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SCP-414 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-414
Expected annual
$28.4M
One-time setup
$20.6M
Annual recurring
$28.1M
Personnel
50
One-time capital outlays ~ $20.6M driven by facility conversions, research lab build-out and a contingency reserve; recurring annual costs ~ $28.07M/yr driven by long-term patient care, front-company operations, research, field teams, and legal/cover-story expenses.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $20.6M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $5.5M
[#8] Dedicated biomedical research lab build-out and initial equipment (midpoint estimate of $3M–$8M range).
Contingency Reserve $5.0M
[#20] Recommended rapid escalation / emergency fund reserve (chosen midpoint).
Facilities $2.8M
[#1, #9] Conversion of 20-bed observation wing (~$1.5M) and BSL upgrades / structural containment work (~$1.25M).
Clinical Trial Startup Reserve $1.5M
[#22] One-time reserve for initiating trials / translational program (Phase I startup midpoint).
Field Team Setup $1.2M
[#4] Ten-team national rapid-response setup (vehicles & field gear) at ~$120k/team.
Front Company Setup $1.0M
[#6] Five regional psycho-social front offices setup (~$200k/office).
Data Integration Software $1.0M
[#10] One-time integration & development for records trawling and ML triage (midpoint $500k–$1.5M).
Therapy Animal Procurement $650K
[#7] Procurement/training of ~50 therapy animals (midpoint of $300k–$1M).
Secure Transport Vehicles $570K
[#5] Purchase of discreet secure vans (3–6 vehicles, midpoint estimate).
Cyber Tooling $300K
[#16] One-time tooling for covert cyber operations and counter-forensics ($200k–$500k midpoint).
Archival System $300K
[#24] Initial secure archival/case-management system (~$150k–$500k midpoint).
Legal Setup $200K
[#12] One-time legal/front-company incorporation and retainers setup ($100k–$300k).
Amnestic Storage And Inventory System $190K
[#13] Secure pharmaceutical vaults + inventory software (combined midpoint of provided ranges).
Cover Story Asset Creation $150K
[#19] Forensic media & cover-story asset bank creation (~$150k).
Surveillance Installation $125K
[#17] Facility CCTV and fixed surveillance install (~$50k–$200k midpoint).
Training Development $120K
[#15] Development of training curriculum and simulations (~$120k one-time).
Ppe And Initial Medical Supplies $30K
[#18] Initial stock of PPE and clinical consumables (~$10k–$50k).
Equipment $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $28.1M/yr
Long Term Patient Care $6.0M/yr
[#2] Ongoing supported housing/care for ~100 final-stage patients at ~$40k–$80k/yr (midpoint $6M).
Staff Wages $4.5M/yr
[#14] Core staffing of ~50 professionals (clinicians, therapists, social workers, trainers, security) estimated at $3M–$6M/yr; midpoint used.
Front Company Operations $4.0M/yr
[#6] Annual payroll and operations for five regional front offices (~$3M–$5M; midpoint).
Research And Monitoring $3.0M/yr
[#8] Annual research budget for cure-oriented R&D (midpoint of $1.5M–$5M/yr).
Logistics And Transport $2.6M/yr
[#4, #5] Annual operations for 10 field teams (~$250k/team => $2.5M) plus vehicle maintenance/fuel (~$100k).
Cover Story And Legal $2.1M/yr
[#11, #12, #19, #21] Media monitoring/PR ($600k), legal retainers/settlements (~$1.35M), cover-story refresh and oversight (~$200k total).
Facilities Maintenance $1.2M/yr
[#1] Operating costs for 20-bed observation wing (staffing/utilities/supplies) estimated at ~$1.2M/yr.
Cyber Ops And Infrastructure $1.0M/yr
[#16] Covert cyber team wages, infrastructure and takedown contracts (~$600k–$1.5M midpoint).
Data Monitoring Licenses And Staff $800K/yr
[#10] Ongoing licensing, analysts and maintenance for records trawling and ML triage (~$400k–$1.2M midpoint).
Amnestic Procurement And Administration $650K/yr
[#3] Class-B amnestic doses and administration (~$150–$500/dose; 2,000 doses/yr midpoint).
Clinical Trials And Translational Budget $500K/yr
[#22] Ongoing pipeline and trial-prep budget (preclinical and regulatory work; separate one-time trial spend may be required if initiated).
Public Health Partnerships $500K/yr
[#23] Grants and reimbursements to NGO/partner providers to maintain cover and cooperation (~$200k–$1M midpoint).
Public Safety Education $500K/yr
[#25] Outreach and benign mitigation campaigns (~$200k–$1M midpoint).
Archive Hosting And Staff $150K/yr
[#24] Annual hosting, secure backups and staff for long-term records (~$80k–$300k midpoint).
Therapy Animal Upkeep $110K/yr
[#7] Annual upkeep for ~50 therapy animals (~$1.5k–$3k/yr each; midpoint).
Pathology Services And Waste Disposal $100K/yr
[#9] Per-sample pathology and specialized waste handling (baseline modest volume estimate).
Training And Refresher $100K/yr
[#15] Annual refresher training and simulations (~$50k–$150k midpoint).
Communications And Surveillance Maintenance $100K/yr
[#17] Annual comms and surveillance maintenance (~$50k–$200k midpoint).
Supplies And Consumables $60K/yr
[#18] Routine PPE, decontamination and clinical consumables resupply (~$20k–$100k; midpoint modest).
Amnestic Maintenance And Destruction $50K/yr
[#13] Annual maintenance, compliance, and destruction of expired amnestics (~$20k–$80k midpoint).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $28.1M/yr
89.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine containment, research, front-company and care operations proceed as budgeted.
no_large_outbreaks no_major_leaks steady_patient_flow
🚨 Minor Incident $28.6M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized cluster or media leak requiring extra deployments, overtime, emergency amnestic administration and limited settlements.
localized_cluster small_media_exposure multiple simultaneous recoveries
🚨 Major Outbreak $33.1M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Widespread spike in SCP-414 incidents requiring emergency housing, airlift/logistics, large settlements and expanded field operations.
regional_outbreak large_cluster mass_media_coverage
🚨 Research Scaleup $38.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Discovery of a strong cure candidate necessitates rapid scale-up of clinical trials, manufacturing and regulatory expenditures.
promising_preclinical_results decision_to_initiate_trials manufacturing_scaleup
👥 Personnel 50 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 8 [#8, #14] Principal investigators, postdocs and lab techs supporting cure-oriented R&D; included in core staffing estimate.
Licensed Therapist / Clinical Psychologist 10 [#14, #6] Provide tri-weekly therapy and clinical care across front-company operations.
Social Worker / Case Manager 10 [#6, #14] Intake, case management, and liaison work for long-term patients and front companies.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#4, #14] Field response and facility security for safe retrieval and observation.
Animal Trainer 3 [#7, #14] Training and oversight of therapy animals used in treatment programs.
Administrative Staff 5 [#6, #24] Operations, scheduling, records management and front-company administration.
Field Response / Paramedic 4 [#4, #5] Rapid-response medics for retrieval, amnestic administration and short-term observation transfers.
IT / Cybersecurity Analyst 2 [#10, #16] Support for data-trawling systems, redaction tools and covert cyber takedowns.
Medical Officer 2 [#1, #14] Clinical oversight for observation wards and amnestic administration protocols.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide ranges and several concrete anchors (bed conversion, team setup, research ranges) enabling midpoint estimates; however incidence rate, scale choices (number of long-term patients, international scope), and unpredictable outbreak/settlement costs introduce substantial uncertainty.
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