SCP-3653 — SCP-3653 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-3653 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-3653

Expected annual

$499K

One-time setup

$277K

Annual recurring

$467K

Personnel

One-time setup costs are approximately $277,000 driven by training, secure software/DB setup, and an initial contingency fund; annual recurring costs are estimated at $467,000/year, driven primarily by Jan 1 person-to-person correction operations, transport/incineration logistics, counseling, and an annual contingency reserve.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $277K

Personnel Training Initial $100K

[#8] Initial in-person training program for ~50–100 trainers (initial training costs per trainee).

Contingency Initial Fund $100K

[#17] Initial contingency / escalation fund (lower bound of recommended reserve).

Equipment $65K

[#2, #12] One-time secure reporting software & SOP development and secure database setup/encryption/backups.

Facilities $12K

[#5] Purchase and installation of certified safe/vault space, environmental controls, CCTV/alarm integration at Site-19.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $0

[]

Scalable Mass Response Setup $0

[#20] Regional rapid-response setup (not invoked in baseline; zeroed for baseline estimate).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $467K/yr

Staff Wages $100K/yr

[#1, #2, #9] Staff wages and overtime for Jan 1 person-to-person corrections, call-center/on-call coordinators and Jan 1 incident command overtime.

Logistics And Transport $62K/yr

[#1, #3] Transport costs for confiscated calendars and travel-related logistics for localized Jan 1 operations.

Psychological Counseling $60K/yr

[#11] Counseling and medical follow-up for affected personnel (EAP sessions, checkups, monitoring).

Research And Monitoring $50K/yr

[#7] Annual limited laboratory research, forensic analysis, controlled human-subject tests and reporting.

Contingency Fund Reserve $50K/yr

[#17] Annual reserve contribution for unexpected wide distributions, exposures, or behavior changes.

Training Refreshers $30K/yr

[#8] Annual refresher training for person-to-person counseling method and role-play exercises.

Hr Investigations And Legal $30K/yr

[#10] Annual reserve for HR/disciplinary investigations, counsel, hearings and enforcement actions.

Administrative Overhead $20K/yr

[#18] SOP updates, compliance reporting, ethics board fees, security clearances and associated paperwork time.

Cover Story And Legal $15K/yr

[#13] Family liaison, petty cover-story reimbursements, minimal PR mitigation, NDAs and liaison officer costs.

Incineration And Destruction $12K/yr

[#4] Contract incineration/shredding services and hazardous-waste paperwork per-item destruction costs.

Supplies And Consumables $11K/yr

[#3, #14] Evidence bags/tamper seals and printing replicas/consumables for tests and decoys.

Secure Records Maintenance $10K/yr

[#12] Annual hosting, backups, IAM controls and maintenance for encrypted records of who saw SCP-3653.

Communications Security And Audits $10K/yr

[#16] Monitoring and insider controls to prevent digital/written dissemination of the corrective statement.

Facilities Maintenance $3K/yr

[#5, #19] Annual safe/vault monitoring & maintenance and minimal extra energy/HVAC/security costs.

Evidence Storage And Archival $2K/yr

[#15] Temporary storage and cataloging costs for confiscated calendars prior to destruction or archival retention.

Kept Instance Transport $2K/yr

[#6] Annual secure transport (armored courier/escort) for the single kept instance moved to Site-19.

Scalable Mass Response Annual Operating $0/yr

[#20] Annual operating costs for regional rapid-response teams (zero in baseline; invoked only in scale-up scenarios).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $467K/yr

96.5% probability / year

Normal year with routine Jan 1 operations, localized confiscations, training refreshers, and annual reserves; no large-scale exposures or invoked scale-ups.

small-to-moderate number of manifests no public exposure procedures executed as planned

🚨 Large Manifest Year $1.4M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$900K vs baseline

Year in which manifests are very large (hundreds-to-thousands), requiring invocation of regional rapid-response teams, expanded incineration contracts, and one-time scale-up setup.

hundreds-to-thousands of manifests logistics capacity exceeded mass incineration and regional team deployment

🚨 Major Public Exposure $1.5M/yr

0.5% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline

Significant public exposure or widespread visibility requiring emergency operations, legal mitigation, and large-scale containment measures.

public discovery mass media exposure emergency legal and PR response

👥 Personnel 12 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	4	Front-line staff for in-person corrections and secure transports; overtime included in staff_wages [#1].
Research Scientist	2	Run controlled tests, forensics and reporting; included in staff_wages/research budget [#7].
Incident Commander / Coordination	1	Leads Jan 1 global coordination cell and command; overtime included in staff_wages [#9].
Call Center / On-call Coordinator	2	Night-shift reporting staff for Jan 1 hotline/app and log verification; staffing costs included in staff_wages [#2].
Administrative Staff	2	Paperwork, SOP updates, ethics board coordination and scheduling; included in administrative_overhead [#18].
Medical Officer	1	Provides counseling oversight and medical follow-up coordination; costs in psychological_counseling [#11].

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst-provided ranges are detailed, but the single largest uncertainty is the (redacted) annual manifest count; scaling behavior could change costs dramatically, so medium confidence is assigned.

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