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SCP-3679 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3679
Expected annual
$484K
One-time setup
$290K
Annual recurring
$442K
Personnel
2
One-time setup estimated at $290,000 (driven primarily by optional BSL-2 buildout and equipment purchases). Recurring annual costs are estimated at $442,000/yr driven by allocated staff wages, ongoing online monitoring/cyber-forensics, field operations/amnestic administrations, legal/cover-up, and seller-disruption activities.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $290K
Facilities $150K
[#4] One-time BSL-2 lab buildout (100k–250k) if new space is required; included as a capital facilities cost.
Seller Neutralization One Time $50K
[#25] One-time contingency for a modest takedown/complex operation (local takedown $10k–50k; larger ops more costly) reserved as an initial capital contingency.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $48K
[#5, #6, #17] Initial laboratory analysis campaign and reagent/sample panel (20-sample panel ~$5k–20k), initial instrument runs / access charges (~$10k–50k), and initial forensic shipping/materials analysis (~$1k–10k).
Equipment $27K
[#1, #9, #23] Secure containment locker purchase & installation (~$2k–5k), evidence storage cabinet and tamper-evident equipment (~$1k–5k), optional on-site incinerator purchase (~$10k–50k) aggregated.
Initial Investigation Spike $10K
[#11] One-time investigation spike (paid subpoenas, contractor bursts) for initial attribution work (~$5k–50k) budgeted as an upfront item.
Training And Sop Development $5K
[#20] One-time SOP and training materials development (~$2k–10k).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $442K/yr
Staff Wages $130K/yr
[#3, #10] Allocated personnel costs: Level-3 researcher (partial FTE allocation $40k–80k) and OSINT analyst(s) allocation (~$70k/yr).
Seller Disruption Monitoring $75K/yr
[#25] Ongoing monitoring/disruption budget for PoI-3679 (covert monitoring, informants, disruption operations ~$50k–200k/yr).
Incident Response Reserve $50K/yr
[#19] Annual reserve for rapid-deployment surge operations and emergency amnestic/PR/legal activation (surge reserve ~$50k–250k per incident; baseline holds a recurring reserve).
Cover Story And Legal $35K/yr
[#14, #15] Legal retainer (~$20k–50k/yr), modest per-incident cover-up reimbursements, and baseline takedown/content moderation/legal takedown expenses.
Logistics And Transport $25K/yr
[#12, #23] Field operation travel/lodging/per-diem and hazardous-material transport / evidence shipment costs for routine captures and disposals.
Facilities Maintenance $20K/yr
[#2, #4] Annual BSL-2 marginal overhead if using existing lab (PPE, decon, cabinet access) and locker maintenance/firmware/battery replacement ($500–1k/yr).
Research And Monitoring $20K/yr
[#6, #17, #5] Ongoing instrument access charges (MS, sequencer, microscopy), recurring forensic campaigns, and per-sample analysis costs beyond the initial campaign.
Amnestic And Medical $15K/yr
[#7, #13] Amnestic drug costs, medical monitoring, phlebotomy, clinician time and post-administration observation for captured subjects (per patient ~$500–2k).
Controlled Purchases $13K/yr
[#16] Covert purchase program costs: purchase price + follow-up for controlled buys (baseline 10 buys/yr example aggregated).
Supplies And Consumables $12K/yr
[#5, #8] Ongoing lab consumables/reagents per-sample testing, PPE, and regulated biohazard disposal (PPE $500–2k/yr; per-sample consumables averaged into annual budget).
Cyber Forensics $10K/yr
[#11] Ongoing cyber-forensics/attribution support and modest contractor/subpoena costs for routine investigations (~$5k–50k variable).
Insurance And Overhead $10K/yr
[#22] Institutional liability, insurance premium allocation, and overhead contingency (~$5k–50k/yr variable).
Online Monitoring $8K/yr
[#10] Tooling, servers, VPN/Tor infrastructure, scraping/archiving tools and domain monitoring costs (tooling & servers ~$5k–10k/yr).
Data Storage $5K/yr
[#21] Secure encrypted storage, backups, and disaster recovery for leads, medical records, and research data (~$2k–10k/yr).
Outreach And Liaison $5K/yr
[#24] Coordination and liaison costs with law enforcement / health authorities, reimbursements for joint operations (~$1k–20k/yr).
Training And Sop Refreshers $3K/yr
[#20] Annual refresher trainings, SOP updates, and red-team exercises (~$1k–5k/yr).
Misc Administrative $3K/yr
[#26] General admin, courier fees, small equipment, travel admin, and miscellaneous overhead (~$1k–10k/yr).
Scale Planning $2K/yr
[#18] Ongoing planning and scaling costs for scenario modelling and operational planning tied to customer volume.
Evidence And Chain Of Custody $2K/yr
[#9] Records management, barcode tracking, and storage space costs for evidence (~$500–2k/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $442K/yr
84.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, allocated Level-3 oversight, low discovery rate (~10 customers/yr), and recurring operational costs only.
no major exposures low customer discovery rate existing monitoring remains effective
🚨 Minor Incident $592K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Small inadvertent public exposure or a single cluster requiring surge response and expanded legal/medical action.
localized public exposure single incident requiring surge teams and emergency amnestics
🚨 Medium Activity $642K/yr
10.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Seller becomes more active or detection improves leading to ~100 customer identifications per year, requiring many more captures and amnestic administrations.
increased storefront volume mass customer identifications cross-jurisdiction follow-ups
🚨 Major Breach $1.9M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
High-volume or widely publicized exposure requiring large-scale international investigations, multiple MTF taskings, and major PR/legal/medical response.
widespread public exposure international cross-border incident seller uncooperative or covert international operation
👥 Personnel 2 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist (Level-3) 1 Allocated partial FTE for SCP-3679 oversight and experiment approvals; cost reflected in staff_wages.
OSINT Analyst 1 Responsible for storefront monitoring and initial scraping/alerting; salary allocation included in staff_wages (tooling costs counted separately).
📋 Confidence Notes
Costs are based on itemized analyst estimates and typical institutional rates (good fidelity for equipment, staffing, and per-op costs). Uncertainty remains around PoI detection rates, cross-border operations, and potential large-scale exposures, which can greatly change recurring costs.
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