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SCP-3953 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-3953
Expected annual
$31.8M
One-time setup
$85.0M
Annual recurring
$30.7M
Personnel
268
Initial capital and buildout (outposts, sensor network, smallsat, equipment, and large contingency reserves) drive one-time costs (~$85M). Ongoing annual operations (staffing for 20 outposts, censorship/cyber operations, research, satellite ops and rapid-response deployments) drive recurring costs (~$30.7M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $85.0M
Equipment $25.2M
[#3, #7, #8, #12, #18, #19, #27] Purchase/deployment of seismic sensors, CCTV/audio hardware, cold-storage systems, smallsat (build+launch), vehicles fleet, armed security equipment, and secure communications hardware.
Facilities $24.4M
[#1, #5, #28] Outpost construction/purchase and conversion of Provisional Site-398 (residential street), plus physical archival/vault buildouts.
Contingency Reserve $20.0M
[#16] Dedicated containment contingency & emergency intervention reserve.
Strategic Partnership Fund $5.0M
[#11] Initial strategic fund for covert funding/grants and securing key partnerships with astronomical institutes.
Government Relations Fund $5.0M
[#17] Initial local government relations & compensation fund for permits, compensations and covert payments to maintain cooperation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.4M
[#9, #13, #22, #23] One-time pipeline/dev for image-inspection task force, HPC/ML infrastructure, initial research equipment, and database/catalog dev work.
Medical Contingency Fund $1.0M
[#21] One-time contingency fund for medical/psychological/family-assistance reserves.
Power Redundancy $1.0M
[#26] One-time purchase/hardening of backup generators/UPS and fuel storage infrastructure.
Employee Relocation Pool $500K
[#29] One-time relocation and expatriate package seed funding for foreign specialists and housing setup.
Pr Staging $200K
[#24] One-time staging costs for implementing/refreshing the local cover story (Sewer Repair) and staged construction.
Staff Recruitment Setup $200K
[#20] One-time setup costs for recruitment/background-vetting infrastructure and initial counter-intel screening setup.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $30.7M/yr
Staff Wages $12.7M/yr
[#2, #6, #9] Recurring fully-burdened personnel costs: 20outposts operational payroll (incl. local staff), Site-398 security/cover staffing, and the digital image-inspection team's salaries (split of item #9).
Research And Monitoring $5.2M/yr
[#4, #12, #13, #14, #22, #23] Seismic network operations & telemetry, smallsat ops, HPC/ML model ops & retraining, global discovery subscriptions/data access, research grants/budgets, and database/catalog hosting/operations.
Cover Story And Legal $4.6M/yr
[#11, #17, #24, #25, #9] Legal retainers, covert payments/grants to observatories, local cover-story maintenance (PR), insurance/taxes/legal overhead, plus a portion of task-force operational overhead (split from #9).
Rapid Response Cyber Unit $3.0M/yr
[#10] Recurring operating budget and discretionary rapid-response fund for censorship/cyber operations, takedowns, and emergency seizures.
Proliferation Mitigation $2.0M/yr
[#30] Annual planning, buyouts, and public-safety measures/reserve for proliferation-mitigation and national-scale secrecy contingencies.
Logistics And Transport $1.3M/yr
[#15, #18] Global rapid field deployments (airlift/tactical teams) and vehicle fleet maintenance, fuel and logistics for Costa Rica operations.
Supplies And Consumables $850K/yr
[#9, #19, #20, #29] Software/tools/licenses for image task force, security equipment replacement and training, ongoing vetting/background screening costs, and recurring relocation/housing allowances.
Facilities Maintenance $630K/yr
[#7, #8, #26, #28] CCTV/storage maintenance, archival cold-storage upkeep, fuel and maintenance for backup power systems, and vault/lab maintenance.
Medical Programs $200K/yr
[#21] Ongoing medical, psychological, and family-assistance program costs for affected staff/civilians.
Secure Communications Ops $200K/yr
[#27] Recurring costs for encrypted communications, satellite links and associated cryptographic operations.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $30.7M/yr
93.8% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major public exposure or large-scale containment interventions.
routine_operations sensor_monitoring minor_internal_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $35.7M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized leak or a single-publication requiring targeted takedowns, extra deployments and limited buyouts.
localized_publication small_breach expedited_observatory_release
🚨 Major Breach $80.7M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Widespread public exposure requiring national-level interventions, large buyouts, and major emergency operations.
widespread_media_coverage multiple_public_releases compromise_of_containment_infrastructure
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $230.7M/yr
0.2% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Mass public exposure / national crisis requiring sustained emergency funding, buyouts, and major assets deployment (potentially internationally).
national_exposure loss_of_control_over_multiple_instances major_international_leak
👥 Personnel 268 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 98 [#1, #6, #18] Guards and armed response personnel for 20 outposts, Site-398 security staff, and mobile tactical teams using the vehicles fleet.
Research Scientist 69 [#2, #4, #22] Seismologists, physicists and specialist scientists assigned to outposts and research programs (seismic network ops and research grants).
Image Analyst / Forensic Tech 65 [#2, #9, #23] Centralized digital image-inspection task force (30 FTE) plus image analysts located at outposts and catalog/database curators.
Administrative Staff / Site Manager 36 [#1, #5, #6] Site managers, local liaisons, and administrative personnel supporting the outposts and Provisional Site-398.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes are detailed and enumerate line-item estimates, but major uncertainties remain (frequency of triggers, scale of public exposure, and contingency drawdowns). Many figures are rough-order and contingency-driven, so medium confidence is appropriate.
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