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SCP-3915 Neutralized ~ medium confidence
SCP-3915
Expected annual
$2.3M
One-time setup
$2.7M
Annual recurring
$2.3M
Personnel
8
Estimated initial capital/setup costs are approximately $2,347,000, with recurring operating costs around $2,283,000/year. Main drivers are staff wages and benefits, helicopter/logistics operations, and contingency/cover-story payments.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.7M
Facilities $2.3M
[#1, #2, #3, #26] Outpost construction/refurbishment, site hardening, generator installation and decommissioning/demobilization contingency aggregated as facility and structural work. Estimates use midpoints of provided ranges and include Arctic logistics premiums.
Equipment $252K
[#5, #11, #17, #19, #21, #23] One-time hardware and equipment purchases: satellite VSAT install, small-boat fleet, surveillance hardware, UAS purchase, medical equipment, and classified IT/hardened servers. Values are mid-range picks from notes.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $50K
[#20] Initial archival/research setup, limited assays and documentation costs (one-time portion).
Background Checks And Clearances $30K
[#22] Initial personnel vetting, background checks and polygraphs for 6–10 staff (one-time estimate).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.3M/yr
Staff Wages $800K/yr
[#7] Core staffing salaries for a minimal rotating crew (1 site manager, 2–4 security/field techs, 1 medic, 1–2 scientists). Mid-range payroll with Alaska/remote premiums.
Contingency Program Overhead $520K/yr
[#27] Program overhead, administrative costs and contingency reserve (estimated 25–30% of operations in this posture).
Logistics And Transport $387K/yr
[#4, #9, #10, #12, #13] Fuel for generators/heating/vehicles, monthly helicopter refuse transfers, medevac/retainer and per-call costs, boat/vehicle maintenance and annual waste tipping fees.
Benefits Travel And Rotations $250K/yr
[#8] Benefits, travel, rotation costs and per diems (adds ~25–40% to payroll); includes transport to Anchorage and temporary housing during turnover.
Cover Story And Legal $175K/yr
[#14, #15, #16] Contracts/payments to partner organizations (NOAA/MCA), permits/legal/insurance costs, and PR/community relations to maintain the false cleanup narrative.
Research And Monitoring $63K/yr
[#18, #19, #20, #25] Surveillance operations (drone patrols, data storage/analysis), UAS maintenance, ongoing research/archival maintenance, and environmental sampling.
Communications Bandwidth $36K/yr
[#6] Satellite bandwidth, airtime, SIMs, ground-station fees and redundancy lines (secure VSAT airtime monthly charges).
Supplies And Consumables $35K/yr
[#21, #24] Annual consumables including medical supplies/training consumables and station supplies (food, PPE, office supplies).
Classified It Maintenance $15K/yr
[#23] Annual maintenance, secure backups, encryption/key management and compliance for classified IT systems.
Clearance Reinvestigation $2K/yr
[#22] Periodic reinvestigation/recertification costs for cleared personnel (annual recurring portion).
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.3M/yr
90.5% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with routine monitoring, monthly refuse transfers, scheduled rotations and no major incidents.
routine operations monthly refuse transfers regular monitoring
🚨 Minor Incident $2.4M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Small accident or localized equipment loss requiring extra helicopter sorties, limited repairs, supplemental medical evacuation and reactive PR/legal expenses.
medical evacuation small fuel spill equipment damage
🚨 Site Closure $2.5M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Decision to close or demobilize Outpost-84 within the year, triggering decommissioning, remediation and termination of contracts.
decommissioning decision budget reallocation
🚨 Major Breach $3.8M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Significant containment/operational breach or public exposure requiring extended emergency response, legal damages, major remediation and heightened multi-month operations.
unauthorized access large contamination public exposure
👥 Personnel 8 total
Role Count Notes
Site Manager / Executive Staff 1 [#7] On-site manager responsible for operations and liaison.
Security Officer / MTF Agent / Field Tech 3 [#7] Security and field technicians to maintain 24/7 presence and field tasks.
Medical Officer 1 [#7, #21] On-site medic responsible for trauma response and medical training.
Research Scientist / Archivist 2 [#7, #20] Rotating scientists for interviews, archival work and limited assays.
Administrative / Support 1 [#7, #8] Logistics/administration to handle rotations, travel, and cover-story coordination.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed ranges for nearly every line item; figures use mid-range estimates and reasonable allocations between facility, equipment, and recurring buckets. Remaining uncertainty arises from Arctic logistics variability, helicopter usage frequency, and program-level contingency sizing.
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