SCP-3645 — SCP-3645 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-3645 Unknown ~ medium confidence

SCP-3645

Expected annual

$2.2M

One-time setup

$4.4M

Annual recurring

$2.2M

Personnel

Initial one-time readiness and contingency purchases (including an optional dedicated smallsat) dominate upfront costs (~$4.36M). Annual operations are driven by ongoing orbital monitoring, emergency modeling, legal/cover overhead and rapid-response readiness, totaling roughly $2.19M/year.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.4M

Dedicated Smallsat Initial $3.0M

[#1] Higher-fidelity option: dedicated smallsat/platform initial development and launch (midpoint).

Contingency Reserve $500K

[#20] Recommended one-time contingency reserve allocation (partial reserve held as initial fund).

Facilities $340K

[#4, #11, #18] Residence acquisition/repairs, single containment-cell retrofit, and public-incident cosmetic/structural repairs.

Equipment $160K

[#2, #14] Emergency re-entry/impact modelling software/licenses and one-time security equipment purchase.

Specialized Materials Testing $150K

[#15] One-time purchase and testing of specialty containment materials and prototype tests.

Witness Relocation $60K

[#8] Immediate witness relocation/relocation payments and cover identity setup (representative one-time cost).

Mnestic One Time $60K

[#19] One-time mnestic procedures/aftercare for a household (midpoint).

Communication Hardening Initial $45K

[#16] Initial Faraday shielding/commms hardening and RF engineering setup.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $20K

[#17] Initial diagnostic battery and basic lab startup for non-invasive tests.

Placement And Vetting $15K

[#13] One-time placement and vetting costs for orphanage/resettlement if demanifestation confirmed.

Ham Radio Setup $4K

[#3] UPS/backups and spare replacement unit for in-situ HAM radio.

Automation Audio Setup $2K

[#5] Automation and secure storage setup for scheduled playback of recording.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.2M/yr

Research And Monitoring $650K/yr

[#1, #2, #17, #22] Baseline orbital/trajectory monitoring contracts and data processing (~$500k/yr) plus on-call re-entry modelling/maintenance and modest research monitoring costs.

Logistics And Transport $450K/yr

[#10] Standby rapid-response readiness (team, aircraft/charter availability, vehicles)—annual standby costs (per-deployment costs captured separately).

Staff Wages $350K/yr

[#1, #6] Salaries for monitoring analyst(s), small modelling staff and liaison time (includes marginal Agent Belgrave allocation if part-time).

Research Program $200K/yr

[#17] Small research team budget for physiology/ mechanism study (baseline modest program).

Cover Story And Legal $100K/yr

[#9] Annual overhead to maintain fronts, legal counsel, forgery/document suppression and cover organization costs.

Contingency Reserve Annual $100K/yr

[#20] Annual replenishment/reserve allocation for unexpected exposures or legal fallout.

Rapid Response Per Deployment Fund $100K/yr

[#10] Annualized expected per-deployment mission costs (average fund to cover occasional deployments).

International Incident Annualized $50K/yr

[#21] Annualized budget for occasional foreign- jurisdiction liaison and contractors (averaged per year).

Long Term Offearth Monitoring $50K/yr

[#22] Archive storage, analysts and occasional re-evaluations if entity left off-Earth.

Witness Stipends $30K/yr

[#8] Long-term stipends/relocation living payments for witnesses/family (annual ongoing cost if maintained).

Mnestic Aftercare $20K/yr

[#19] Recurring aftercare and follow-up mnestic costs for affected civilians/households (if mnestics used on a small scale).

Specialized Materials Replacement $20K/yr

[#15] Ongoing replacement/testing of specialized containment materials and consumables.

Communication Monitoring And Audits $20K/yr

[#16] Ongoing comms monitoring, encryption audits and RF counter-surveillance.

Placement Monitoring Payments $20K/yr

[#13] Ongoing monitoring/periodic check-ins and payments if placed in an orphanage.

Ethics Oversight $15K/yr

[#23] Periodic ethics board convening, documentation and internal audits.

Supplies And Consumables $8K/yr

[#3, #5] HAM radio electricity/periodic technician visits and audio oversight consumables.

Counseling And Family Updates $6K/yr

[#7] Weekly counseling sessions and weekly welfare updates to Guilia Birchby (lower-end estimate).

Facilities Maintenance $5K/yr

[#4] Ongoing apartment holding costs, property taxes/management (baseline low-end).

Pediatric Care Staffing $0/yr

[#12] Specialized pediatric/security staffing only required in active containment; baseline assumes 0 (not deployed).

On Site Security Staffing $0/yr

[#14] On-site 24/7 security staffing is conditional on active containment and is 0 in baseline posture.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.2M/yr

93.9% probability / year

Normal year with remote monitoring, weekly playback, counseling, legal/cover upkeep and standby readiness but no re-entry or containment events.

no trajectory change no re-entry only remote monitoring operations

🚨 Minor Incident $2.6M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$400K vs baseline

Trajectory perturbation or local incident requiring a single rapid deployment, limited public remediation and witness relocation/mnestic use.

tracked trajectory anomaly localized impact or visible damage one rapid-response deployment

🚨 Major Reentry $4.1M/yr

1.0% probability / year +$1.9M vs baseline

Confirmed re-entry requiring immediate capture/containment, site retrofit, specialized staffing and international coordination.

re-entry confirmed need for pediatric containment cell multi-day deployment and international coordination

🚨 Catastrophic Breach $7.2M/yr

0.1% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline

Re-entry causes public disaster, broad exposure requiring large-scale remediation, diplomatic cover and large contingencies.

widespread public exposure international political fallout large-scale infrastructure damage

👥 Personnel 4 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist / Orbital Analyst	1	Primary analyst for contracted monitoring; salary portion included in staff_wages (~$120k/yr). [maps to #1]
Orbital Dynamics / Modeling Expert	1	On-call re-entry and impact modeller; salary portion included in staff_wages (~$150k/yr). [maps to #2]
Field Agent / Liaison (Agent Belgrave)	1	Part-time liaison allocation (marginal cost estimated ~$10k/yr included in staff_wages); maintains direct comms. [maps to #6]
Administrative / Audio Technician	1	Handles weekly playback automation oversight, logistics and admin tasks (~$60k/yr portion of staff_wages). [maps to #5, #3]

📋 Confidence Notes

Notes are detailed and include ranges; however many costs are conditional (re-entry vs remote monitoring) and contain wide ranges (satellite procurement, containment staffing). Figures are midpoint estimates and include several judgment calls, so confidence is medium.

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