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SCP-4641 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-4641
Expected annual
$15.0M
One-time setup
$7.0M
Annual recurring
$14.6M
Personnel
45
Initial capital is moderate (~$7.0M) driven by secure facilities, vehicles, IT and a capital contingency; annual operations are substantial (~$14.6M/yr) driven primarily by specialist personnel, deployable rapid-response teams and per-instance field mitigation and contingency funds.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $7.0M
Capital Reserve $5.0M
[#24] Contingency / catastrophic-failure reserve recommended ($5,000,000 one-time capital fund).
Equipment $1.1M
[#8, #12, #20] Field equipment and vehicles procurement ($1,000,000), secure IT/servers one-time setup ($50,000), forensics/evidence kits ($40,000).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K
[#13] Research program startup, lab/study initial costs ($500,000).
Facilities $365K
[#1, #3, #16] Hardened locker ($75,000), playroom buildout ($40,000), and smaller secondary facility setup ($250,000).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $14.6M/yr
Staff Wages $5.9M/yr
[#4, #5, #6, #7, #16] Core player/analyst team ($2,000,000/yr), backup/rotational players ($670,000/yr), on-site security ($250,000/yr), 3 deployable rapid-response teams ($2,880,000/yr), staffing for secondary facility ($80,000/yr).
Logistics And Transport $3.0M/yr
[#9, #8, #22] Per-instance mitigation operations budget (~13 instances @ $200k = $2.6M/yr), field equipment maintenance/replacement ($300,000/yr), travel for players/researchers ($130,000/yr).
Compensation And Relief Fund $2.0M/yr
[#18] Compensation / emergency relief reserve for unintended casualties or exposed civilians ($2,000,000/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $1.8M/yr
[#10, #17, #19] Legal/diplomatic/covert liaison costs (~$1.3M/yr), communications blackout / PR budget ($200,000/yr), insurance/liability/legal retainer ($250,000/yr).
Variable Incident Allowance $1.0M/yr
[#25] Discretionary fund for incident spikes and overruns ($1,000,000/yr).
Research And Monitoring $455K/yr
[#11, #13, #23] Intelligence/OSINT and data subscriptions ($120,000/yr), ongoing research program costs ($300,000/yr), audits/compliance ($35,000/yr).
Psychological Support $200K/yr
[#15] Psychological screening, counseling contracts and hazard pay premiums ($200,000/yr).
Training And Drills $150K/yr
[#14] Regular drills, SOP development and rehearsal costs ($150,000/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $80K/yr
[#20, #21] Forensics replenishment ($20,000/yr) and general consumables for sessions/deployments ($60,000/yr).
It Hosting And Maintenance $15K/yr
[#12] Secure IT hosting, encrypted communications and offsite backups maintenance ($15,000/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $9K/yr
[#2, #3] Locker maintenance, environmental monitoring, CCTV and playroom utilities/maintenance ($6,000 + $3,000/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $14.6M/yr
87.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with scheduled plays, routine deployments, and no major containment failures.
regular scheduled instances (~13/yr) no loss-state incidents standard deployments and training
🚨 Minor Incident $16.1M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
A single lost or halted game leads to a localized real-world incident requiring emergency response, elevated legal/PR response and additional compensation/payments.
game lost or halted >7 minutes localized violent incident requiring emergency mitigation urgent legal/PR and additional deployments
🚨 Major Breach $24.6M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
A significant containment failure or multiple simultaneous losses producing large-scale harm requiring major humanitarian, cover-up and remediation spending.
multiple lost games or high-consequence single loss widespread casualty/event with international attention need for major cover-up/humanitarian response
👥 Personnel 45 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Specialist Players 12 [#4] Baseline core player/analyst team (12 full-time specialists).
Research Scientist / Specialist (backup/on-call) 4 [#5] Backup/rotational players and on-call staff (4 additional specialists).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 [#6] On-site security staff (4 guards).
Rapid Response / MTF Operative 24 [#7] Three deployable teams of 8 operatives (24 total, includes medics and local coordination officers).
Administrative / Facility Staff 1 [#16] Staffing for secondary facility / offsite redundancy (~1 FTE equivalent covered by $80k/yr).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide explicit line-item estimates for most categories, improving precision; however many costs are highly variable (per-instance mitigation, legal/covert expenditures, catastrophic contingencies) so overall uncertainty remains.
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