SCP-391 — SCP-391 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-391 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-391

Expected annual

$410K

One-time setup

$212K

Annual recurring

$407K

Personnel

One-time setup costs are moderate (~$212k) driven by aviary/vault construction, equipment (HVAC, security, XRF), and contingency reserves; recurring annual costs (~$407k/yr) are dominated by staff wages (handlers, security, research) plus ongoing assays, insurance, and contingency replenishment.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $212K

Equipment $60K

[#2, #4, #6, #8, #16, #20, #29] Includes HVAC installation ($10,000), LED lighting and timers ($1,250), initial habitat furnishings ($3,750), security hardware/CCTV installation ($7,500), animal handling/transport crates ($3,000), purchase of bench XRF for in-house elemental screening (~$30,000 as lower-cost analytical option), and monitoring/data-logger hardware (~$4,000).

Contingency Reserve One Time $50K

[#30] Initial contingency/emergency reserve recommended for recapture, replacement specimen acquisition, or immediate response.

Facilities $45K

[#1, #22] Aviary structural construction (heavy steel-mesh 5×5×5 m) and on-site secure safe/vault build (moderate-sized secure safe/vault option chosen).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $20K

[#20] Bench and lab setup/validation for in-house assay workflow (sample prep bench, containment for small-scale metallurgical handling, calibration materials) associated with analytical instrumentation purchase.

Legal Setup $20K

[#26] One-time legal/setup costs for permits, initial counsel and cover-story development.

Field Acquisition Historical $15K

[#17] Historical acquisition and initial field operation costs (capture campaign) — treated as sunk/historical one-time cost estimate.

Veterinary Initial Care $3K

[#13] Baseline veterinary exam, quarantine checks, vaccinations and initial anesthesia equipment/consumables.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $407K/yr

Staff Wages $320K/yr

[#10, #11, #12] Salaries+benefits for 1 FTE animal handler, 2 FTE security guards, 1 research scientist and 1 research technician (combined salaries estimated).

Research And Monitoring $22K/yr

[#9, #19, #20, #29] Video storage/monitoring and review (~$1,200/yr), outsourced analytical assays program (~$15,000/yr typical sampling), instrument service/contracts (~$5,000/yr for XRF bench), and monitoring/cloud storage (~$500/yr).

Inventory And Audits $12K/yr

[#25] Inventory control, periodic audits and bookkeeping (contract audit or partial FTE equivalent).

Cover Story And Legal $10K/yr

[#26] Ongoing legal retainer, permit renewals and cover-story/PR maintenance (recurring retainer estimate).

Field Acquisition Contingency $10K/yr

[#17] Annual contingency rotation to fund potential recapture/field operations if escape or additional acquisition required.

Contingency Replenish $10K/yr

[#30] Annual replenishment of contingency/emergency reserve to maintain recommended reserve level.

Veterinary Care $6K/yr

[#14] Routine and emergency veterinary care, medications and avian-specific treatments.

Insurance $6K/yr

[#24] Facility and inventory insurance premiums (facility liability + declared metal coverage estimate).

Facilities Maintenance $3K/yr

[#3, #5, #7] HVAC energy and preventative maintenance (~$1,800/yr), lighting maintenance (~$200/yr), and habitat/vegetation maintenance (~$1,250/yr).

Supplies And Consumables $3K/yr

[#15, #18] Annual feeding/prey procurement (~$2,000/yr baseline) and pellet handling consumables (~$1,000/yr).

Metallurgical Refining $2K/yr

[#21] Fees for melting/refining/assaying produced metal per batch (baseline low-production handling fees).

Staff Vetting And Training $2K/yr

[#28] Background checks amortized for new hires and annual training/certification refreshers.

Offsite Storage $1K/yr

[#23] Leasing third-party secure storage / depository for small amounts of bullion.

Waste Management $500/yr

[#27] Biological waste disposal, decontamination supplies and periodic deep cleaning.

Logistics And Transport $0/yr

[]

Opportunity Cost Exposure $0/yr

[#31] Unquantified contingent liability/exposure risk (regulatory fines, asset seizure, political fallout). Not assigned a numeric estimate due to extreme uncertainty.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $407K/yr

94.5% probability / year

Normal year with routine care, monitoring, assays, and no major incidents or exposures.

routine_operations no_incident

🚨 Minor Incident $447K/yr

5.0% probability / year +$40K vs baseline

Limited incident (escape attempt, small theft, localized contamination) requiring targeted response, short-term overtime and field ops.

escape_attempt localized_theft emergency_recapture

🚨 Major Breach $557K/yr

0.5% probability / year +$150K vs baseline

Significant breach or exposure (theft of produced metal, public exposure, multi-day recapture/legal crisis) requiring large response and reputational/legal costs.

large_theft public_exposure multi-day_recapture

👥 Personnel 5 total

Role	Count	Notes
Animal Handler	1	Daily care, feeding, handling and supervised access.
Security Officer / Guard	2	Site-level security staff for access control and asset protection.
Research Scientist	1	Lead researcher designing protocols and overseeing assays.
Research Technician	1	Sample processing, pellet handling, routine assays and data logging.

📋 Confidence Notes

Notes provide detailed line-item ranges for nearly every cost, enabling mid-confidence estimates; uncertainty remains around choices (e.g., ICP-MS vs XRF, vault scale, insurance scaling with metal inventory) which prevents 'high' confidence.

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