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SCP-3457 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-3457
Expected annual
$426.9M
One-time setup
$1.6B
Annual recurring
$333.9M
Personnel
10
One-time setup costs dominated by a large emergency contingency reserve and long-term R&D/containment construction (~$1.6B). Recurring annual costs driven by intelligence/MTF readiness, contingency replenishment, liaison, and ongoing R&D/monitoring (~$334M/yr baseline).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.6B
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.4B
[#3, #11, #13, #21, #20] Cryptographic/secret-sharing development & audit seed, large initial R&D program seed, modeling environment setup and initial exercises, long-term R&D program seed, and initial emergency contingency reserve seed.
Facilities $84.2M
[#1, #10, #14, #25] Vault construction and hardened containment: distributed archival vault setups, high-assurance containment vault build(s), crisis command center construction, and training facility setup.
Equipment $82.9M
[#5, #6, #12, #15, #26, #9] Procurement of MTF vehicles/equipment, tamper-evident containers and transport vehicles, sensor network deployment hardware, secure communications systems, prototype equipment development, and museum sting display setup.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $333.9M/yr
Emergency Contingency Replenishment $125.0M/yr
[#20] Annual replenishment target for the emergency contingency/catastrophe fund to restore reserve used in major events.
Cover Story And Legal $54.5M/yr
[#7, #9, #16, #22, #23] Joint liaison/funding to partner orgs, museum sting operational support and indemnity, legal/diplomatic/cover-story budgets, PR/misinformation/media-control campaigns, and insurance/indemnity for cooperating third parties.
Research And Monitoring $51.9M/yr
[#3, #11, #12, #13, #19, #21, #26, #18, #15, #25] Recurring audits/compliance, ongoing R&D & prototype ops, sensor network operations & data analysis, annual exercises/red-team war-games, memetic sanitization teams, long-term R&D maintenance, field-kit maintenance/calibration, psychological program overhead/treatment reserves, secure comms maintenance, and annual training budgets.
Logistics And Transport $48.8M/yr
[#5, #6, #17, #24] MTF readiness/salaries and operations, per-transit/secure movement operations, covert acquisition logistics/black ops allocation, and secure courier/chain-of-custody routine operations.
Intelligence Operations $35.0M/yr
[#8] Worldwide HUMINT/SIGINT/covert penetrations, bounties, and long-term surveillance to locate qualifying artifacts.
Facilities Maintenance $16.2M/yr
[#2, #14, #10] Ongoing archive vault operations/maintenance, crisis command center operations/staffing, and maintenance of high-assurance containment vaults.
Staff Wages $2.5M/yr
[#4] Ten senior thaumaturgic researchers/archivists at fully burdened costs (hazard/secrecy pay, benefits, overhead).
Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
[]
Unbounded High Value Contingency $0/yr
[#27] High-value global military coordination and aftermath operations are effectively unbounded at agency level; modeled as low-probability scenarios below.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $333.9M/yr
82.9% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with routine operations, intelligence work, MTF readiness, R&D, and contingency replenishment at planned levels.
routine_intelligence_and_ops scheduled_R&D_and_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $353.9M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline
Localized breach attempt, failed rite, or costly recovery requiring multiple MTF deployments, covert acquisitions, legal payouts, and extra intelligence surge.
failed_rite_attempt museum_sting_failure targeted_recovery_operations
🚨 Major Breach $2.3B/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.0B vs baseline
Significant partial activation or multi-site coordinated attempt requiring large-scale military/civil support, reconstruction, mass medical/psychological response, and international coordination.
multi-site_activation regional_demiurge_emergence large_scale_containment_ops
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $50.3B/yr
0.1% probability / year +$50.0B vs baseline
Successful completion of the Rite producing a demiurge or GR-class global occult catastrophe, forcing national/federal disaster-level mobilization and open-ended costs.
rite_completion demiurge_emergence global_cascade
👥 Personnel 10 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Classified Archivist 10 [#4] Highly vetted thaumaturgic researchers and classified archivists (fully burdened costs included in staff_wages).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use midpoints of wide analyst ranges and require many assumptions (number of vaults, MTF allocation, R&D scale, and contingency sizing). One-time contingency and catastrophic impacts are highly uncertain; recurring baseline is better-constrained but still variable due to operational tempo and international cooperation.
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