SCP-3260 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-3260
Expected annual
$44.4M
One-time setup
$298.0M
Annual recurring
$42.1M
Personnel
10
One-time setup dominated by a large containment-scaleup contingency and facility build-out (~$298M total one-time); annual recurring costs driven by productivity losses, continuous vetting, and ongoing research/operations (~$42.1M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $298.0M
Containment Scaleup Contingency $275.0M
[#28] Large-scale emergency containment/scale-up contingency (one-time reserve for mass interventions/quarantine).
Facilities $10.5M
[#1] SCIF-level specialized wing build-out for Project Proxy; includes decon, observation rooms, secure storage and comms.
Contingency Reserve $6.0M
[#22] Set-aside contingency/insurance reserve fund (one-time allocation).
Digital Conversion $1.5M
[#6] Re-scanning/canonicalization of existing documents into cryptographically signed repository (one-time bulk conversion estimate).
Initial Case Investigations $1.0M
[#11] Initial intensive neuro/forensic investigations for initial wave of cases (100-case batch one-time).
Behavioral Monitoring Dev $650K
[#8] Development & integration of behavioral/anomaly-detection software (one-time dev/integration).
It Security Hardening $600K
[#20] One-time IT hardening, air-gap enforcement, hardware tokens, audits and initial certification efforts.
Document Handling Hardware $500K
[#5] Air-gapped terminals, hardware tokens, WORM media, biometrics, and hardened access hardware/software (one-time purchase and procedures).
Crisis Response Setup $425K
[#16] Training and equipment purchase for rapid-response/quarantine teams (one-time setup for 2–3 teams).
Secure Reading Room Outfitting $400K
[#7] Outfitting monitored reading rooms (CCTV, two-person rule infrastructure) for multiple rooms (one-time).
Screening Development $275K
[#4] Development of cognitive/perceptual screening battery (one-time dev costs).
Vetting Upgrade $250K
[#19] Upgrading background/continuous vetting infrastructure (one-time).
Training Overhaul $175K
[#24] One-time SOP update and organization-wide training overhaul costs.
Front Company Setup $150K
[#15] Initial creation/setup costs for front companies and plausible cover records (one-time).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $125K
[#13] EEG rigs, eye trackers, psychophysics benches and initial lab provisioning.
Medical Stockpile And Training $125K
[#3] Initial amnestic pharmacologic stockpile and anesthesiology/psychiatric training (one-time).
Presentation Hardware Rnd $125K
[#26] R&D/prototype costs for protective presentation hardware (one-time).
Archival Cold Storage $60K
[#25] Setup of long-term archival/cold-storage of untouched canonical documents (one-time).
Controlled Document Design $55K
[#14] Design and pilot of controlled/decoy document variants (one-time design and pilot run).
Cctv Expansion $50K
[#9] Expanded CCTV/audio installation and tamper-evident storage hardware (one-time installation for ~200 cameras).
Equipment $0
[]
Public Relations Incident Fund $0
[#23] Per-incident PR/disinformation budgets are scenario-driven rather than a fixed one-time cost; baseline one-time set to $0 here.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $42.1M/yr
Operational Productivity Loss $20.0M/yr
[#27] Organization-wide productivity loss from enforced protocols, quarantines, and two-person rules (estimated % impact on operations).
Continuous Vetting $6.0M/yr
[#19] Increased-frequency background checks and continuous vetting costs for Foundation personnel (scale-dependent; midrange for 10,000 staff).
Research And Monitoring $2.0M/yr
[#12] Longitudinal research program funding, multi-year studies, subject compensation, IRB/oversight.
Breach Investigation And Backfill $1.6M/yr
[#21] Investigation costs per breach and backfill/training to replace compromised personnel (annualized).
Staff Wages $1.6M/yr
[#2] Permanent Project Proxy core team salaries incl. overhead (8–12 FTEs; senior scientists, clinicians, analysts, program management).
Personnel Counseling $1.5M/yr
[#18] Counseling and retraining budgets for affected and exposed staff (~500 employees/year at midrange).
Screening Administration $1.2M/yr
[#4] Annual cost to administer cognitive screening to Foundation personnel (~10,000 screens at midrange per-test).
