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SCP-4640 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-4640
Expected annual
$4.7M
One-time setup
$2.0M
Annual recurring
$4.4M
Personnel
10
Initial setup requires modest facility/equipment outlays (~$2.04M one-time) while recurring annual costs are dominated by personnel, contingency reserves, and community/OPSEC operations (~$4.355M/yr). Major cost drivers are embedded and monitoring staff, the annual contingency reserve, and ongoing R&D/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.0M
Rnd Long Term One Time $1.0M
[#26] One-time strategic R&D/contingency fund for anomalous countermeasure development (program-scale budget chosen within analyst range).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $350K
[#15, #16] Forensic/materials research initial lab work ($150k) and outfitting a small local safe-spot for pediatric-friendly testing ($200k).
Legal Reserve One Time $250K
[#24] One-time legal reserve set aside in case of guardianship/court actions.
Equipment $200K
[#5, #6, #8] Secure surveillance equipment ($50k), secure communications/server setup hardware ($30k), vehicles purchase (3 vehicles, $120k).
Facilities $120K
[#4] Covert residence modifications and safe room reinforcement; construction/installation costs.
Medical Initial Stock $50K
[#10] Initial medical/pharmacological stockpile (pediatric meds, trauma kits, amnestic supplies).
Cover Identity Setup $30K
[#14] One-time cover identity fabrication and legal setup costs for false identities/shells.
Training Initial $20K
[#17] Initial specialized training & certification for agents (pediatric care, memetic safety, de-escalation).
Power Backup $12K
[#7] Backup generator/UPS purchase and installation.
Apparel Prototyping $5K
[#18] Prototype production of duplicate hoodies/pins.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.4M/yr
Contingency Reserve $2.0M/yr
[#19] Incident response contingency reserve for property damage, displaced civilians, large-scale remediation (kept available/insurable).
Staff Wages $1.1M/yr
[#1, #2, #11, #22] Embedded field agents (2 × $150k fully-loaded = $300k), local monitoring/rapid-response team (6 × $120k = $720k), psychiatric/pediatric care ($80k), data analysis & reporting (1–2 FTE equivalent, $40k).
Research And Monitoring $400K/yr
[#15, #16, #26] Ongoing investigative support/provenance research ($100k/yr), safe-spot maintenance/standby ($50k/yr), follow-on R&D program funding ($250k/yr).
Witness Management $300K/yr
[#20] Budget for witness amnestic ops, safehouses, follow-up healthcare and field teams (budgeted $300k/yr baseline).
Cover Story And Legal $165K/yr
[#14, #21, #24] Identity/legal retainers and updates ($15k/yr), PR/legal baseline & case management ($100k/yr), long-term legal reserve maintenance ($50k/yr).
Community Relations $80K/yr
[#13] Cultural liaison, local community management, small grants and event participation to maintain cover authenticity.
Housing Rental $66K/yr
[#3] Long-term rental of single-family residence in Maui plus utilities and routine maintenance (~$60k/yr rent + $6k utilities).
It Security $60K/yr
[#23] OPSEC, intrusion detection, social media monitoring, rapid takedown and forensics.
Logistics And Transport $45K/yr
[#8, #9] Vehicle maintenance/fuel/insurance ($15k/yr) and air/sea/aircraft emergency transport retainer ($30k/yr).
Education And Integration $40K/yr
[#12] Private school/tutoring, extracurriculars and supplies to maintain child's normal life.
Supplies And Consumables $33K/yr
[#10, #18, #25] Medical replenishment ($20k/yr), recurring replacement of duplicate apparel/props ($1k/yr), miscellaneous living & consumables ($12k/yr).
Communications Hosting $12K/yr
[#6] Encrypted comms hosting, remote replicated backups and SOC monitoring.
Training Certification $6K/yr
[#17] Annual refresher training costs for pediatric handling, memetic safety, cultural competency.
Surveillance Maintenance $5K/yr
[#5] Annual maintenance, replacement, and anti-tamper upkeep for covert sensors.
Power Maintenance $3K/yr
[#7] Fuel contracts, periodic generator/UPS testing and maintenance.
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.4M/yr
73.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with regular operations, training, maintenance, and reserves but no major breaches or extraordinary incidents.
no major manifestations routine monitoring & upkeep
🚨 Minor Incident $4.6M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Localized SCP-4640-3 manifestation causing limited property damage or a small witness cluster requiring targeted amnestics and repairs.
small manifestation localized property damage field amnestic ops
🚨 Major Breach $9.4M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Large multi-site SCP-4640-3 manifestations with significant structural damage, civilian casualties, and mass amnesticization and remediation efforts.
widespread manifestations broken masquerade mass witness events
🚨 Political Exposure $5.4M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Legal/political challenge or NGO exposure forcing expensive litigation, extended settlements, and aggressive cover remediation.
press leak or NGO inquiry local government/legal action
👥 Personnel 10 total
Role Count Notes
Field Agent (embedded) 2 [#1] Two embedded covert agents posing as guardians (fully loaded).
Security Officer / MTF Agent (local monitoring team) 6 [#2] On-island rapid-response/monitoring team with rotating shifts.
Medical Officer (pediatric/psychiatric) 1 [#11] Pediatric/psychological care provider (home visits, emergency triage).
Data Analyst / Case Manager 1 [#22] Weekly reporting, case file maintenance, incident logs (1–2 FTE equivalent budgeted; counted as 1 here).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item estimates enabling a structured budget, but several high-cost items (R&D, contingency reserves, breach costs) are inherently uncertain due to SCP anomalous behavior; accordingly confidence is medium.
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