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SCP-4809 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4809
Expected annual
$203.5M
One-time setup
$3.7B
Annual recurring
$187.8M
Personnel
531
Total one-time costs are dominated by a mandated family compensation payout (~$3.341B) plus facility retrofit and contingency reserves; recurring annual costs are driven by high-acuity patient care, research, security, and contingency replenishment (~$188M/yr). Most budgetary risk is concentrated in the one-time family payments and the recommended contingency reserve.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.7B
Family Compensation $3.3B
[#1] Mandated family payouts: 174× $19,200,000 = $3,340,800,000.
Contingency Reserve Initial $200.0M
[#20] Initial contingency / rapid-response reserve (recommended conservative lower bound of larger suggested range).
Facilities $130.0M
[#2] Emergency retrofit / expansion of MOU 279 (400-bed addition): structural and life-support upgrades; midpoint estimate used.
Equipment $45.0M
[#3] Major medical capital equipment for 400-bed unit: beds, monitors, ventilators, ancillary equipment; midpoint estimate used.
Insurance Reserve Initial $10.0M
[#21] Initial insurance/indemnity retainer / settlement reserve (conservative selection within $5M–$50M range).
Imaging Capital Mri $2.2M
[#7] On-site MRI purchase (capital): midpoint of $1.5M–$3M range.
Field Initial Response $2.0M
[#12] Initial field response to 243 IPs: midpoint of $0.5M–$3.5M initial response estimate.
Family Funeral Cover Payments $1.7M
[#19] Per-family funeral/cover payments for 174 cases (assumed $10k per family as cover expense).
Major Study Initial $1.5M
[#18] One-time seed for a major experimental study on repurposed braindead victims: conservative midpoint of $0.5M–$5M range.
Training And Sop Development $1.1M
[#22] One-time development for SOPs, safe-viewing infrastructure and training materials: midpoint of $100k–$2M.
Cyber Takedowns Initial $1.0M
[#11] Initial cyber takedown / legal costs: midpoint of $50k–$2M initial estimate.
Security System Installs $875K
[#16] One-time high-security system installs: midpoint of $250k–$1.5M.
Compute Hardware Io Prudence $750K
[#9] One-time secure GPU cluster and integration for I/O-PRUDENCE: midpoint of $300k–$1.2M.
Amnestics Family Administration $478K
[#8] Family amnestic administrations (one-time administrations for 174 families): midpoint of per-family administration estimate.
Secure Archive Vault Setup $300K
[#13] Air-gapped vault setup for secure archival / destruction: midpoint of $100k–$500k.
Cover Story Infrastructure $275K
[#19] Administrative forging and logistical staging to support cover story: midpoint of $50k–$500k.
Digital Forensics Tooling $250K
[#10] One-time tooling integration for digital-forensics/webcrawler ops: midpoint of $100k–$400k.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $187.8M/yr
High Acuity Premium $52.5M/yr
[#5] Intensive care and long-term life-support (high-acuity premium) for severe neurologic patients: midpoint of $35M–$70M for 174 patients.
Contingency Replenish $50.0M/yr
[#20] Annual replenishment target for contingency reserve to retain readiness for spikes; conservative recurring replenishment chosen.
Staff Wages $29.0M/yr
[#4] Ongoing patient-care operational budget (ward-level): staff wages and core operating costs for current census; prorated midpoint used.
Supplies And Consumables $17.5M/yr
[#6] Consumables and pharmaceuticals (antiepileptics, sedatives, PPE): midpoint of $5M–$30M.
Research And Monitoring $15.0M/yr
[#14] Multi-year research program for pathophysiology and countermeasures: conservative mid-sized program selection.
Security Physical $7.5M/yr
[#16] Annual armed guards, access control and security tech payroll and systems for a secure MOU: midpoint of $3M–$12M/yr.
Neurodiagnostics And Imaging $4.5M/yr
[#7] Recurring imaging & neurodiagnostic costs (scan volume / contracted services): midpoint of $1M–$8M/yr.
Insurance Renewal $2.5M/yr
[#21] Annual insurance/indemnity renewal / legal exposure reserve: midpoint of $250k–$1M retainer plus reserve amortization.
