SCP-4391 — Periapsis | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-4391 Sunrays, ~ medium confidence

Periapsis

Expected annual

$29.9M

One-time setup

$154.5M

Annual recurring

$27.8M

Personnel

Estimated one-time capital/setup ~154,500,000 USD and recurring operations ~27,750,000 USD/year; main drivers are platform/submersible acquisition, year-round vessel operations, and secrecy/contingency reserves. [#24]

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $154.5M

Facilities $90.2M

[#1, #8, #20, #24] Dedicated mothership/platform purchase/refit (~$85M), shore-side support facility/refit (~$5M), and onboard accommodations fit-out (~$200k).

Equipment $45.9M

[#4, #5, #6, #7, #9, #15, #16] Deep-submersible and ROV fleet initial purchase (~$32.5M), high-end sensor package (~$7.5M), data/compute hardware (~$2.75M), comms hardware (~$400k), secure IT setup (~$650k), initial spares stock (~$2M), archival hardware/setup (~$125k).

Decommissioning And Disposal $12.5M

[#23] End-of-life removal/disposal and remediation reserve for platform and shore facilities.

Emergency Response Equipment $2.8M

[#14] One-time rescue/subcontract set-up and emergency equipment contracts for evacuation capability.

Medical Long Term Compensation Reserve $1.0M

[#12] Long-term disability/compensation reserve related to potential latent neurological/perceptual effects.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $850K

[#12, #19] Medical/neurotesting equipment access and specialized lab fit-out/cryostorage (~$250k + ~$600k).

Initial Cover Setup $600K

[#10] One-time legal/shell-institute/PR setup to establish cover organizations.

Secrecy Denial Reserve $500K

[#11] Initial contingency fund for secrecy/denial operations and leak mitigation.

Environmental Studies $175K

[#17] Initial environmental impact studies and baseline surveys.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $27.8M/yr

Vessel Operations $8.0M/yr

[#2] Ship crew wages, fuel, routine maintenance, port/berthing, and dynamic-positioning costs for year-round station-keeping.

Contingency Reserve $4.0M/yr

[#22] Liquid contingency for urgent hardware, replacement assets, litigation, or covert expenditures (recommended 10–25% of annual ops).

Staff Wages $3.0M/yr

[#3] Salaries for on-site scientific & support personnel (researchers, analysts, medics, ROV pilots, logistics).

Secrecy And Denial Operations $3.0M/yr

[#11] Patrol charters, liaison payments, intercept/re-routing costs, and covert response budgets.

Deep Submersible Maintenance $1.2M/yr

[#4] Spares, overhauls, pressure-housing servicing, and scheduled maintenance for submersibles/ROVs.

Insurance And Liability $1.2M/yr

[#18] Hull, liability, P&I insurance and classification society fees for vessel and operations.

Cover Story And Legal $1.1M/yr

[#10] Ongoing cover operations, legal retainers, false publications, and PR to maintain plausible deniability.

Research And Monitoring $1.0M/yr

[#21] Scientific R&D allowance for modeling, cognitive studies, and related subcontracted research.

Logistics And Transport $650K/yr

[#13] Personnel rotation, travel, lodging, and logistical movement costs.

Spares Replenishment $600K/yr

[#15] Ongoing replenishment of deep-sea spares inventory (sensors, thrusters, umbilicals).

Sensor Maintenance $500K/yr

[#5] Calibration, repairs, and maintenance for deep-hardened sensor packages.

Communications Leases $500K/yr

[#7] High-bandwidth satcom and relay bandwidth leases and managed comms services.

Emergency Response $500K/yr

[#14] Standby contracts (medevac, rescue submersible), training, and readiness costs.

Data Storage Maintenance $425K/yr

[#6] Cloud egress, tape maintenance, CRC verification, and archive growth.

Secure Data And Infosec $400K/yr

[#9] Ongoing infosec audits, key management, accreditation maintenance, and secure destruction protocols.

Medical And Psych $400K/yr

[#12] Ongoing medical screening, neurocognitive monitoring, counseling, and in-theater medic support.

Facilities Maintenance $300K/yr

[#8] Utilities, security, and routine maintenance for shore-side support facility and non-vessel infrastructure.

Archival Curation $300K/yr

[#16] Long-term archival curation, restricted-access legal handling, and record management.

Personnel Morale $300K/yr

[#20] Accommodations operations, recreation, secure family comms, and morale programs to limit turnover.

Supplies And Consumables $125K/yr

[#19] Laboratory consumables and sample processing upkeep.

Environmental Monitoring $100K/yr

[#17] Ongoing environmental compliance monitoring and mitigation actions.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $27.8M/yr

87.0% probability / year

Normal year with no major incidents; steady operations and planned maintenance only.

routine_operations scheduled_maintenance

🚨 Minor Incident $30.8M/yr

10.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline

Loss or major damage to one ROV/subsystem, requiring emergency replacement/repair and investigation.

ROV_loss sensor_failure localized_hull_damage

🚨 Major Breach $87.8M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$60.0M vs baseline

Catastrophic event (vessel loss, large public exposure, or major litigation) requiring asset replacement and large contingency spending.

vessel_loss public_exposure major_accident

👥 Personnel 75 total

Role	Count	Notes
Ship Crew / Vessel Crew	50	[#2] Includes deckhands, engineers, dynamic-positioning operators and core vessel staff (40–60 typical).
Research Scientist	10	[#3, #21] Senior/junior scientists responsible for data analysis, modeling, and cognitive research.
ROV Pilot / Technical Specialist	6	[#3, #4] ROV operators and technical specialists for submersible operations and instrument maintenance.
Medical Officer	2	[#12] Onboard medic and psychological support specialist for screening and acute care.
Administrative Staff	3	[#10] Logistics, scheduling, and cover-administration personnel for the shore-side and ship-based operations.
Security Officer / MTF Agent	4	[#11] On-site security and OPSEC liaisons for rapid-response and secrecy enforcement.

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst notes provide detailed ranges for most line items, so cost banding is reasonable; uncertainty remains around strategic choices (purchase vs lease), low-probability catastrophic events, and anomalous behavior that could change operational posture.

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