Kyoto.

Emergency Response And Contractors $15K/yr

[#21] Annual retainer for emergency remediation contractors and rapid-response call-out priority.

It Security $15K/yr

[#27] Ongoing managed security, patches, monitoring and legal-hold support for sensitive data.

Archival And Translation Recurring $10K/yr

[#22] Annual translator fees, textual archiving, linguistic analysis and OCR maintenance.

Training And Safety Drills $10K/yr

[#25] Refresher training, SOP updates, and emergency drills for staff.

Specialized Containment Maintenance $5K/yr

[#10] Replacement parts and maintenance for pupal-safe chrysalises and controlled enclosures.

Research Logistics Small $0/yr

[]

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.9M/yr

85.0% probability / year

Normal operational year with ongoing monitoring, routine remediation and no major incidents.

normal_operations routine_remediation

🚨 Minor Incident $2.9M/yr

12.0% probability / year +$25K vs baseline

Unexpected larger-than-usual bamboo incursion or heavy discoloration event requiring extra contractor work, overtime and PR response.

sudden_bamboo_infestation large_surface_discoloration public_reports

🚨 Major Breach $3.8M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$865K vs baseline

Simultaneous materialization/merging event resulting in containment failure, public exposure and a large remediation/legal response.

simultaneous_materialization escape_of_instance public_exposure

👥 Personnel 28 total

Role	Count	Notes
On-site Observers / Technicians	16	[#5] 8 staff per site (6 observers + 2 techs) across two sites to provide 24/7 coverage.
Security Officer / Guards	8	[#6] 4 guards per site to enforce exclusion, night patrols and remote watch.
Research Scientist	4	[#7] Four full-time researchers (entomology/temporal specialists) to run experiments and analysis.

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst notes provide detailed line-item estimates and site-specific factors, so direct-cost estimates are reasonably grounded; uncertainty remains from anomalous behavior frequency, cross-jurisdiction legal demands, and low-probability high-impact events.

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