SCP-3646 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-3646
Expected annual
$11.0M
One-time setup
$40.2M
Annual recurring
$10.7M
Personnel
38
Initial capital outlay is dominated by high-containment construction and a dedicated manufacturing facility for S-031106; steady-state annual costs are driven by specialized staff, security/MTF operations, R&D and global monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $40.2M
Facilities $21.7M
[#1, #26, #18, #10] Sealed BSL-3+ insectary construction/retrofit (#1), one redundant containment suite (#26), quarantine ward setup (#18), and construction of high-containment manufacturing facility for S-031106 scale-up (#10).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $11.7M
[#9, #10, #13] Initial biomedical research and lab buildout (#9), R&D + pilot development for S-031106 (#10), initial pheromone R&D (#13).
Contingency Reserve Seed $5.0M
[#23] Initial seed for insurance/contingency/reserve fund as a one-time capitalization.
Equipment $1.8M
[#3, #4, #6, #8, #30, #16, #22, #12, #28, #5] One-time purchases: sterilization/decon equipment (#3), fixed + mobile incinerators (#4), initial PPE suits (#6), security hardware installation (#8), small lab equipment (#30), toxic-gas deployment kit (#16), regional trap grid hardware (#22), webcrawler setup hardware/software (#12), communications/opsec hardware (#28), and automated feeder hardware (#5).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $10.7M/yr
Staff Wages $5.8M/yr
[#7, #14] Annual payroll for containment staff and MTF Nu-15: containment research staff, technicians, security officers, hazmat techs, facility manager, part-time medical/admin; MTF team salaries and standing readiness.
Cover Story And Legal $1.7M/yr
[#11, #27, #28] Ongoing cover stories/PR, legal teams, facilitation fees and public-health liaisons (#11, #27) and operational security/vetting costs (#28).
Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr
[#9, #12, #13, #20, #22, #29] Ongoing biomedical research and experiments (#9), webcrawler/OSINT operations (#12), pheromone production and testing (#13), decomposition/environmental monitoring (#20), trap/station maintenance (#22), and a recurring environmental remediation reserve (#29).
Contingency Replenishment $500K/yr
[#23] Annual replenishment/maintaining of crisis reserve funds (#23).
Supplies And Consumables $276K/yr
[#5, #6, #15, #30] Ongoing sugar-water prep and testing (#5), PPE replacements/consumables (#6), field expendables baseline replenishment (#15), and lab consumables/reagents (#30).
Mtf Deployment Average $250K/yr
[#14] Average recurring non-salary deployment costs for MTF Nu-15 (fuel, airlift, consumables) averaged annually (#14).
Facilities Maintenance $230K/yr
[#2, #8, #26] HVAC/energy and chamber climate control (#2), security system operations (#8), and maintenance for redundant suites (#26).
Amnestic Production $200K/yr
[#19] Manufacture, storage and administration costs for Class-C amnestics in recurring use/cleanup scenarios (#19).
Logistics And Transport $150K/yr
[#21] Standing secure transport contracts and hazardous-material shipping logistics (#21).
Training And Drills $150K/yr
[#24] Regular training programs, drills, certification costs and refresher courses (#24).
Field Incineration Readiness $100K/yr
[#17] Regional readiness for immediate field incineration and trained corps-handling teams (#17).
Incinerator Operation $50K/yr
[#4] Fuel, maintenance and operation costs for fixed and mobile incinerators (#4).
Bioweapon Deployment Consumables $50K/yr
[#10] Recurring consumables and per-deployment costs for S-031106 distribution pilots/operations (#10).
Quarantine Operations $50K/yr
[#18] Ongoing operations costs for quarantine wards and per-patient support (average reserve) (#18).
Waste Treatment Contracts $30K/yr
[#25] Contracts for hazardous ash and contaminated-consumable disposal for one facility (#25).
Toxic Gas Operations $20K/yr
[#16] Average recurring monitoring, environmental testing and isolation costs when gas deployments occur (#16).
Sterilization Validation $10K/yr
[#3] Annual certification, validation cycles and consumables for autoclaves/chemical decon (#3).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $10.7M/yr
82.5% probability / year
Routine year with no major incidents; normal operations, research, monitoring and readiness costs only.
no_outbreaks regular_research_and_surveillance
🚨 Minor Incident $11.2M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized wild detection requiring MTF response, limited incineration, targeted quarantine and small amnestic usage.
localized_outbreak single_mtF_deployment limited_quarantine
🚨 Major Breach $13.2M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Significant multi-site outbreak requiring sustained MTF operations, mass quarantine, large amnestic issuance and environmental remediation.
multi-site_spread public_exposure large_scale_remediation
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $35.7M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Widespread uncontrolled dispersal or deliberate misuse of S-031106 requiring emergency mobilization, international remediation, legal/cover-up expenditure and replenishment of contingency reserves.
facility_loss mass_dissemination international_incident
👥 Personnel 38 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Entomologist 4 [#7, #9] Senior entomologists and research biologists dedicated to studying SCP-3646 and S-031106 R&D.
Lab Technician 4 [#7, #9, #30] Technicians for daily lab operations, assays, sample handling and consumables management.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 24 [#7, #14] Facility security staff (6) plus MTF Nu-15 personnel (approx. 18) for deployments and sustained operations.
Hazmat Technician 2 [#6, #17] Hazmat specialists for PPE maintenance, decon procedures and corpse handling.
Facility Manager / Operations 1 [#7, #1] Manager overseeing containment suite operations and facility commissioning.
Medical Officer 1 [#18, #19] Part-time/full-time medical support for quarantine care, amnestic administration and monitoring.
Administrative Staff 2 [#11, #12] Admin, legal liaison and OSINT triage support for cover-story and reporting operations.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide many line-item ranges and clear operational requirements, but wide ranges for high-cost items (manufacturing facility, contingency reserves, weaponization scale-up) and uncertainty about incident frequency reduce precision.
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