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SCP-4610 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4610
Expected annual
$868K
One-time setup
$710K
Annual recurring
$857K
Personnel
5
Initial one-time setup and investigative/acquisition work dominate first-year spending (~$710k), while ongoing costs are driven by staff salaries, monitoring (drone/weather/IDS), and investigative/legal operations (~$857k/year). Contingency reserves and possible escalation (additional copies or incidents) are the primary risk drivers for higher first-year and recurring budgets.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $710K
Covert Acquisition Initial Ops $175K
[#18] Initial covert/HUMINT/legal ops package for POI handling (investigators, travel, PR/cover setup, legal fees).
Contingency Reserve $125K
[#22] Seed contingency / incident response reserve (recommended held on account as an initial one-time reserve).
Investigative Push $125K
[#17] Initial investigative push to locate additional copies / POI 'dado' (marketplace buys, sting ops, initial intelligence effort).
Long Term Research Fund Initial $112K
[#24] Initial discretionary research/mitigation fund for higher-cost experiments and advanced instrumentation.
Equipment $112K
[#3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #12, #13, #15, #16, #19] Archival kit and appliance, legacy read/write/imaging station, reverse-engineering hardware, three test machines, UPS units, weather station hardware, drones, IDS/spectrum hardware, and legacy spares stock.
Facilities $50K
[#1, #8] Dedicated container modifications and installation of an RF-shielded test chamber / Faraday enclosure (includes minor site modifications and signage).
Sop Development $10K
[#20] Development of SOPs, initial training curriculum, and tabletop/drill preparation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $857K/yr
Staff Wages $590K/yr
[#9, #10, #11] Salaries/benefits for 1 FT IT technician (~$105k) + reverse-engineering team (senior + juniors, ~$325k) + 1 atmospheric/cloud scientist (~$160k).
Cover Story And Legal $80K/yr
[#18, #21] Ongoing covert/ HUMINT/legal activity budget and PR/cover-story maintenance for public-facing issues.
Contingency Replenish $50K/yr
[#22] Annual replenishment allotment to maintain the contingency reserve or respond to incidents as funds are utilized.
Research And Monitoring $46K/yr
[#12, #15, #16, #24] Forecasting service subscriptions and meteorological monitoring, secure data handling/storage staff & maintenance, network/spectrum monitoring analysis, and ongoing modest research project funding.
Logistics And Transport $40K/yr
[#13, #23] Drone operations (ops, pilots, maintenance) and secure transportation/courier costs for equipment or disk transfers.
Per Test Operational Costs $21K/yr
[#9, #14] Per-test labor and consumables (assumes an operational cadence ~12 tests/year; includes IT pre-test inspections billed per-test and test staffing/consumables).
Investigative Monitoring $18K/yr
[#17] Ongoing marketplace/POI monitoring and occasional buys to acquire additional copies or leads.
Supplies And Consumables $5K/yr
[#3, #19, #25] Archival consumables/desiccants, legacy spares replenishment, and miscellaneous consumables/admin overhead.
Facilities Maintenance $4K/yr
[#2, #7, #8] Container/tamper sensor maintenance and certification, UPS battery maintenance/replacement, Faraday/test-chamber inspection and recertification.
Training And Drills $4K/yr
[#20] Annual refresher training, SOP re-certification, and tabletop drills.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $857K/yr
92.0% probability / year
Normal year with scheduled tests, routine monitoring, and no major incidents or new copies discovered.
no incidents occasional scheduled tests ongoing monitoring and admin
🚨 Minor Incident $907K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$50K vs baseline
Small containment/test incident (equipment fault, local sensor failure, brief contamination/cleanup) requiring limited incident response and equipment repair/replacement.
equipment failure small-scale paper/cleanup event localized power/UPS failure
🚨 Major Breach $1.2M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Larger incident akin to Addendum 4610-BR (widespread paper fall, public exposure, large cleanup and forensics) requiring significant response, equipment replacement, extended investigation, and PR/legal mitigation.
storm-related cascade extended power loss during test public exposure requiring remediation
🚨 Additional Copies Discovered $1.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$250K vs baseline
Discovery of additional copies in public circulation or POI activity escalation, requiring expanded acquisition, staffing, persistent covert operations, and larger research effort.
multiple copies found dado POI activity increases need to scale acquisition and research
👥 Personnel 5 total
Role Count Notes
IT Technician 1 [#9] One full-time technician responsible for disk inspections, maintenance, and pre-test checks.
Research Scientist / Reverse Engineer 3 [#10] Team of 2–3 reverse-engineers (1 senior + 1–2 juniors/contractors) conducting analysis and emulator/wrapper development.
Atmospheric Scientist 1 [#11] One specialist to study cloud-selection behavior and advise testing protocols.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are derived from analyst ranges in the notes; many line items are given as ranges or contingent on test cadence and intelligence outcomes, so totals use midpoints and conservative assumptions. Uncertainty remains about testing frequency, scope of investigative operations, and reserve usage.
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