SCP-4291 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-4291
Expected annual
$5.7M
One-time setup
$5.7M
Annual recurring
$5.5M
Personnel
16
Initial capital for vessels, ROVs, sensors and research setup dominates one-time costs (~$5.66M); annual operations including vessel ops, fuel, research, forensic processing and contingency reserves drive recurring costs (~$5.545M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.7M
Equipment $4.4M
[#2, #3, #4, #7, #11, #12, #15, #28] Includes sensor/monitoring array setup, ROV/AUV purchase, vessel purchase (baseline purchase option), diving equipment initial kit, initial recovery consumables/tools, boom/capture net purchase, initial secure evidence/refrigerated storage setup, and initial secure communications hardware.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.2M
[#22, #23, #24] Oceanographic/coral research initial lab setup, materials science project setup, and containment R&D initial project funding.
Facilities $60K
[#1] Permanent navigation hazard markers, lighted buoys, NOTAM/chart updates; one-time installation of exclusion markers.
Hyperbaric Purchase $0
[#8] Purchase option for hyperbaric/recompression chamber; baseline assumes seasonal lease (recurring). Purchase range $200k–$400k not included in baseline capital.
Bsl3 Upgrade $0
[#25] Conditional BSL-3 upgrade (one-time $1.5M–$4M) not included in baseline (baseline uses contract BSL-3 lab services instead).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $5.5M/yr
Logistics And Transport $2.0M/yr
[#4, #5, #12, #8, #9, #16, #21, #26, #20] Vessel upkeep and operations, heavy-lift/crane barge rentals per event, boom/net deployment costs, hyperbaric seasonal lease, temporary mortuary/refrigerated storage rental, final disposal costs, fuel and day-to-day vessel/generator running costs, shoreline cleanup contingency fund, and fishermen/industry compensation.
Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr
[#22, #14, #24, #25, #13, #15] Ongoing oceanographic/coral biology program operations, advanced forensic/DNA testing, containment R&D trials, contract BSL-3 lab fees (baseline), morgue/autopsy processing throughput and secure evidence operations.
Contingency Reserve $800K/yr
[#30] Contingency & escalation reserve (recommended 20–40% of operational budget) held for unexpected large expulsions, international incidents, or emergency remediation.
Staff Wages $750K/yr
[#6] Seasonal MTF deployment personnel costs (salaries, hazard pay, travel, accommodation, insurance) for the dedicated dive/containment team.
Cover Story And Legal $525K/yr
[#18, #19, #27, #29] Local authority coordination and permitting, public relations and media control, insurance/liability reserves and legal risk fund, and community relations/mitigation programs.
Facilities Maintenance $165K/yr
[#2, #3, #7, #28] Annual maintenance and support for sensor array, ROV/AUV maintenance, diving equipment maintenance, and secure communications upkeep.
Supplies And Consumables $95K/yr
[#10, #11, #17] Body containment PPE and consumables, replacement recovery consumables/tools, and hazardous waste disposal volumes (PPE, decon, sharps).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $5.5M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal operational year: seasonal expulsions managed with planned vessels, sensors, MTF deployments, routine forensic throughput and contingency reserve untouched.
seasonal expulsions (expected) routine containment and forensic processing
🚨 Minor Incident $6.1M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$600K vs baseline
One-year spike in retrieval complexity requiring extra heavy-lift/rental days, additional boom deployments, elevated PR/legal response, and modest extra disposal/forensics capacity.
entangled large bodies/debris requiring multiple heavy-lift days localized public discovery requiring PR/compensation
🚨 Major Breach $9.5M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$4.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or public exposure leading to emergency purchases/upgrades (e.g., BSL-3 upgrade or large-scale facility purchases), international legal action, large salvage operations and accelerated R&D.
public exposure / major shoreline discovery forensic detection of hazardous pathogen or requirement for BSL-3 upgrade
👥 Personnel 16 total
Role Count Notes
MTF Diver / Diver Team 8 [#6] Core deployed divers for containment, retrieval, and in-water operations (part of seasonal MTF team).
MTF Boat Crew / Deckhands 4 [#6] Vessel crew for dive support and retrieval operations (part of seasonal deployments).
Medical Officer / Medic 2 [#6] On-deployment medics and hyperbaric support liaisons.
Team Leader / MTF Commander 1 [#6] Operational lead for deployments and liaison with site command.
Administrative / Logistics Coordinator 1 [#6] Deployment scheduling, travel, permitting and admin support.
📋 Confidence Notes
Mid-level confidence: SCP description and analyst notes provide clear operational drivers and ranges, but many line items are option-dependent (charter vs purchase, lease vs buy, conditional BSL-3) and per-event needs (heavy-lift, cleanup) vary widely; estimates use midpoints and a medium program baseline.
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