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SCP-4408 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4408
Expected annual
$3.6M
One-time setup
$4.9M
Annual recurring
$2.9M
Personnel
11
Initial capital outlays are dominated by contingency reserves, an operations base, airspace monitoring hardware, and equipment/vehicle purchases (~$4.92M one-time). Annual operations are driven by staffed 24/7 monitoring, enforcement/SAR contracts, logistics for insertions, and legal/cover operations — baseline recurring costs ≈ $2.92M/yr.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.9M
Contingency Reserve $2.0M
[#23] Large emergency contingency reserve for unexpected anomalies or extrinsic exits; analyst range $1M–$10M; $2M allocated as accessible reserve.
Insurance Seed $1.0M
[#16] Initial insurance / casualty reserve seed recommended minimum $1,000,000 (analyst range $500k–$5M).
Equipment $945K
[#1, #5, #12, #13, #15, #18] Airspace monitoring hardware (#1) $500,000; enforcement boats/vehicles (#5) $150,000; initial explorer kit (#12) $40,000; specialized scientific kit (#13) $200,000; evidence lockers & SOP (#15) $25,000; comms hardware (#18) $30,000.
Facilities $300K
[#6] Operations base build/fit‑out (secure operations/building, power/commisioning) estimated at $150k–$600k; chosen midpoint.
Legal And Lobbying Seed $300K
[#8] Up‑front legal/lobbying campaign seed for multi‑year effort estimated in analyst notes at $150k–$500k.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $150K
[#19] Mapping/data-processing secure IT infrastructure, GIS licenses, processing workstations, backups and classification systems estimated $150k one‑time.
Public Relations Initial $125K
[#7] MTF Delta‑11 initial information operations push (PR firm, ad buys, outreach) $75k–$250k; mid estimate used.
Community One Time $100K
[#20] One‑time community goodwill / facility improvements to Chatham Islands $50k–$200k.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.9M/yr
Staff Wages $1.1M/yr
[#2, #17] 24/7 monitoring staff: 6operators (three shifts) at ~$85k fully burdened ≈ $510k; supervisory/liaison(s) ≈ $150k; research staff/technicians (3 researchers + 1 tech) ≈ $460k.
Logistics And Transport $830K/yr
[#4, #5, #10, #11] Flight reroute compensation/reserve $150k/yr; enforcement/SAR standby contracts and patrols $500k/yr; exploration insertion logistics for baseline (2 missions) $120k/yr; per‑mission medevac standby $60k/yr.
Cover Story And Legal $375K/yr
[#3, #7, #8, #9, #20, #24] Civil coordination/NOTAM administration $40k; PR maintenance $50k; legal retainer $60k; covert cover‑up / records suppression $100k; community compensation $75k; annual audits/oversight $50k.
Equipment Replacement And Spares $150K/yr
[#22] Replacement sets, spares and higher attrition for insertion equipment and aircraft parts estimated $50k–$400k/yr; mid estimate used.
Research And Monitoring $110K/yr
[#13, #19] Annual lab analysis and sample processing $50k/yr; mapping/data IT maintenance and licenses $60k/yr.
Insurance Replenishment $100K/yr
[#16] Annual replenishment to maintain casualty/incident reserves; variable, seed is one‑time; $100k/yr assumed for baseline.
Facilities Maintenance $70K/yr
[#6, #15] Operations base lease/utilities/repairs $60k/yr; secure storage/evidence operation $10k/yr.
Supplies And Consumables $60K/yr
[#12, #13, #14] Per‑mission consumables (food/fuel/supplies) and expendables estimated for baseline tempo (~2 missions/yr): consumables $20k, expendables $20k, decontamination/quarantine $20k.
Training And Safety Exercises $50K/yr
[#21] Regular joint exercises with NZ CAA, local SAR, MTF and island authorities $25k–$150k/yr.
Airspace Monitoring Maintenance $30K/yr
[#1] Maintenance, bandwidth and communications for ADS‑B/radar feeds $10k–$50k/yr; mid estimate $30k.
Communications Bandwidth $25K/yr
[#18] Satellite airtime, VSAT bandwidth and airtime for missions and base comms estimated $10k–$60k/yr.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.9M/yr
58.0% probability / year
Minimal posture year with limited (≈2) in‑field missions, maintained operations base, contracted enforcement/SAR standby, and routine monitoring/cover activities.
limited_missions steady_enforcement_contracts routine_monitoring_and_PR
🚨 Monthly Explorations $4.5M/yr
25.0% probability / year +$1.6M vs baseline
Active posture with monthly manned insertions (12 missions/yr), driving much higher logistics, SAR standby, equipment attrition, and lab analysis.
monthly_manned_insertions high_insertion_tempo increased_equipment_attrition
🚨 Minor Incident $3.5M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$600K vs baseline
A small civilian incident or unplanned aircraft penetration requiring expanded SAR, legal response, PR, and compensation, but no large‑scale exposure.
civilian_incident unplanned_aircraft_entry localized_media_coverage
🚨 Catastrophic Containment $10.9M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Low‑probability, high‑impact event: discovery of an extrinsic exit or major public exposure requiring national asset mobilization, large settlements, and emergency containment.
extrinsic_exit_discovered major_public_exposure national_asset_mobilization
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Air Traffic Liaison / Monitoring Operator 6 [#2] Three shifts × 2 operators per shift to provide 24/7 monitoring; fully burdened staff costs included in staff_wages.
Monitoring Supervisor / Liaison 1 [#2] Supervisory / liaison role to coordinate with civil ATC and international operators; included in staff_wages supervisory allocation.
Research Scientist 3 [#17] Long‑term research staff (geologists, glaciologists, mission planners) included in research salary line.
Technician / Lab Technician 1 [#17] Technical support for mapping, sample handling, instrument maintenance; included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are built from analyst ranges and representative midpoints; SCP notes specify many variable per‑mission and contingent costs (wide ranges). Items like contingency reserves, choice of ADS‑B vs primary radar, and mission tempo introduce uncertainty, so medium confidence is appropriate.
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