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SCP-3020 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-3020
Expected annual
$35.3M
One-time setup
$84.4M
Annual recurring
$34.6M
Personnel
150
Initial capital expenditure is approximately $84,375,000 driven by BSL-4 suite retrofits, high-temperature decontamination equipment, robotics, incinerators, and a contingency reserve. Recurring annual costs are about $34,597,500, dominated by specialized staff wages, ongoing research and surveillance, energy and waste disposal, and consumables (L-DOPA, PPE, robotic spares).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $84.4M
Facilities $29.5M
[#1, #2, #28, #29] Includes retrofit of five dedicated BSL-4 suites, construction/upgrade of quarantine cells (10 cells/Area assumed), plumbing/drain upgrades per Area, and morgue retrofits.
Equipment $25.6M
[#4, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11, #15, #17, #22, #23] Purchases of BSL-4-compatible robotic armatures, high-temp furnaces (walk-in + bench), incinerators (per facility), transport vehicles, backup generator systems, initial PPE stock, implantable pumps (per baseline patient), robotic high-temp design premium, rapid-response kits/equipment, and initial IT build.
Contingency Reserve $20.0M
[#30] Contingency reserve set-aside for large-scale outbreak, emergency procurement, or mass quarantine scale-up.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $7.2M
[#13, #18, #25] Initial diagnostic assay development/validation, initial multi-year research program seed funding, and sterilization/alternative inactivation R&D and validation.
Initial Training And Certification $2.0M
[#20] Initial BSL-4, robotics, and emergency-procedure training and certification program set-up.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $34.6M/yr
Staff Wages $17.0M/yr
[#5, #6, #14, #15, #22, #4] Salaries for specialized BSL-4 medical staff, BSL-4 research staff and technicians, epidemiological/contact-tracing teams, transport crews (salary portion), incident-response staffing standby, and per-patient medical administration staffing not covered by implantable pump maintenance.
Research And Monitoring $5.2M/yr
[#12, #13, #18, #25] Environmental surveillance testing, diagnostic kit production and QA, ongoing research program funding, and recurring sterilization/validation supplies.
Supplies And Consumables $3.7M/yr
[#7, #11, #24, #26] Recurring robotic consumables and sacrificial tooling, PPE replenishment, consumable laboratory reagents and sequencing kits, and replacement of equipment/items destroyed by 400°C bake cycles.
Facilities Maintenance $2.1M/yr
[#1, #8, #17, #28] Ongoing maintenance of BSL-4 suites, furnace/oven maintenance, backup power maintenance/fuel contracts, and drain/interceptor maintenance and scheduled sterilization.
Logistics And Transport $1.9M/yr
[#10, #15, #29] Third-party waste disposal contracts/incineration fees, vehicle operations/maintenance/fuel (non-salary portion), and mortuary handling/per-death incineration logistics.
Energy Costs $1.5M/yr
[#16] Extra electrical load for HVAC, continuous BSL-4 systems, and frequent 400°C bake cycles across Areas.
Psychological Care $1.0M/yr
[#19] Occupational health surveillance, mental-health services, and neurological monitoring for staff across Areas.
Long Term Patient Housing $750K/yr
[#27] Ongoing quarantine housing, utilities, food, welfare, and basic medical monitoring for baseline quarantined patients (assumes 5 patients at ~$150k/yr each).
Training And Certification $600K/yr
[#20] Annual refresher training, certification renewals, and drills for BSL-4, robotics, and emergency containment procedures.
Cover Story And Legal $500K/yr
[#21] Ongoing legal, PR, and cover-story operations budgets for containment failures, settlements, and secrecy maintenance.
It Maintenance $200K/yr
[#23] Secure medical records, genomic database upkeep, cybersecurity, offsite backups, and software maintenance.
L Dopa Drug Supply $182K/yr
[#3] Recurring L-DOPA injectable supply and sterile compounding for baseline patient population (assumes 5 patients at ~$36,500/yr each).
Medical Administration Per Patient $15K/yr
[#4] Recurring maintenance/support costs per baseline patient associated with implantable pump maintenance and minimal daily clinical oversight (baseline assumes pumps used).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $34.6M/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal year with current caseload (assumed 5 quarantined patients) and routine operations.
steady_low_caseload no_containment_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $35.6M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Localized contamination or single-area small breach requiring emergency response, extra disposal, and replacement of equipment.
localized_contamination single_area_escape
🚨 Major Breach $64.6M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline
Multi-area outbreak or public exposure forcing mass quarantine, large-scale emergency procurement, and potential settlements and disclosure management.
multi-area_escape mass_exposure public_disclosure
👥 Personnel 150 total
Role Count Notes
BSL-4 Physician 15 [#5] Approximately 2–4 physicians per Area; assumed 3/Area to cover shifts and on-call duties.
Specialized Nurse / Clinical Staff 40 [#5] Nursing staff for intrarenal administration support, patient care, and rounds across Areas.
Research Scientist 45 [#6, #18] BSL-4-trained microbiologists/virologists and senior research staff across Areas conducting experiments and leading research programs.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 25 [#15] Security and containment enforcement personnel distributed across Areas.
Epidemiologist / Contact Tracer 15 [#14] Staff for continuous contact tracing, case investigations, and database maintenance.
Engineer / Maintenance 5 [#8, #17] Facilities and equipment engineers for HVAC, furnaces, incinerators, and backup power systems.
Administrative Staff 5 [#23, #21] Program administration, records, and liaison for legal/PR coordination.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges but many key drivers (number of patients, whether robots are high-temp-tolerant vs sacrificial, and chosen research scale) are uncertain; estimates use mid-range assumptions and explicit assumptions about baseline caseload (5 patients).
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