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SCP-4449 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4449
Expected annual
$1.8M
One-time setup
$2.1M
Annual recurring
$1.7M
Personnel
10
Initial setup and one-time recovery/containment builds plus a large contingency/reserve drive up first-year costs (~$2.12M one-time); ongoing annual costs are driven by staffing, community mitigation programs, and research/monitoring (~$1.733M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.1M
Contingency Reserve $1.0M
[#24] Contingency / catastrophic response fund reserve for escape, public exposure, litigation, or major incident remediation.
Facilities $200K
[#1] Secure containment cell construction (low-threat humanoid cell, observation room, reinforced flooring, anti-tamper locks, viewing/communication systems).
Cover Story Initial $200K
[#14] Initial cover story / PR & amnestic operations (initial suppression, paid narratives, amnestic deployment).
Equipment $193K
[#2, #3, #4, #10, #21] HVAC install ($40k), fire detection & suppression install ($50k), surveillance & sensors initial ($75k), initial PPE ($3k), backup power/UPS install ($25k).
Recovery And Transport $120K
[#13] Initial recovery & transport from Higashishirakawa (field team deployment, containment crate, air/land transport, escorts).
Community Mitigation $100K
[#15] One-time seed funding/program startup to replace community services (training, equipment, initial stipends).
Memetic Research Contingency $100K
[#23] One-time memetic/thaumaturgical research contingency (specialist hiring, ritual materials, small lab space).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $80K
[#19] Experimental research initial setup (force testing rigs, high-speed imaging, noninvasive sensors).
Artifact Replacement $40K
[#20] Acquisition of spare armor components / high-quality replicas and insurance for irreplaceable items.
Artifact Conservation $30K
[#8] Conservator work / initial artifact conservation and mounts for armor/clothing.
Historical Research Acquisition $25K
[#18] Purchase/conservation of photographs, woodblock prints, hiring historians for archival acquisition.
Sparring Infrastructure $20K
[#11] Matted sparring area and protective equipment initial purchase.
Digital Archival $15K
[#22] Secure archival storage hardware and initial digital preservation setup (servers, encryption, cold storage).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.7M/yr
Staff Wages $830K/yr
[#5, #7] Security staffing (6 FTE guards) and on-site research & care staff (1 senior researcher, 1 junior researcher, 1 clinical psychologist, 1 linguist/cultural specialist).
Community Programs $250K/yr
[#15] Ongoing community mitigation & replacement services for Higashishirakawa (programs, stipends, equipment ~$250k/yr).
Research And Monitoring $242K/yr
[#4, #16, #18, #19, #22, #23] Surveillance/storage maintenance ($5k/yr), epidemiological/sociological investigation (~$133k/yr for 3 years), ongoing historical research ($10k/yr), experimental research operations ($30k/yr), archival IT maintenance ($4k/yr), memetic research recurring budget ($60k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $210K/yr
[#6, #26] Rapid response / tactical backup readiness (regional shared mobile response ~$180k/yr), personnel travel & rotation (~$30k/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $110K/yr
[#14, #17] Ongoing cover story monitoring ($50k/yr) and legal/diplomatic covert operating costs (~$60k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $35K/yr
[#2, #3, #21, #25] HVAC energy/maintenance ($6k/yr), fire suppression maintenance ($2k/yr), backup power fuel/maintenance ($3k/yr), facility operating overhead/utilities/insurance ($24k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $26K/yr
[#8, #9, #10, #27] Ongoing conservation supplies ($5k/yr), straw/cotton repair materials & technician labor ($10k/yr materials + labor accounted separately in line item but included here for recurring), PPE replacement ($1k/yr), miscellaneous cultural/outreach gifts ($10k/yr).
Sparring And Medical $15K/yr
[#11] Authorized sparring operations recurring costs (staffing, medical standby, coaching ~$15k/yr).
Medical Services $15K/yr
[#12] On-call medical support & occupational health screenings and emergency care (~$15k/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.7M/yr
90.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, no major incidents; all recurring programs and research proceed as planned.
routine maintenance scheduled research community program operations
🚨 Minor Incident $1.9M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Localized incident such as small fire, armor damage during sparring, or limited medical emergency requiring repairs, PR response, and overtime.
small containment-area fire armor damage requiring conservation work injury during authorized sparring
🚨 Major Breach $2.9M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.2M vs baseline
Significant containment breach or public exposure event requiring full contingency activation, recovery operations, large-scale amnestic deployment, legal/diplomatic remediation, and community emergency aid.
escape/public video evidence major fire or structural damage political exposure demanding reparations
👥 Personnel 10 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#5] Onsite guards: 3shifts, 2 guards/shift (6 FTEs).
Research Scientist 2 [#7, #19] Senior anomalous researcher + junior researcher (research, experiments, anomaly testing).
Clinical Psychologist 1 [#7] Clinical psychologist for weekly interviews and psychological care.
Linguist / Cultural Specialist 1 [#7] Edo-Japanese linguist / cultural specialist for translation and context.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item estimates for almost all components (security, research staff, community programs), lending moderate confidence; uncertainty remains around the anomalous properties, memetic/thaumaturgical research outcomes, and true probability of social/political incidents, so costs for rare high-impact events are less certain.
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