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SCP-3654 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3654
Expected annual
$4.8M
One-time setup
$23.5M
Annual recurring
$4.6M
Personnel
26
One-time setup dominated by remote naval-site construction, owned maritime and aviation assets, and specialized restoration equipment (~$23.48M). Recurring costs are primarily staff wages, logistics (helicopter/tow/patrol ops), and research/monitoring (~$4.64M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $23.5M
Facilities $12.3M
[#1, #11] Naval site construction for remote base, pier/drydock/barracks/helipad and certified munitions magazine build.
Equipment $9.0M
[#2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #16, #17, #18, #19, #23, #27] Diesel generators/tanks, machine-shop tooling, engine procurement/fabrication, tug/workboat purchase, patrol boats, helicopter purchase, ROV/sonar, anomalous sensor package, clinic equipment, spill-response kit, comms hardware, surveillance hardware, waste-handling systems, and initial small-arms/kit.
Insurance Reserve Initial $600K
[#22] Initial insurance/liability reserve and financial buffer.
Legal And Permits Initial $550K
[#20] Initial legal, permitting, negotiations, and cover-story establishment costs.
Extraordinary Contingency Reserve $550K
[#29] One-time contingency reserve for extraordinary anomalous events or immediate emergency expenses.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $300K
[#10, #25, #26] Artifact conservation lab and archival storage buildout; archival/digitization hardware and initial conservation projects.
Training And Certification Initial $62K
[#24] Initial certifications (diving, maritime salvage, medical, safety) setup and first-time course fees.
Eod Training And Certification $50K
[#12] Initial EOD training and certification costs for personnel handling munitions.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.6M/yr
Staff Wages $2.6M/yr
[#14] Salaries, benefits, rotations for ~26 core staff (site commander, technicians, security, researchers, medic, admin).
Logistics And Transport $675K/yr
[#5, #6, #7, #28] Helicopter operations and aircraft upkeep, tug/boat maintenance and tow operations, patrol boat fuel/maintenance, and additional monthly-cycle provisioning/patrol tempo costs.
Research And Monitoring $305K/yr
[#8, #9, #10, #21, #25, #26] ROV/sonar maintenance, anomalous sensor calibration & data storage, archival/conservation maintenance, contracted analyses and ongoing translation/conservation research.
On Island Housing And Personnel Logistics $275K/yr
[#15] Food service, housekeeping, rotation transport, onboarding, and personnel logistics to sustain remote staffing.
Cover Story And Legal $175K/yr
[#20] Ongoing legal counsel, permits renewal, local relations, and cover-story PR/compensation.
Facilities Maintenance $125K/yr
[#2, #19] Generator fuel/maintenance and surveillance/hardware upkeep (utilities and site systems).
Eod Staffing And Contracts $125K/yr
[#12] Ongoing EOD contractor or dedicated staff coverage and inventory management for munitions handling.
Contingency Replenishment $125K/yr
[#22] Annual replenishment of insurance/liability reserves and contingency funds.
Supplies And Consumables $76K/yr
[#3, #11, #13, #27] Machine-shop consumables, small-arms ammo & inert ordnance provisioning, periodic food/provisioning runs, and small-arms replacement/consumables.
Training And Certifications Recurring $40K/yr
[#24] Recertification costs for diving, salvage, EOD, medical and safety training.
Medical And Medevac $30K/yr
[#16] Medevac contract standby and basic clinic operating supplies.
Environmental Monitoring $30K/yr
[#17] Environmental monitoring, spill-response drills, and remediation readiness.
Communications And Cybersecurity $30K/yr
[#18] Satellite services, encrypted comms, and cybersecurity maintenance.
Waste Management And Hazmat $30K/yr
[#23] Hazardous waste disposal and hazardous-material handling services.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.6M/yr
78.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with routine provisioning, patrols, maintenance, and scheduled research.
regular_29-day_cycle_provisioning scheduled_maintenance routine_research
🚨 Minor Incident $4.8M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Localized equipment failure or towing event requiring emergency tow, short drydock repairs, and extra research/analysis.
engine_failure unplanned_tow/drydock minor_hull_repair
🚨 Major Repair $6.1M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Significant loss of propulsion or hull damage requiring major restoration, engine replacement or prolonged offsite work.
catastrophic_engine_loss major_hull_reconstruction extended_offsite_restoration
🚨 Political Exposure $5.6M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Local regulatory or political action (environmental fines, permit revocation, forced remediation or PR campaign) increasing legal and operational costs.
permit_violation public_disclosure environmental_incident
👥 Personnel 26 total
Role Count Notes
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#14] Site commander / program manager.
Senior Technician 4 [#14] Senior technicians experienced in restoration and marine engineering.
Technician / Crew 8 [#14] Technicians for workshop, maintenance, and day-to-day boat operations.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 5 [#14, #27] On-site security staff with small-arms and maritime boarding capability.
Diver / Boat Crew 3 [#14, #8] Trained divers and boat crews for recovery, ROV ops, and search.
Research Scientist 2 [#14, #21, #26] Linguist/historian and anomaly scientist for document analysis and anomalous monitoring.
Medical Officer 1 [#14, #16] On-site medic and first responder; liaises with medevac.
Administrative Staff 2 [#14, #15, #20] Logistics, procurement, local liaison, and cover-story administration.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are medium confidence: containment requirements and recurring mission tempo are well described, but wide published ranges (own vs charter assets, local regulatory costs in Japan, and uncertain ordnance requirements) produce material uncertainty.
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