SCP-3391 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3391
Expected annual
$23.9M
One-time setup
$89.3M
Annual recurring
$23.1M
Personnel
112
Upfront capital (vessels, ROVs/submersible, and biosecure lab build) is large (~$89.4M one-time), while annual operations are dominated by ship operations, crew wages, and contingency/reserve costs (~$23.1M/yr). Main drivers are maritime assets and continuous scientific monitoring plus diplomatic/cover expenses.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $89.3M
Equipment $61.8M
[#1, #4, #5, #6, #10, #12, #13, #20, #23] Capital purchase and fit of patrol vessels; on-board sensor suites; ROV/AUV/manned submersible procurement; support/launch equipment and deck retrofits; buoy/seabed sensor network deployment; mobile incinerator; decontamination setup; helicopter purchase; initial data/server hardware.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $23.0M
[#8, #9] Biosecure (marine BSL-3/4 equivalent) laboratory build/retrofit and capital laboratory instruments (sequencers, mass spec, HPLC/GC, microscopes, cryostorage).
Facilities $3.0M
[#7] Shore-side support facility build/retrofit (pier, warehouse, wet lab staging, accommodations).
Decommissioning Reserve One Time $1.0M
[#29] Estimated future disposal/retirement/decommissioning reserve for major assets.
Containment Research Pilot Trials $300K
[#27] One-time pilot field trials / small-scale containment R&D.
Amnestic Initial Stock $150K
[#14] Initial production/stockpile of amnestics and field kits.
Legal And Contract Setup One Time $100K
[#16] One-time legal/contracting setup costs for agreements with Greek authorities.
Pr Campaign One Time $50K
[#17] One-time public relations / signage / outreach campaign to establish SPAMI cover.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $23.1M/yr
Staff Wages $8.5M/yr
[#3, #18] Crew salaries and benefits for fully-crewed patrol rotation (~100 naval personnel) and scientific personnel salaries (~12 specialists).
Facilities Maintenance $7.2M/yr
[#2, #4, #7, #10, #20, #23] Ship operational costs (fuel, docking, maintenance); communications/sonar upkeep; shore facility lease/operate; buoy/seabed sensor maintenance; aerial asset ops; data storage/backup maintenance.
Contingency Reserve $2.0M/yr
[#24] Ongoing reserve fund for anomalous escalation, large-scale remediation, or emergency response.
Cover Story And Legal $1.6M/yr
[#16, #17, #22, #28, #30] Diplomatic reimbursements and grants to Greek authorities, ongoing PR/cover maintenance, insurance/indemnities/legal contingency, media incident response, and local community compensation.
Research And Monitoring $1.4M/yr
[#11, #18, #27] Water/tissue assay program, operational research budget, and ongoing specialized containment R&D.
Rov Operations $800K/yr
[#19, #5] ROV/submersible operations, pilots, technicians, spare parts and lifecycle maintenance.
Supplies And Consumables $650K/yr
[#9, #12, #13, #14] Laboratory consumables and cold-chain; hazardous waste disposal and storage; decontamination consumables and PPE; amnestic replacement/consumables.
Logistics And Transport $300K/yr
[#21] Freight/charter contingency, heavy-lift and sample transport between Crete and off-site labs.
Detention And Civilian Handling $300K/yr
[#15] Per-incident and annual contingency costs for detaining civilian vessels, lodging, medical screening and amnestic administration (annual contingency fund).
Training Exercises $200K/yr
[#25] Regular drills, boarding/amnesty deployment exercises, decon drills, and joint exercises with Greek authorities.
Medical Monitoring $150K/yr
[#26] Occupational health screening, hormone panels, cancer screening and ongoing medical monitoring for staff.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $23.1M/yr
65.0% probability / year
Normal operational year under Foundation-owned asset model with no major incidents.
routine patrols scheduled research campaigns no significant incidents
🚨 Lease Partnership $25.1M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Foundation leases vessels / partners with Greek Navy to reduce capital outlays but pays higher annual fees.
strategic decision to lease increased annual reimbursements
🚨 Minor Incident $23.4M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Single moderate maritime incident requiring boarding, detention, amnestic use, and limited media/legal response.
civilian breach of exclusion zone board-and-amnestic response local media attention
🚨 Major Breach $33.1M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Significant containment breach or large-scale exposure requiring MTF deployment, asset loss/repair, major legal action and remediation.
large anomalous activity multiple civilian exposures asset loss or major legal claims
👥 Personnel 112 total
Role Count Notes
Naval crew (officers/engineers/deckhands/cooks/medics) 100 [#3] Full crewing for 4 vessels with rotation; estimate based on 20–40 personnel/ship.
Research Scientist / Technical Staff 12 [#18] Marine biologists, ecotoxicologists, geneticists, pathologists, chemists and data analysts funded in recurring research salaries.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based directly on analyst-provided ranges; many line items (vessel class, lease vs purchase, frequency/severity of incidents) have wide ranges which drives uncertainty. Line-item mappings are explicit but high-level assumptions (asset classes, staffing levels) introduce medium confidence.
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