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SCP-475 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-475
Expected annual
$1.3M
One-time setup
$2.1M
Annual recurring
$1.3M
Personnel
12
Initial one-time containment and infrastructure upgrades are moderate (~$2.07M) driven by a sealed wet-test chamber and a large contingency reserve; ongoing annual costs are substantial (~$1.29M/yr) driven by research, monitoring, and security/staff wages.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.1M
Contingency Reserve $1.2M
[#23] Recommended one-time contingency/liability reserve for catastrophic containment failures (midpoint of $500k–$2M).
Facilities $400K
[#2, #15] Sealed wet-test chamber construction and installation (~$350k) plus hazardous-waste containment/holding tank setup (~$50k).
Equipment $305K
[#1, #3, #4, #9, #16, #17, #18] Watertight locker (~$22,500), remote handling integration (~$100,000), environmental monitoring hardware (~$17,500), information-security hardware/server & biometric access (~$75,000), emergency/decon equipment (~$40,000), sealed-sample collection/setup (~$25,000), transport case/vehicle modifications (~$25,000).
Legal Pr Initial Retainer $50K
[#10] Initial legal/PR retainer to establish cover-story and litigation readiness.
Sop And Training Initial $30K
[#22] Initial SOP development and training package for handling and religious-sensitivity counseling.
Background Checks Initial $15K
[#8] Initial deep-background checks and psychological screening for a ~10-person core team (~$10k–$20k; midpoint used).
Regulatory Permits Initial $15K
[#20] Initial filings and permit costs for environmental/chemical/biological work (midpoint of $5k–$25k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[#11] No large one-time instrument purchase in baseline; baseline uses facility-access model for chemical analysis (recurring).
Veterinary Study Setup $0
[#19] Optional per-study veterinary/anomalous-animal setup (~$50k per study); not included in baseline one-time spend.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.3M/yr
Research And Monitoring $571K/yr
[#5, #11, #12, #13, #14, #21, #22, #27] Sensor calibration/monitoring services (~$6k), chemical analysis facility access and instrumentation time (~$225k), remainder of synthetic program operational costs (~$100k), human-subject testing follow-ups (~$20k), medical/psychiatric monitoring (~$100k), archive/recordkeeping (~$10k), SOP updates/training (~$10k), and public monitoring/intel (~$100k).
Staff Wages $450K/yr
[#7, #12, #28] Security staffing (2–4 FTEs; baseline midpoint ~3 FTEs -> $200k), synthetic chemistry salaries portion (~$150k of program cost), and program management/site director fractional FTE (~$100k).
Cover Story And Legal $100K/yr
[#10] Annual legal, PR, and cover-story reserve to handle leaks and potential litigation.
Supplies And Consumables $55K/yr
[#6, #16, #17, #25] PPE/consumables (~$5k), emergency training/replacement supplies (~$10k), sealed-sample consumables (~$10k), and misc lab consumables/reagents (~$30k).
Information Security Maintenance $25K/yr
[#9] Maintenance, audits, and secure endpoint upkeep for Level III infosecurity systems.
Opportunity Cost Overhead $25K/yr
[#26] Site allocation overhead and administrative/site janitorial allocations.
Facilities Maintenance $22K/yr
[#2, #24, #15] Wet-chamber maintenance and HVAC/utility overhead (~$15k/yr) plus energy/utilities (~$6,500/yr) and minor hazardous-waste system upkeep.
Hazardous Waste Operating Reserve $20K/yr
[#15] Annual operating reserve for hazardous-waste transport/disposal and sampling (~$20k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $10K/yr
[#18] Per-move secure transport costs (assumed ~1 move/year at midpoint ~$10k).
Regulatory Compliance Annual $5K/yr
[#20] Annual permit/inspection/compliance costs (~$5k/yr).
Background Checks Rechecks $4K/yr
[#8] Periodic re-checks and ongoing vetting for Level III personnel (~$2k–$5k/yr; midpoint used).
Veterinary Ongoing Care $0/yr
[#19] Ongoing animal-care costs are conditional (~$20k–$100k/yr if approved); not budgeted in baseline recurring costs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.3M/yr
92.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; standard research, monitoring, and containment operations only.
routine_operations no_spills steady_research_progress
🚨 Minor Incident $1.4M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
Localized containment event (small spill or limited unintended transmutation) requiring response, decon, and limited legal/PR action.
small_spill localized_water_transmutation minor_public_exposure
🚨 Major Breach $2.3M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or public exposure requiring large-scale remediation, litigation, and emergency operations.
public_exposure release_into_public_water large_scale_transformations
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $2.2M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$900K vs baseline
Successful identification/synthesis of the anomalous hydrophilic head leads to purchase of major instrumentation and scale-up facilities.
successful_synthesis decision_to_purchase_instruments scale_up_trials
👥 Personnel 12 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 3 [#7] Covers 2–4 assigned guards (midpoint 3) for site-level access control and escort duties.
Research Scientist 2 [#11, #12] Organic/analytical chemists leading characterization and synthetic programs (1–3 indicated; midpoint 2).
Research Technician 2 [#3, #17] Lab technicians for remote handling, sample collection, and analytical workflows.
Medical Officer 1 [#14] Clinical support for pre/post-test physicals and emergency care.
Psychiatrist / Counselor 1 [#14, #22] Psychiatric monitoring and religious-sensitivity counseling for subjects and staff.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#2, #16] Facilities/maintenance engineer for wet-chamber HVAC, decon systems, and remote-handling upkeep.
Administrative Staff 1 [#8, #21] Admin support for scheduling, chain-of-custody, and recordkeeping.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#10, #28] Program management and oversight, fractional FTE captured in program-management budget.
📋 Confidence Notes
Most items have explicit analyst estimates and clear mappings (facilities, equipment, recurring research), but many costs are presented as ranges and several line items are conditional (optional animal testing, possible instrument purchase), so overall confidence is medium.
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