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SCP-4386 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4386
Expected annual
$9.3M
One-time setup
$9.4M
Annual recurring
$9.2M
Personnel
87
Estimated first-year one-time capital of approximately $9.41M for site acquisition, shaft remediation, compute and security hardware; recurring annual operating costs of approximately $9.20M driven primarily by personnel (security, monitoring, incident response), CyTF/analysis, and capital refresh/cover operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $9.4M
Facilities $4.7M
[#1, #2, #4, #9] Site purchase/lease and physical construction: land acquisition, shaft remediation/stabilization, perimeter construction and holding-facility buildout.
Equipment $2.4M
[#10, #11, #12, #14, #15, #16, #17, #19, #20, #25] Surveillance hardware, drone hardware, camera/storage, CyTF tooling, compute servers, generators/UPS, automated sensors, secure comms, vehicle purchases, and physical security hardware.
Contingency Reserve $1.5M
[#28] Multi-year contingency / escalation reserve to fund large unexpected events (relocation, mass amnestics, structural failures).
Life Support Setup $400K
[#3] Underground life-support and environmental-control setup (HVAC, dehumidification, radon mitigation, pumps, lighting).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $350K
[#7, #8] Secure med-bay / licensing and initial amnestic R&D / validation; laboratory/secure pharmaceutical storage buildout and startup research costs.
Training Dev $40K
[#22] One-time course and exercise development for containment, amnestic administration, and cover-story training.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $9.2M/yr
Staff Wages $5.3M/yr
[#5, #6, #7, #11, #12, #13, #17, #26] Salaries and benefits: entrance guards + supervisors, undercover operatives, medical staff, drone pilots/operators (ops portion), 24/7 monitoring techs, psych/clinical staff, on-site engineers, and rapid-reaction incident team.
Research And Monitoring $1.0M/yr
[#14, #15, #18, #27] CyTF staffing & ops (simulation policing), ongoing compute/log analysis support, data analysts/daily cross-referencing, and red-team/internal audit exercises.
Capital Refresh $600K/yr
[#29] Annualized capital refresh & depreciation budget for replacement of servers, cameras, batteries, vehicles, and generators on multi-year cycles.
Administrative Overhead $600K/yr
[#30] Site management, HR, procurement specialists, janitorial/maintenance crews, catering/onsite services, and surface-building utilities.
Covert Procurement Overhead $400K/yr
[#24] Overhead (10–30%) for covert procurement using cutouts/shell companies to avoid traceability; applied as a recurring budget line.
Facilities Maintenance $351K/yr
[#3, #4, #9, #10, #15, #16, #19, #25] Ongoing maintenance and utilities: life-support energy/maintenance components, perimeter upkeep, holding-facility maintenance, surveillance & camera maintenance, compute power/cooling maintenance, generator fuel/maintenance, secure communications bandwidth/support, and physical-security maintenance.
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
[#23] Maintenance of Cover Story #601-A infrastructure, local influence operations, occasional payoffs/compensation to locals, and legal counsel/liaison costs.
Supplies And Consumables $285K/yr
[#8, #21, #22] Amnestic consumables and replenishment, evidence/waste disposal (secure incineration & hazardous handling), and recurring training/refreshers/simulation exercise costs.
Logistics And Transport $195K/yr
[#11, #20] Drone operations/repairs and vehicle fleet operations, fuel, licensing, and covert liveries/insurance.
Life Support Operations $125K/yr
[#3] Ongoing energy and maintenance for underground life‑support systems (air exchange, pumps, dehumidification).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $9.2M/yr
90.5% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; ongoing containment, monitoring, and covert operations proceed as planned.
no breaches regular staffing levels routine maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $9.4M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Small localized incident (e.g., brief power glitch, single-person breach/investigation) requiring targeted repairs, localized amnestic operations and limited legal/PR activity.
minor breach localized equipment failure single-person exposure
🚨 Major Breach $11.7M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Significant containment breach or large exposure event requiring mass amnestic operations, broad repairs, extended tactical deployments and elevated legal/PR response.
multiple-person disconnection major simulation manipulation public exposure
🚨 Structural Failure $14.2M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Catastrophic structural failure of shaft/cavern or major long-duration infrastructure loss requiring large-scale remediation, possible relocation and extended contingency operations.
shaft collapse major flooding/fire long-term generator failure
👥 Personnel 87 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#5] Entrance security staffing: four guards on-site at all times across 3 shifts (with relief/overhead).
Security Supervisor / Dispatcher 3 [#5] Supervisors and dispatcher for entrance and site coordination.
Local Undercover Operative 9 [#6] Embedded operatives in town for cover, surveillance, and social-engineering tasks (rotating assignments).
Monitoring Technician 18 [#12] 24/7 observation staff rotation for SCP-4386-02 through 05 (multiple shifts / redundancy).
Drone Pilot / Operator 4 [#11] Operators and maintainers for long-endurance aerial monitoring fleet.
Medical Officer / Medic 3 [#7] On-site medics and on-call doctor authorized for Class C amnestics and emergency care.
Psychiatrist / Psychologist 4 [#13] Clinical staff for monitoring and treating dissociative/suicidal tendencies in SCP-4386-02–05.
CyTF / Cybersecurity Specialist 6 [#14] Cyber task force for policing the hosted simulation and maintaining tooling.
Engineer / Maintenance 3 [#17] On-site engineers for 2-hour checks, power monitoring and mechanical systems.
Data Analyst / Research Technician 3 [#18] Analysts for daily cross-referencing of power fluctuations, simulation logs and incident reports.
Incident Response Team / Tactical Operators 12 [#26] Rapid-reaction tactical team for breaches/exposure events (separate from entrance guards).
Administrative Staff / Facility Management 10 [#30] Site manager, HR, procurement, janitorial/maintenance supervisors, catering and administrative support.
📋 Confidence Notes
Costs are derived from analyst ranges and reasonable mid-point / conservative selections; many line items have wide ranges (shaft complexity, compute scale, covert overhead) so aggregate estimates carry moderate uncertainty.
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