SCP-3354 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3354
Expected annual
$1.7M
One-time setup
$2.1M
Annual recurring
$1.7M
Personnel
13
One-time setup capital is estimated at $2,148,500 driven by land acquisition, fence and guard post construction and equipment (gates, cameras, vehicles); recurring annual operations are estimated at $1,687,625/yr driven primarily by security staffing, insurance/reserve, and ongoing maintenance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.1M
Facilities $1.3M
[#1, #2, #4] Land acquisition, anti-climb perimeter fence installation, and construction of three guard posts (includes foundations and basic site works).
Equipment $504K
[#6, #8, #9, #10, #11, #12, #16, #20] Automated gates, CCTV/NVR and sensors, communications hardware, power hardware (solar/UPS/trenching), patrol vehicles, UAVs, one-time evidence storage setup, and signage production/installation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $250K
[#15] Instrumentation and expendable test equipment for geophysical surveys, data-loggers and test vehicle preparation.
Front Organization Setup $50K
[#17] Legal formation, permits, signage/materials for the nature-preserve cover, initial website and community liaison setup.
Legal And Covert Procurement $40K
[#18] Attorney fees, easements/permit costs, and covert procurement routing/setup.
Training And Sop Setup $20K
[#22] Initial SOP development, roll-out training and one-time setup costs for audits and training programs.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.7M/yr
Staff Wages $900K/yr
[#5] Guard staffing (24/7 coverage at three posts) including wages, benefits and payroll taxes for ~12–15 FTE (model uses 13 FTE equivalent).
Contingency Reserve $220K/yr
[#24] Contingency reserve (~15% of recurring operations) for unanticipated repairs, legal actions and unexpected replacements.
Insurance And Compensation $100K/yr
[#21] Liability insurance premiums plus clandestine reserve/compensation/hush fund for potential civilian injury claims.
Replacement Fund $100K/yr
[#25] Amortized capital replacement and upgrade sinking fund for cameras, gates, batteries, vehicles and structures.
Cover Story And Legal $60K/yr
[#17, #18] Recurring payroll/PR/permits for the front organization plus legal retainer and liaison fees.
Administrative Overhead $60K/yr
[#23] On-site administrative staff, scheduling, bookkeeping and permit management (may be part-time/full-time equivalent).
Research And Monitoring $40K/yr
[#15] Consumables, replacement test vehicles, expendables and laboratory analysis budget for the testing program.
Medical And Emergency Contracts $40K/yr
[#13] First-aid supplies, EMT training for guards and EMS/medevac standby/retainer costs.
Incident Response Cleanup $40K/yr
[#14] Annual budget for removal of wrecks, contaminated soil cleanup and per-incident recovery logistics.
Facilities Maintenance $38K/yr
[#3, #19] Perimeter fence annual maintenance/repairs and environmental/grounds maintenance (brush/tree management, trail upkeep).
Cctv Storage And Maintenance $20K/yr
[#8] Recording storage, licensing, environmental camera servicing and sensor maintenance.
Forensic Storage And Analysis $20K/yr
[#16] Ongoing storage rental, chain-of-custody management and forensic analysis costs.
Patrol Vehicles Maintenance $15K/yr
[#11] Fuel, routine maintenance and registration/insurance for perimeter patrol vehicles.
Gate Electronics Maintenance $10K/yr
[#7] Service contracts and software subscriptions for automated gates and access control systems.
Training And Audits $10K/yr
[#22] Recurring refresher trainings, SOP recertification and periodic containment audits.
Drone Maintenance $8K/yr
[#12] UAV maintenance, operator recertification/training and spare parts.
Power Supply Operation $4K/yr
[#10] Electricity, UPS maintenance or solar system upkeep and minor battery replacements.
Communications Service $2K/yr
[#9] Secure cellular/satellite backhaul service, radio repeaters/maintenance subscriptions.
Supplies And Consumables $1K/yr
[#20] Small recurring replacements (signage replacements, minor consumables).
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.7M/yr
75.0% probability / year
Normal operating year with no major incidents; routine maintenance, staffing, research and cover costs only.
no major incidents routine testing only
🚨 Minor Incident $1.7M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$60K vs baseline
One non-catastrophic vehicle incident requiring medevac, recovery and modest legal/cleanup expenses.
single medevac/major cleanup small settlement or repair
🚨 Major Incident $2.2M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Significant multi-vehicle or heavy-damage event with large cleanup, replacement of equipment, multiple medical evacuations and likely legal exposure.
explosive/large-damage event multiple serious injuries and heavy legal claims
👥 Personnel 13 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#5] Front-line guard staff to provide 24/7 coverage across three posts (bulk of staff_wages).
Security Supervisor 1 [#5] On-site supervision/shift lead included in guard staffing estimates.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide ranges for each line item and a rough-order summary, allowing a reasonable mid-range estimate; uncertainty remains from incident frequency/severity, covert procurement premiums and local land-price variability.
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