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SCP-3857 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3857
Expected annual
$123K
One-time setup
$10K
Annual recurring
$104K
Personnel
0.13
One-time setup costs are minor (~$9.8k) for archival, access control, and equipment; recurring annual costs center on research, legal retainer, contingency reserve, staffing and hiring churn, totaling about $104k/yr with occasional high-cost tail risks (up to $500k–$2M) per major recovery incident.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $10K
Equipment $6K
[#2, #3, #4, #13] Includes archival preservation materials (acid-free folder, Mylar sleeve, inert backing, framed display), climate/humidity sensor & logging install, badge lock/CCTV hardware and installation, and high-resolution scan/setup hardware/encryption vault prep.
Posters And Printing $1K
[#5] Design ($500), printing (~$700 midpoint for 200 posters), and car stickers ($125) as one-time production/installation costs.
Training Module Development $1K
[#6] Development of supervisor training module (one-time).
Administrative Setup $500
[#1] One-time admin/setup to log object and initial inventory entry.
Amnestic Stock Setup $500
[#7] Secure initial Class-A amnestic stock setup and storage (one-time).
Facilities $0
[]
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
Incident Recovery Operation $0
[#10] Per-incident recovery/cleanup operation cost if used: estimated $500,000–$2,000,000 per incident (not budgeted as a one-time purchase here).
Legal Per Incident $0
[#11] Per-incident legal/PR/payout costs: estimated $50,000–$200,000 per significant incident (not pre-paid here).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $104K/yr
Research And Monitoring $25K/yr
[#12] Annual research/testing budget to study memetic trigger thresholds and deterrence effectiveness (midpoint of $10k–$40k).
Contingency Reserve $20K/yr
[#10] Annualized contingency reserve/insurance-equivalent to cover tail-risk recovery/cleanup operations ($20k/yr set aside toward large per-incident costs).
Hiring Onboarding $18K/yr
[#9] Annual expected budget for replacement hiring, recruiting, background checks, and onboarding (midpoint of stated $5k–$30k budget range used here).
Cover Story And Legal $12K/yr
[#11] Small legal/PR retainer to keep cover story and local options ready (midpoint ~$12.5k/yr).
Staff Wages $12K/yr
[#6, #7, #14] Includes 0.05 FTE psychologist/project PI time (~$8,500/yr), nursing/admin time for amnestic administration (~$675/yr), and occasional security overtime wages for supervised access (~$2,400/yr).
Hr Reassignment $5K/yr
[#8] Expected annual budget for HR processing/reassignment/severance for transferred employees (low-frequency; midpoint assumed).
Administrative Audits $3K/yr
[#17] Periodic memetic compliance audits and staff time for reports (~$1k–$5k midpoint).
Emergency Training Drills $3K/yr
[#19] Occasional tabletop/small drills to rehearse escalation/response (~$1k–$5k midpoint).
Productivity Impact $2K/yr
[#18] Conservative allowance for productivity/morale impact (~1% of small project payroll estimate).
Amnestic Doses $2K/yr
[#7] Consumable/production cost for Class-A amnestic doses (midpoint: 3doses/yr × midpoint per-dose cost $625 = $1,875).
Supplies And Consumables $1K/yr
[#5, #16] Annual replacement/refresh of posters/stickers and routine consumables (gloves, sleeves, labels) (~$500 + $600 midpoint).
Facilities Maintenance $800/yr
[#3, #4, #13] Sensor monitoring/maintenance and low ongoing CCTV/storage maintenance and secure-scan validation (~$100 + $350 + $350 midpoint).
Medical Oversight Reporting $600/yr
[#15] Follow-up medical checks and reporting after dosing (small annual allowance).
Administrative Recordkeeping $200/yr
[#1] Ongoing recordkeeping/audit time related to the locker registration and inventory (~$200/yr).
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
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⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $104K/yr
77.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with routine monitoring, periodic amnestic administrations and planned hiring/churn; no major incidents or international recovery operations.
routine_monitoring expected_amnestic_administrations standard_hiring_churn
🚨 Minor Incident $114K/yr
20.0% probability / year +$10K vs baseline
Single local incident requiring extra HR reassignment, replacement hiring and modest PR/legal effort above baseline.
single_staff_transfer unexpected_amnestic_administration
🚨 Major Recovery Operation $1.5M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.4M vs baseline
Containment failure leading to an international recovery/cleanup (Amazon expedition, airlift, contractors, mortuary) requiring large one-off expenditure.
offsite_travel_to_amazon casualty_recovery_and_cleanup
🚨 Legal Exposure $229K/yr
2.0% probability / year +$125K vs baseline
Significant local legal/PR exposure requiring large payouts, retainers or legal costs without full recovery operation.
public_exposure local_legal_action
👥 Personnel 0.13 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Project PI 0.05 [#6] 0.05 FTE psychologist/project-PI time for training module development and oversight (ongoing behavioral monitoring time accounted in staff wages).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 0.06 [#14] Part-time/occasional overtime coverage for supervised locker access (hours budgeted as overtime wages).
Medical Officer / Nurse 0.01 [#7, #15] Nursing/admin time for amnestic administration and follow-up medical checks (small fractional FTE).
Administrative Staff 0.01 [#1] Small fraction of administrative FTE for recordkeeping and inventory audits.
📋 Confidence Notes
Notes provide detailed line items and ranges but many inputs are ranges and tail risks are highly uncertain; probabilities for rare events are subjective, so confidence is medium.
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