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SCP-3514 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3514
Expected annual
$3.5M
One-time setup
$10.1M
Annual recurring
$3.2M
Personnel
13
Initial establishment and security equipment drive one-time capital costs (~$10.05M), while ongoing intelligence, staffing, and operations (bribery, HUMINT/SIGINT, research) are the main recurring drivers (~$3.25M/yr). High contingency reserves (escalation/retake funds, long-tail emergency) dominate the one-time total.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $10.1M
Containment Escalation Reserve $3.0M
[#26] Reserved capital for rapid escalation (hardened facility or full site build) if anomaly behavior changes.
Equipment $1.9M
[#2, #4, #5, #8, #9, #20] Surveillance suite (~$700,000), power generation & redundancy (~$150,000), secure communications hardware (~$200,000), vehicles & up-armoring (~$575,000), recording & sensor array (~$200,000), secure off-site hardware (~$100,000).
Facilities $1.1M
[#1, #3] Perimeter fencing (~$750,000) and containerized field research base/modifications (~$300,000).
Long Tail Emergency Fund $1.0M
[#27] Initial emergency fund for political fallout, reparations, or large-scale relocation; planning assumes $1M+.
Retake Planning $750K
[#17] Operational planning and options analysis for a contingency retake (~$500k–1M range).
Diplomatic Legal Reserve $500K
[#16] One-time contingency fund / reserve for emergency diplomatic/legal payments or rapid engagement.
Insurance Reserve $500K
[#21] One-time reserve fund for civil suits, evacuations, or emergency payouts.
Sigint Humint Recruitment $350K
[#15] One-time recruitment/onboarding of SIGINT/HUMINT assets and initial set-up.
Archive Expungement Operation $250K
[#14] One-time targeted archive expungement / information-operations event cost estimate.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $200K
[#10, #11, #23] Evidence handling/sample storage setup (~$20,000), archive digitization/purchases (~$55,000), seed equipment for long-term research (~$125,000).
Cover Organization Setup $200K
[#12] One-time establishment costs for front organization / archaeological cover (registration, signage, initial PR).
Local Bribery Major Payouts $125K
[#13] One-time major payouts for critical documents / permits if required.
Medevac Retainer $125K
[#25] One-time retainer for contracted medevac/extraction providers.
Public Cover Map Operations $62K
[#24] One-time map/record manipulation operations and related PR setup.
Psychological Training $15K
[#18] One-time trauma/resilience training for staff.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.2M/yr
Staff Wages $920K/yr
[#6, #7] Core on-site team salaries (1 Lead researcher, 2 field researchers, 1 historian/linguist, 2 technicians ~ $610k) plus local guards/drivers/liaison contractors (~$310k).
Research And Monitoring $660K/yr
[#9, #11, #14, #23] Storage/maintenance for recording & sensors (~$20k), ongoing archive/research/translation work (~$140k), recurring archive expungement / counter-intel monitoring (~$150k), long-term research program funding (~$350k).
Sigint Humint $550K/yr
[#15] Ongoing SIGINT/HUMINT cell operating costs (small clandestine cell, monitoring and infiltration efforts ~$300k–800k).
Cover Story And Legal $280K/yr
[#12, #16, #24] Ongoing front-organization operating budget (~$115k), legal/diplomatic retainer (~$125k), and local PR/map-change activities (~$40k).
Local Bribery Budget $200K/yr
[#13] Recurring covert payments to informants, officials, landowners and contingency for local contractors (~$100k–300k).
Facilities Maintenance $185K/yr
[#1, #3, #2, #4] Perimeter fence maintenance/power for deterents (~$40k), field base utilities/upkeep (~$45k), surveillance maintenance/bandwidth (~$60k), generator/solar maintenance (~$40k).
Logistics And Transport $110K/yr
[#8, #25] Vehicle fuel/maintenance (~$90k) and expected per-year emergency extraction/medevac usage retainer/ops (~$20k).
Long Tail Monitoring $100K/yr
[#27] Ongoing small reserve for political fallout monitoring, reparations planning, and long-tail legal contingencies.
Cultural Consultancy $70K/yr
[#19] Contract specialists for religious/cultural liaison and interpretation (~$40k–100k).
Secure Communications Services $60K/yr
[#5] SAT bandwidth, encrypted comms fees and ongoing comms services (~$40k–80k).
Data Security And Backup $45K/yr
[#20] Off-site hosting, encrypted backups rotation and hardened archival services (~$30k–60k).
Psychological Care $30K/yr
[#18] Regular mental health checks, counseling and debriefing for personnel (~$20k–40k).
Training And Skills $20K/yr
[#22] Ongoing language, historical training, emergency medical and OPSEC refreshers (~$10k–30k).
Supplies And Consumables $17K/yr
[#10] PPE, sterilization, sample containers, chemical reagents and routine consumables (~$10k–25k range; midpoint used).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.2M/yr
87.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with full ongoing operations and no major incidents.
routine monitoring no exposures steady intelligence operations
🚨 Minor Incident $3.4M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Localized equipment failure, small exposure, or limited PR incident requiring repairs, extra overtime and short-term PR/containment.
camera/fence sabotage local leak or unwanted publicity
🚨 Major Breach $13.2M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
ORIA or local authorities discover the site or a large-scale exposure requiring emergency operations and possible retake/strike actions.
discovery by ORIA large public exposure direct physical takeover
🚨 Political Exposure And Reparations $5.2M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Significant political fallout leading to reparations, public diplomacy effort and long-term mitigation.
public scandal legal actions or mass claims
👥 Personnel 13 total
Role Count Notes
Lead Researcher 1 [#6] Senior responsible scientist (approx $150k/yr).
Field Researcher 2 [#6] Two field researchers for observation/interviews (~$120k/yr each).
Historian / Linguist 1 [#6] Specialist in regional languages and historical sources (~$100k/yr).
Technician / Maintenance 2 [#6] Two technicians for equipment, comms, and site maintenance (~$40k/yr each).
Security Officer / Local Guard 5 [#7] Local guards contracted for 24/7 watch (4–6 range; midpoint used).
Driver / Handler 2 [#7] Drivers/handlers for logistics and discreet transport.
📋 Confidence Notes
Line-item estimates are based on detailed analyst figures and realistic procurement ranges, but political risk, clandestine pricing variation, and the optionality of intelligence/retake expenditures introduce significant uncertainty.
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