Reserve Replenishment $1.2M/yr
[#22] Annual replenishment for contingency/insurance reserves.
Personnel Redundancy Costs $1.2M/yr
[#10] Productivity loss and replacement costs from enforced job rotation and reassignment of susceptible staff.
Facilities Maintenance $1.0M/yr
[#1] Annual facility maintenance, utilities, security system upkeep for specialized wing.
Per Case Investigations $1.0M/yr
[#11] Ongoing intensive forensic/neuroimaging investigations per confirmed case (annualized expectation).
Cover Story And Legal $600K/yr
[#15] Annual legal/cover-up budgets for contractor payments, settlements, and cover maintenance.
Reading Room Observer Salaries $600K/yr
[#7] Salaries for dedicated monitored-reading-room observers enforcing two-person rule.
Crisis Response Readiness $500K/yr
[#16] Standby salaries and readiness costs for rapid-response quarantine teams.
Medical And Amnestic Treatments $300K/yr
[#3] Recurring per-treatment costs for amnestic administration and medical monitoring (assumes ~50 treatments/yr).
It Security Maintenance $300K/yr
[#20] Ongoing IT audits, maintenance, and air-gap enforcement costs.
Public Relations Retainer $300K/yr
[#23] Baseline PR/legal retainer for external narrative management and rapid response.
Training Recurring $300K/yr
[#24] Recurring training, drills, and SOP refreshers across the organization.
Behavioral Monitoring Operations $250K/yr
[#8] Operations, analyst time, and maintenance for behavioral/anomaly-detection systems.
Digital Repository Maintenance $200K/yr
[#6] Ongoing updates, version control, and repository operations.
Document Controls Maintenance $150K/yr
[#5] Maintenance/licenses for hardened document handling hardware and procedures.
Surveillance Storage Maintenance $90K/yr
[#9] Storage, retention, and maintenance costs for expanded CCTV/audio systems.
Supplies And Consumables $30K/yr
[#13] Lab consumables and routine calibration/maintenance for cognitive/neuro testing rigs.
Document Destruction $30K/yr
[#17] Ongoing secure destruction/sanitization of compromised documentation.
Presentation Hardware Testing $30K/yr
[#26] Ongoing iteration/testing of protective presentation hardware prototypes.
Controlled Document Production $27K/yr
[#14] Ongoing production and QA for controlled/decoy document variants.
Archival Maintenance $12K/yr
[#25] Environmental monitoring and access controls for cold-storage archival copies.
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $42.1M/yr
74.5% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; routine operations, research, and preventive measures only.
no_incident routine_operations
🚨 Minor Incident $43.8M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$1.7M vs baseline
Isolated document compromise or single-site outbreak requiring investigations, targeted amnestics, limited purge, and PR response.
isolated_leak single-site_outbreak document_compromise
🚨 Major Breach $52.1M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Site-level breach with many affected personnel requiring mass investigations, large amnestic campaigns, replacement hiring, and substantial PR/legal costs.
site_breach mass_document_exposure multiple_affected_staff
🚨 Containment Scaleup Outbreak $332.1M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$290.0M vs baseline
Widespread, high-impact outbreak requiring emergency nationwide/international scale-up: mass amnestics, full quarantine, large contingency spending.
widespread_transmission mass_document_exposure K/XK-class_escalation
👥 Personnel 10 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist (cognitive neuroscientist) 3 Senior scientists responsible for study design and neurotesting; part of the 8–12 FTE core team. [#2]
Clinical Psychologist / Psychiatrist 3 Clinical staff for assessment, treatment, and amnestic administration oversight. [#2]
Behavioral Interrogator 2 Conducts interviews and behavioral reconstruction for suspected cases. [#2]
Data Analyst 1 Manages behavioral monitoring analytics and data from screening programs. [#2]
Program Manager 1 Coordinates Project Proxy operations and administrative oversight. [#2]
📋 Confidence Notes
Mid-range cost estimates were used (midpoints of ranges) and many items (e.g., scale of vetting, productivity loss, and potential outbreak scale) remain highly uncertain; scenario probabilities and contingency sizing are judgement-based.
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