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SCP-3353 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-3353
Expected annual
$3.5M
One-time setup
$1.7M
Annual recurring
$3.4M
Personnel
26
Initial capital and R&D in year one (~$1.66M) is driven by contingency reserve, sensor R&D and vehicle purchases; ongoing annual costs (~$3.40M/yr) are dominated by personnel (historians, social-media team, and regional rapid-response squads), legal/PR, and lab testing/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.7M
Contingency Reserve $1.0M
[#20] Reserve fund for outbreak/scale-up (selected mid-range $1,000,000 ONE-TIME reserve).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $300K
[#11] Targeted advanced research contract / one-time advanced analyses (outsourced mid-range estimate ~$300,000).
Equipment $150K
[#6] Purchase of 3 marked/unmarked response vans and vehicle-fit equipment (~3 × $50,000 = $150,000).
Sensor R And D $100K
[#19] Pilot R&D for detection sensors (multispectral/thermal/other) estimated as a small pilot ~$100,000 ONE-TIME.
Portable Site Kits $60K
[#7] Three portable site-securing kits (fencing, signage, lighting), ~$20,000 each = $60,000 ONE-TIME.
Facilities $25K
[#9] Installation/buildout of a small walk-in cooler / climate-controlled storage for perishable samples (~$25,000 chosen mid-range).
Database Development $25K
[#14] Evidence logging/database development/customization one-time cost ~$25,000.
Personal Protective Equipment $5K
[#8] Initial PPE and sample collection kit setup ~$5,000 ONE-TIME.
Illustrative Summary $0
[#22] Illustrative consolidated first-year capital/R&D range referenced but not double-counted here.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.4M/yr
Staff Wages $2.1M/yr
[#1, #2, #4, #14] Salaries + benefits: folklore prediction team ($250,000/yr), social-media monitoring team ($850,000/yr), field rapid-response teams (12 personnel × $80,000 = $960,000/yr), sysadmin/data curator ($60,000/yr).
Administrative Overhead And Insurance $680K/yr
[#21] Administrative overhead, HR, payroll processing, compliance and insurance analogs estimated at 25% of direct recurring costs (~$680,300/yr based on direct recurring ~$2,721,200).
Cover Story And Legal $220K/yr
[#15, #16] Legal/public-affairs retainer and local liaison (~$150,000/yr) plus PR/content production (~$70,000/yr) = $220,000/yr.
Research And Monitoring $180K/yr
[#10] Routine laboratory analysis of recovered samples (mid-range estimate $180,000/yr based on sampling/triage).
Logistics And Transport $52K/yr
[#5, #6] Annual vehicle operating costs (fuel/insurance/maintenance ~$30,000/yr) plus per-event travel/overtime (~$21,600/yr) = $51,600/yr.
Medical And Amnestic Supplies $46K/yr
[#12] Amnestic administrations and medical monitoring: estimated 72 administrations × $500 avg = $36,000/yr plus stockpile/training ~$10,000/yr = $46,000/yr.
Training And Exercises $45K/yr
[#18] Regular training for response teams, instructors and exercises (~$30k–$60k; mid chosen $45,000/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $38K/yr
[#3, #8] Social media tools/hosting/content expenses (~$36,000/yr) plus per-event PPE/sample consumables (~$1,800/yr).
Biohazard Disposal $11K/yr
[#13] Disposal/contracted waste fees for spoiled items (estimated midpoint ~$10,800/yr).
Portable Site Kits Maintenance $5K/yr
[#7] Replacement parts and consumables for portable site kits ~$5,000/yr.
Facilities Maintenance $3K/yr
[#9] Annual electricity/maintenance for small cooler and storage (~$3,000/yr chosen mid-range).
Public Incident Response Kits $2K/yr
[#17] Leaflets, faux-artifacts, small printed giveaways for public incidents ~$2,000/yr.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.4M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, typical event frequency (~36 events/yr) and no major escalation.
regular_manifestations no major spread standard staffing levels
🚨 Minor Incident $3.7M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$320K vs baseline
Increased local activity leading to more deployments, overtime, and elevated lab/amnestic usage but no international spread.
50% increase in events temporary surge in public sightings higher lab and travel costs
🚨 International Spread $5.9M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Confirmed spread to additional countries requiring international deployments, large scale-up of staffing, and emergency R&D/PR suppression.
confirmed overseas manifestations public attention surge need for rapid scale-up and international coordination
👥 Personnel 26 total
Role Count Notes
Historian / Folklore Specialist 3 [#1] 2 full-time specialists + 1 part-time research assistant (counted as 3 individuals).
Social Media Researcher 10 [#2] Disinformation/social monitoring team of at least 10 researchers.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#4] Field rapid-response intercepting agents across 3 regions (2 intercepting agents per region = 6).
Supervisor 3 [#4] One supervisor per regional rapid-response team (3 supervisors).
Medical Officer / Medic 3 [#4] One medic/technical per regional rapid-response team (3 medics), included in field team salaries.
Data Curator / Sysadmin 1 [#14] Sysadmin/data curator supporting evidence/database (~$60,000/yr).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item estimates and staffing counts, enabling a mid-confidence cost model; uncertainty remains for R&D scope, contingency sizing, and sample triage rates which affect lab/testing and scale-up costs.
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