Braindead Maintenance $2.1M/yr
[#18] Bridge-maintenance for braindead victims until experimentation: assumed ~17 patients (10% of current census) × midpoint $125k/yr per patient.
Cover Story And Legal $1.8M/yr
[#11,#15,#19] Ongoing legal retainer, ethics/oversight costs, and cover-story maintenance (aggregated recurring legal/ethics/cover costs).
Web Ops And Analysts $1.4M/yr
[#10] Digital-forensics, webcrawler ops and continuous internet monitoring staffing and tooling (staffing 6–12 analysts): midpoint used.
Logistics And Transport $1.2M/yr
[#12] Ongoing field operations / watch & response budget: midpoint of $500k–$2M/yr.
Internet Suppression Monitoring $1.1M/yr
[#23] Ongoing platform relationships, monitoring, and platform liaison contracts: midpoint of $250k–$2M/yr.
Psychological Support $850K/yr
[#17] Psychological support, retraining and occupational health for exposed staff: midpoint of $200k–$1.5M/yr.
Training Recurring $275K/yr
[#22] Continuing training and recertification: midpoint of $50k–$500k/yr.
Compute Recurring $150K/yr
[#9] Recurring maintenance, electricity, and licensing for I/O-PRUDENCE compute pipeline: midpoint of $50k–$250k/yr.
Secure Handling $150K/yr
[#13] Secure handling and destruction operational recurring costs: midpoint of $50k–$250k/yr.
Amnestic Stock And Use $100K/yr
[#8] Ongoing stock and occasional administration contingency for amnestics: analyst mid estimate.
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $187.8M/yr
89.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; ongoing patient care, research, monitoring, and routine takedown work only.
no new mass exposures routine operations only
🚨 Minor Incident $192.8M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized spike in online exposures requiring additional field ops, takedowns, amnestic administrations, and short-term surge staffing.
small cluster of new accesses additional field responses and takedowns
🚨 Mass Victim Spike $1.7B/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.5B vs baseline
Significant re-emergence leading to large number of new victims (e.g., the initial 243-access event expands to victims), triggering additional mandated family payouts and major emergency expenditures.
mass public exposure large new cohort of victims requiring payouts
👥 Personnel 531 total
Role Count Notes
Nurse (RNs) 180 [#4,#5] Ward nursing staff to support high-acuity inpatient census.
Medical Officer 12 [#4,#5] Attending physicians / intensivists for specialist review and ICU care.
Respiratory Therapist / ICU tech 24 [#4,#5] Ventilator and airway management staff for long-term support.
CNA / Support staff 80 [#4] Patient aides, turnover, and basic care staffing.
Pharmacist 4 [#4,#6] Medication management and anti-epileptic therapy oversight.
Dietitian 4 [#4] Tube-feed and nutrition management for long-term patients.
Imaging Technician 6 [#7] MRI/CT/EEG technicians for frequent neurodiagnostic imaging.
Medical Technician / Research Coordinator 12 [#14,#18] Support for research activities, trial coordination, and lab work.
Administrative Staff 8 [#19] Administration, records, and cover-story documentation support.
Psychologist / Psychiatrist 4 [#17] Staff counseling, occupational health, and monitoring for exposed staff.
Engineer / Maintenance 5 [#2,#16] Facilities maintenance, HVAC, and life-support systems support.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 150 [#16] Armed guards and security techs for 24/7 secure facility operations.
Digital Forensics Analyst / Webcrawler Ops 10 [#9,#10] Analysts and operators running I/O-PRUDENCE, webcrawler, and takedown coordination.
Research Scientist 20 [#14] Neuroscience and countermeasure research staff supported by research program budget.
IT / Systems Engineer 8 [#9,#10] Maintain air-gapped clusters, storage, encryption, and rendering pipelines.
Legal / Ethics Counsel 3 [#11,#15] In-house counsel and ethics oversight for legal, compliance, and cover-story decisions.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#15] Site-level leadership and executive oversight.
📋 Confidence Notes
Line items are well-described with ranges and a legally mandated family payout, giving moderate confidence. Significant uncertainties remain (future victim counts, required contingency size, and research timelines), so many categories use midpoints and assumptions.
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