SCP-3989 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-3989
Expected annual
$22.3M
One-time setup
$27.9M
Annual recurring
$21.6M
Personnel
55
First-year capital + establishment estimated at $27,850,000 (one-time) with steady-state annual operations ~ $21,570,000 driven primarily by security staffing, BSL-4 operations, recurring incineration/consumables, and covert cover/legal expenditures; contingency and escalation reserves can raise first-year outlays substantially. [#30]
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $27.9M
Equipment $15.0M
[#8, #9, #10, #11, #12, #14, #15, #16] Heavy weaponry/armory procurement, mobile BSL-4 unit, fixed/mobile incinerator(s), incendiary/flamethrower equipment, vehicle fleet (armored/APC/utility), hardened communications hardware, sensor package purchase (LiDAR/GPR/Kant-equivalents), drone fleet and ground stations.
Facilities $7.3M
[#1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #13, #19, #21] Land purchase/cover establishment, extra-land contingency, perimeter concrete walls, active-zone concrete barrier, inner chain-link fencing/checkpoints, power infrastructure installation, secure medical wing/HCP-03 construction, initial environmental assessment.
Contingency Reserve $4.0M
[#24] Emergency reserve for urgent escalation, rapid fortification, extraction, or political payments (one-time allocation held available).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.2M
[#25] Initial instrumentation, modeling, and lab buildout for long-term theoretical/experimental program (non-BSL-4 mobile unit instrumentation).
Remediation Event Fund $300K
[#21] One-time fund allocated for episodic soil/remediation events and initial ecological mitigation beyond baseline monitoring.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $21.6M/yr
Staff Wages $7.5M/yr
[#6, #17] On-site security detachment (platoon-strength MTF) payroll and research/specialist staff payroll (HMCL supervisor, Level 3+ researchers, BSL-4 techs not double-counted here).
Research And Monitoring $2.5M/yr
[#25] Long-term research program funding for theoretical physics, traversal R&D, and sustained experiments/analysis.
Bsl4 Operating Costs $2.5M/yr
[#9] Operating costs for on-site BSL-4 capability (staffing, consumables, validation, decon, waste handling).
Cover Story And Legal $1.4M/yr
[#1, #22, #26] Ongoing cover operations (olive-orchard payroll/minor agricultural ops), local liaison/bribes/permits, PR/false narratives and legal support.
Medical Care And Medevac $1.3M/yr
[#19] Medevac contract, trauma care costs, ongoing care/custody for any HCP-03 detainees (permanent custody cost estimates included).
Illicit Procurement And Overhead $875K/yr
[#28] Black-budget accounting overhead, procurement risk premium, shell-company maintenance and counter-intelligence/audit costs.
Power Fuel And Maintenance $650K/yr
[#13] Fuel for diesel generators, UPS maintenance, generator servicing and fuel farm logistics.
Logistics And Transport $500K/yr
[#23] Secure convoys, shipping, guarded transport, special containers and Plainsight logistics.
Heavy Weaponry Maintenance $500K/yr
[#8] Storage compliance, maintenance, periodic live-fire training and ammunition resupply for anti-tank/heavy systems.
Vehicle Maintenance And Fuel $500K/yr
[#12] Fleet maintenance, spare parts, fuel for armored trucks/APCs and utility vehicles in high-wear theater.
Sample Processing $500K/yr
[#18] BSL-4 sequencing, microscopy and specialized assays for samples prior to mandated incineration.
Incendiary Fuel Consumables $450K/yr
[#11] Fuel and disposable incendiary consumables for biweekly active-zone clearing operations (26 ops/yr estimate).
Expanded Operational Costs $400K/yr
[#7] Incremental costs for biweekly insertion operations (MTF Ψ-7 extra overtime/overtime teams, disposable equipment, medevac readiness).
Supplies And Consumables $375K/yr
[#20] PPE, decontamination supplies, BSL-4 consumables, suit replacement, filter disposal, laundering.
Training And Drills $350K/yr
[#27] Regular hazardous-environment drills, BSL-4 retraining, anti-armor/urban-barricade exercises and recruitment costs.
Sensor Maintenance And Analysis $300K/yr
[#15] Calibration, repairs, replacement sensors, data analysis for specialized anomaly detection suite.
Drone Operations And Replacement $250K/yr
[#16] Drone ops, spare airframes and specialized retrieval/replacement due to losses during missions.
Incinerator Operating $200K/yr
[#10] Fuel, emissions control, filters, ash handling and environmental compliance for high-throughput incineration.
Hazardous Waste Disposal $175K/yr
[#29] Secure storage and disposal/shipment of residual ash, filters and contaminated PPE beyond on-site incineration.
Environmental Monitoring And Remediation $150K/yr
[#21] Ongoing airborne/soil monitoring, periodic mitigation and small-scale remedial actions.
Communications Service $125K/yr
[#14] Satellite service fees, encrypted comms bandwidth, repeater/relay leases and anti-jamming services.
Facilities Maintenance $20K/yr
[#5] Maintenance for inner chain-link fencing, checkpoints and minor site upkeep.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $21.6M/yr
78.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; recurring costs only.
routine_biweekly_incineration normal_staff_rotations standard_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $23.1M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Localized containment failure or small release requiring extra security, targeted remediation, and limited replacements.
small_containment_breach localized_environmental_remediation
🚨 Major Breach $29.6M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Significant breach with personnel casualties, loss of assets, emergency fortification and large-scale remediation/repairs.
large_internal_release extended_combat_or_security_engagement replacement_of_BSL-4_or_major_equipment
🚨 Political Exposure $26.6M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Discovery or political pressure requiring large clandestine payouts, rapid evacuation or site relocation costs.
local_authority_discovery militia_or_state_involvement forced_eviction_or_payoff
👥 Personnel 55 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 40 [#6] Platoon-strength detachment permanently stationed on-site (rotations included in recurring security payroll).
Research Scientist 15 [#17] HMCL supervisor, Level 3+ researchers and technicians (BSL-4-trained researchers/analysts accounted in research payroll).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are order-of-magnitude due to operating in an unstable foreign theatre (Syria), multiple selectable design choices (mobile vs permanent BSL-4, armament level), and uncertain breach probabilities; historical breach activity increases uncertainty.
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