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SCP-4418 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4418
Expected annual
$56K
One-time setup
$271K
Annual recurring
$53K
Personnel
1
One-time setup and contingency dominate costs (property purchase ~$105k and an incident reserve ~$125k); recurring costs are modest (~$52.9k/year) driven by part-time oversight, monitoring/communications, and seasonal security around Oct 30.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $271K
Facilities $131K
[#1, #2, #20] Purchase of property (~$105,000 midpoint of $60k–$150k), title/closing fees (~$4,750), and eventual demolition/remediation estimate (~$21,500).
Incident Reserve $125K
[#19] One-time contingency/reserve for anomalous escalation or emergency response (recommended $50k–$200k; midpoint used).
Equipment $8K
[#3, #4, #5, #6, #18] Padlock/boarding/shutter and installation (~$1,650), perimeter signage/gate installation (~$1,750), remote monitoring hardware (~$3,000), solar kit (~$1,050), and local NAS (~$1,000).
Legal Setup $4K
[#17] Initial outreach/legal setup and cover story establishment (~$1k–$6k; midpoint used).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $2K
[#15] Initial research/documentation kit (high-quality cameras, audio, PPE, storage media) estimated at midpoint ~$2,500.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $53K/yr
Staff Wages $22K/yr
[#10] Part-time site custodian/field tech (0.2–0.3 FTE equivalent; salary + benefits ~$15k–30k; midpoint used).
Lease Payment $8K/yr
[#1] Lease alternative to purchase (~$3,000–12,000/yr; included as alternative recurring cost).
Vandalism Contingency $6K/yr
[#14] Emergency repair contingency for vandalism and damage (~$2,000–10,000/yr; midpoint used).
Logistics And Transport $4K/yr
[#11] Vehicle mileage, fuel, maintenance and depreciation for site visits (~$1,500–6,000/yr; midpoint used).
Research And Monitoring $3K/yr
[#7, #8] Alarm/monitoring subscription (~$750/yr) and annual controlled observation/test operation (~$2,500/yr).
Contract Security $3K/yr
[#9] Temporary/contract security for critical window around Oct 30 (2 guards, 48–72 hours; ~$1,200–4,000/yr; midpoint used).
Facilities Maintenance $2K/yr
[#4, #13] Perimeter/signage replacement/repair (~$200/yr) and routine maintenance/groundskeeping (~$1,750/yr).
Property Taxes And Utilities $2K/yr
[#12] Property taxes (~$300–2,000/yr midpoint) and minimal utilities if hooked up (~$200–1,200/yr midpoint).
Cover Story And Legal $1K/yr
[#17] Ongoing liaison/cover story payments and local counsel (~$500–2,000/yr; midpoint used).
Data Plan $750/yr
[#6] Cellular/satellite data plan for remote monitoring (~$300–1,200/yr; midpoint used).
Medical Standby $650/yr
[#16] EMT/medical standby for annual tests (~$300–1,000 per event; midpoint used).
Supplies And Consumables $500/yr
[#15] Consumables for documentation and PPE (~$200–800/yr; midpoint used).
Secure Data Storage $350/yr
[#18] Off-site secure storage for footage/logs (~$100–600/yr; midpoint used).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $53K/yr
85.5% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; routine inspections, annual test, monitoring subscriptions, part-time oversight and seasonal security as budgeted.
routine_operations annual_test
🚨 Minor Incident $58K/yr
12.0% probability / year +$5K vs baseline
Localized vandalism or equipment damage requiring emergency repairs and limited replacement of sensors/cameras.
vandalism equipment_damage
🚨 Major Public Exposure $128K/yr
2.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
Unauthorized public observation or significant media attention requiring legal response, PR, temporary increased staffing and containment measures.
public_exposure legal_inquiry media_attention
🚨 Anomalous Escalation Full Containment $178K/yr
0.5% probability / year +$125K vs baseline
Unexpected change in anomalous behavior or containment breach requiring full emergency response, extended staffing, and possible relocation.
behavior_change containment_escalation
👥 Personnel 1 total
Role Count Notes
Site Custodian / Field Tech 1 Part-time (0.2–0.3 FTE equivalent) responsible for quarterly inspections, alarm response, basic maintenance and coordinating the annual test; included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on explicit analyst ranges for each line item, but local market variability (property prices, contractor rates), optional lease vs purchase decisions, and uncertainty in incident probabilities reduce confidence from high to medium.
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