SCP-3513 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3513
Expected annual
$4.6M
One-time setup
$2.5M
Annual recurring
$4.5M
Personnel
60
Baseline annual recurring cost approximately $4.45M/yr driven primarily by nationwide undercover hospital placements and local staff/security; one-time capital expenditures for drilling, geophysics and contingency reserves could add ~$2.45M in an aggressive initial program.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.5M
Initial Portal Recon $500K
[#28] Placeholder one-time budget for an initial portal/probe reconnaissance program (low-end placeholder).
Geophys Installation $400K
[#16] Deployment/installation of local geophysical/seismograph network (10 stations midpoint).
Hospital Cover Setup $375K
[#11] One-time cover identity setup/training for undercover hospital placements (50 agents × setup cost).
Legal Contingency Reserve $250K
[#19] One-time contingency reserve / legal settlement fund (initial reserve).
Emergency Response Reserve $250K
[#23] Emergency/rapid response reserve (initial fund to be maintained).
Equipment $204K
[#2, #4, #6, #9, #10, #17, #21] Generator/grid hookup and wiring, CCTV/motion/security installation, initial access/signage, PPE startup, sample containers & vehicle retrofit, drone purchase/training, and initial IT/server installs aggregated here.
Decommissioning $150K
[#26] Estimated end-of-life remediation/decommissioning costs (midpoint).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $140K
[#8] Secure autopsy room / morgue upgrades (build/retrofit) and associated biosafety fixtures.
Initial Core Drilling $138K
[#15] Initial survey and 100 m core drilling costs to determine depth (midpoint estimate).
Training Setup $40K
[#24] Initial training program and SOP development costs.
Pr Setup $6K
[#20] One-time setup for public-facing cover story materials and paperwork.
Facilities $0
[#1] Bunker construction cost noted but containment bunker present per article; no additional one-time construction budget assumed for baseline.
Onsite Mri Install $0
[#7] On-site MRI/CT installation is optional; baseline assumes contracting out scans so no one-time capital for MRI in baseline.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.5M/yr
Staff Wages $3.2M/yr
[#3, #5, #11] Four permanent cover-staff (~$120k/yr), regional guarding/monitoring contracts (~$80k/yr), and nationwide hospital placements (~$3.0M/yr for ~50 undercover agents) aggregated into wages/compensation.
Research And Monitoring $544K/yr
[#7, #13, #14, #16, #25] Contracted imaging scans (option A), forensic testing/lab supplies, neurosurgery/veterinary research program costs, geophysical monitoring operations, and baseline research program operational costs.
Cover Story And Legal $412K/yr
[#12, #19, #20] Medical record manipulation/cover-up operational costs, legal/government liaison retainers, and PR/cover-story maintenance.
Contingency Replenish $100K/yr
[#23] Annual replenishment target for emergency/contingency fund if expended.
Facilities Maintenance $83K/yr
[#2, #4, #6, #17, #27] Generator fuel/maintenance, security system monitoring & maintenance, signage replacement, patrol costs, and local utilities/lease/taxes aggregated here.
Supplies And Consumables $48K/yr
[#8, #9, #22] Autopsy/morgue consumables, recurring PPE/disposables, and hazardous waste disposal fees.
Employee Health Surveillance $30K/yr
[#18] Routine medical/neurological surveillance and mental health support for staff and undercover agents.
Logistics And Transport $12K/yr
[#10] Transport fuel/operations for secure sample movement and vehicle ops (recurring).
Training And Sops $12K/yr
[#24] Recurring refresher training and SOP updates/translations.
Data Operations $10K/yr
[#21] Secure backups, encrypted servers and secure communications operations and maintenance.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.5M/yr
84.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with routine monitoring, staff payroll, contracted diagnostics, and modest research activity.
no incidents routine monitoring contracted diagnostics
🚨 Minor Incident $5.1M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$600K vs baseline
Localized accidental exposure or detectable anomaly requiring emergency response, extra autopsies, PR/legal actions and partial use of contingency funds.
accidental public sighting or local cluster single-site breach requiring covert response
🚨 Major Breach $8.0M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$3.5M vs baseline
Large-scale exposure or lethal event requiring extensive international containment, covert operations, and major legal/liaison expenditures.
mass exposure or high-casualty event international investigation or media attention
🚨 Research Breakthrough Scale Up $6.0M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Decision to pursue substantive portal research and probe campaigns, scaling research staff, specialized equipment and international collaboration.
research decision to escalate allocation for probes or advanced experiments
👥 Personnel 60 total
Role Count Notes
Site Manager / Technician 1 [#3] One site manager/technician included in four permanent cover-staff.
Maintenance / Utility Technician 2 [#3] Two maintenance/utility technicians included in four permanent cover-staff.
Security Officer / Liaison 1 [#3] One security/liaison included in four permanent cover-staff.
Undercover Hospital Agent 50 [#11] Undercover Foundation agents placed in hospitals (baseline assumption: 50placements).
Remote Monitoring / Rapid Response Team 6 [#5] Regional monitoring and rapid-response coverage (representative full-time equivalents for rotating teams).
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items (nationwide hospital placements, contingency reserves, portal research and deep drilling) are estimates with wide ranges; baseline recurring elements are better defined but open-ended research and major-incident costs carry significant uncertainty.
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