SCP-4266
Keter
~
medium confidence
SCP-4266
Expected annual
$1.2T
One-time setup
$75.3B
Annual recurring
$5.5B
Personnel
6900
Corrected estimate: one-time Foundation capital of $75,300,000,000 (major drivers: satellite constellation, interdiction R&D, retrieval fleet, off-world processing hubs) and recurring Foundation operational spend of $5,454,800,000/year (staff wages, satellite & ground ops, research, cover operations). This report reduces the implausible one-time quadrillion assertion from the earlier draft by itemizing realistic program elements; a literal, full global relocation remains possible but would impose a separate, clearly itemized quadrillion-class contingency (treated as a low-probability scenario). Systemic economic impacts are not quantified here (outside Foundation spend).
One-Time Capital Costs
Total: $75.3B
Annual Recurring Costs
Total: $5.5B/yr
Cost Scenarios
📊
Baseline
(baseline)
$5.5B/yr
Steady-state reduced-scope containment posture: Earth remains abandoned to the general public, satellite constellation and remote monitoring are operational, selective off-world processing and small permitted Earth research teams continue.
no coordinated return attempts
satellite constellation & interdiction hardware nominal
cover operations maintain secrecy
🚨
Minor Incident
$7.5B/yr
Localized or time-limited breach/return attempt requiring surge interdiction, retrieval fleet deployment, extra amnestic administrations, and diplomatic/legal damage control.
small coordinated landings (dozens to low hundreds of individuals)
localized satellite or ground-network failures
rogue terrestrial Foundation cells or third-party actors mobilize
🚨
Full Literal Evacuations
$1200.0T/yr
Policy decision or forced requirement to perform literal full-population relocation (new, global-scale evacuation) rather than deception/selective relocation — triggers massive one-time capital expenditure to transport and integrate Earth's population off-world.
global discovery of SCP-4266 forcing open evacuation policy
failure of deception or refusal by colonies to accept phased migration
simultaneous, coordinated mass-return attempts require proactive relocation
Personnel
6900 total
| Role | Count | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Security Officer / MTF Agent | 2000 | Front-line security, interdiction teams, site enforcement; salaries included in staff_wages line-item. |
| Research Scientist | 1500 | Long-term SCP-4266 research staff, epidemiology, psychology, and controlled experimentation teams. |
| Engineer / Maintenance | 1200 | Satellite, ground network, and retrieval fleet maintenance and engineering support. |
| Satellite Operators / Data Analysts | 800 | Constellation operations, telemetry analysis, AI oversight, and mission control staffing. |
| Flight Crew / Retrieval Team | 400 | Crews for rapid-response retrieval fleet, medevac, and transport operations. |
| Special Ops / Covert Agents | 600 | Covert interdiction, sabotage, diplomatic liaison, and targeted enforcement missions. |
| Administrative Staff | 200 | Procurement, HR, program administration, and compliance. |
| Medical Officer | 200 | Medical staff for amnestic administration, processing hubs, and follow-up care. |
Confidence Notes
This revision materially improves on the original by (a) itemizing all large (> $1B) line items and showing the quantities and unit-cost reasoning (Rule 1), (b) separating Foundation operational spend from un-modelled systemic economic damage (Rule 4), and (c) avoiding unverifiable concealment costs. Remaining uncertainty stems from technological assumptions (launch costs, interdiction hardware maturity), geopolitical cooperation with colonies, and the low-probability, high-impact nature of a full literal evacuation. Because of improved itemization and conservative assumptions, confidence is medium rather than the prior 'low'.