SCP-385 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-385
Expected annual
$4.1M
One-time setup
$15.2M
Annual recurring
$4.0M
Personnel
23
Upfront capital ranges from modest (reuse of existing polar station fit-out) to very large (dedicated polar module); total one-time capital here aggregates to ~$15.2M driven by facility/module buildout, safety/capture systems, and emergency reserves, while recurring annual costs (~$4.05M/yr) are dominated by staff wages, polar logistics/transport, power/fuel and ongoing research/testing.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $15.2M
Dedicated Polar Module $8.0M
[#2] Alternative capital: dedicated modular build & deployment to polar site (airlift/logistics dependent)
Facilities $1.2M
[#2] Lease & fit-out of polar-qualified containment facility (baseline reuse of existing station; excludes dedicated module)
Safety Capture Systems $1.0M
[#9] Design & build of arrestor/capture systems (tethers, arrester rails, airbags, containment drones) for anti-inertia tests
Incident Response Reserve $1.0M
[#16] One-time contingency reserve for emergency charters, salvage, temporary quarantine crews
Insurance Reserve One Time $1.0M
[#19] Catastrophic self-insurance reserve / indemnity fund (one-time placement if commercial insurance insufficient)
Secondary Containment Cell $1.0M
[#20] Redundant secondary containment cell at a second polar site (one-time capital)
Decommissioning And Site Removal $800K
[#25] Decommissioning, removal and environmental restoration costs (one-time contingency)
Initial Research And Lab Setup $300K
[#8] Instrumentation for experiments: high-speed/low-temperature cameras, DAQ, sensors and redundant telemetry
Legal Pr Contingency $250K
[#17] One-time legal/PR contingency for litigation or major incident response
Permits And Diplomacy $200K
[#3] Environmental impact assessments, permits, diplomatic liaison and cover-story setup (one-time portions)
Power Generation One Time $200K
[#12] Generator/turbine installation and fuel storage infrastructure one-time capital
Redundant Comms One Time $80K
[#11] Satellite/comms hardware, on-site servers and encryption hardware one-time setup
Environmental Control One Time $80K
[#13] HVAC/heating and humidity-control installation and freeze-protection one-time build
Ppe One Time $20K
[#14] Initial cold-weather PPE, emergency shelters, cryo-rated cases procurement
Equipment $9K
[#1] Fireproof archival/storage container replacement/upgrade for artifact-level conservation
Backup Mockup $6K
[#20] Inert duplicate storage harness / non-functional mockup of artifact
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.0M/yr
Staff Wages $2.0M/yr
[#6, #7, #15] Salaries for core scientific staff (Level-4 + supporting researchers/engineers/analyst), on-site security guards and site operations/admin, includes medic salary
Research And Monitoring $615K/yr
[#18, #21, #24] Ongoing experimental R&D and duplication attempts, periodic test-window costs (annual testing campaign), long-term data archiving/reporting
Logistics And Transport $600K/yr
[#4, #5, #10] Secure transport per deployment (airlift/charter), personnel travel/rotations and remote test-range logistics
Facilities Maintenance $340K/yr
[#11, #12, #13] Satellite/comms service & license fees, generator/fuel logistics maintenance, HVAC/utilities and routine site maintenance
Insurance And Indemnity $200K/yr
[#19] Annual insurance premiums, liability coverage or internal premium-equivalent
Cover Story And Legal $105K/yr
[#3, #17] Annual permit reporting/compliance and ongoing legal/PR/cover-story costs
Supplies And Consumables $63K/yr
[#1, #9, #14] Conservator inspections and periodic conservation treatments, replacement/repair consumables for capture systems, PPE replacement
Medical And Medevac $60K/yr
[#15] Medevac standby contract / evacuation hour blocks (medic salary is included in staff_wages)
Training And Simulation $50K/yr
[#23] Specialized training, simulator sessions and safety/drill rehearsals
Decontamination And Waste $20K/yr
[#22] Ongoing decontamination, waste disposal and environmental-compliance costs
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.0M/yr
94.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine testing cadence and no major incidents; all recurring programs run as budgeted.
scheduled_tests routine_maintenance no_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $4.6M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$550K vs baseline
Isolated containment/test incident requiring medevac, emergency transport and limited cleanup/legal response.
single_test_mishap local_contamination single_medevac
🚨 Major Breach $8.8M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$4.8M vs baseline
Major containment breach or catastrophic experiment failure requiring full incident-response reserve, extended salvage, litigation and possible rebuild/secondary containment activation.
runaway_experiment major_breach litigation_and_site_rebuild
👥 Personnel 23 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist (Level-4) 1 [#6] Senior Level-4 authorized researcher overseeing experiments
Researcher / Engineer 3 [#6] Supporting researchers/engineers (aerospace, instrumentation)
Data Analyst 1 [#6] Data analysis and instrumentation monitoring
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#7] On-site armed security: 4guards per shift, 3-shift coverage
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#7] Site operations manager and executive oversight
Logistics Coordinator 1 [#7] Logistics and transport coordination for polar operations
Medical Officer 1 [#15] On-site medic / medical coverage
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#12, #13] Power, HVAC and general site maintenance
Conservator / Artifact Specialist 1 [#1] Periodic conservation treatments and artifact monitoring
Administrative Staff 1 [#7, #17] Administrative and legal/permit support
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on analyst line-item ranges from polar operations and SCP-specific requirements; major uncertainties remain around choice of facility strategy (reuse vs dedicated module), frequency of test deployments, and tail-event probabilities, so confidence is medium.
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