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SCP-4845 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4845
Expected annual
$425.8M
One-time setup
$2.8B
Annual recurring
$404.8M
Personnel
30
Initial capital to establish Site-169 and related systems is in the low-single-digit billions (major drivers: lunar site construction, launch/transport and crewed lander development). Annual operating costs are hundreds of millions, dominated by insurance/reserve and logistics/wormhole operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.8B
Facilities $1.2B
[#1, #22, #25, #26] Includes lunar site construction (habitats, airlocks, shielding), training facility buildout, one-time environmental monitoring station installs, and decommissioning cost estimates.
Launch And Delivery $900.0M
[#2] Multiple heavy-launch campaign costs to ferry modules and heavy equipment to the Moon if wormhole cargo is not used (campaign-level one-time logistics).
Equipment $701.0M
[#3, #4, #5, #6, #12, #16, #17] Equipment and hardware capital: crewed-lander development, wormhole stabilizers, power interface hardware, communications endpoints, surface mobility vehicle acquisition, security equipment/training hardware, and emergency/termination assets.
Medical And Quarantine Infrastructure $27.5M
[#13] On-site isolation suites and BSL-2+/3 Earth lab outfitting for sample analysis and quarantine facilities.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $21.2M
[#14, #28] Laboratory buildout and specialized instrumentation for anomalous study (capital equipment for research and calibration-capable rigs).
Initial Legal Strategy $550K
[#18] One-time legal/treaty strategy and initial covert compliance setup costs.
Forensic Field Investigation $250K
[#21] Per-incident domestic forensic/investigation costs (travel, local cover, sample collection).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $404.8M/yr
Insurance Reserve $283.1M/yr
[#23] Self-insurance/reserve recommended at ~10% of capital/program budget annually (applied against one-time capital).
Logistics And Transport $50.0M/yr
[#10, #3] Annual resupply and crew-rotation flight operations (assumes limited rocket flights due to wormhole use; includes per-flight recurring costs when applicable).
Facilities Maintenance $20.3M/yr
[#11, #5] Habitat and equipment maintenance plus power-interface ongoing maintenance.
Administration Overhead $11.0M/yr
[#27] Program management, HR, procurement, secrecy office and overhead (estimated at ~10% of non-insurance annual ops).
Cover Story And Legal $9.5M/yr
[#18, #19, #20, #29] Recurring legal/diplomatic work, cover-up operations, imagery alteration, planted personnel, PR/misinformation campaigns.
Research And Monitoring $7.8M/yr
[#8, #14, #15, #24, #25, #28] Data storage/processing, recurring research staff and consumables, psychological monitoring, long-term health monitoring, environmental monitoring, and instrumentation consumables/calibration.
Staff Wages $6.0M/yr
[#9] On-site rotational crew salaries and rotation costs (12–40 person rotational crew; fully-burdened).
Wormhole Operations $5.0M/yr
[#4] Wormhole stabilization, control systems operations and redundant backups annual ops/maintenance.
Surface Vehicle Maintenance $3.0M/yr
[#12] Ongoing maintenance for rovers, pressurized EV suits, and MEEVSR upkeep.
Security Personnel $3.0M/yr
[#16] Recurring security personnel costs, training refreshers, and remote intervention staffing.
Cybersecurity And Content Monitoring $1.8M/yr
[#7] Human analysts, ML filtering, forensic logging, and recurring software/service costs for monitoring SCP-4845 traffic.
Supplies And Consumables $1.0M/yr
[#30] Operational consumables, EVA consumables, spare O-rings, propellants for guardians, stockpile replenishment.
Communications And Bandwidth $1.0M/yr
[#6] Hardened routers, leased bandwidth equivalents, encrypted data bridges and continuous monitoring channel recurring costs.
Medical And Quarantine Recurring $1.0M/yr
[#13] Ongoing medical staffing, quarantine upkeep, consumables and specialist care costs.
Training Recurring $800K/yr
[#22] Recurrent training, certification, simulations, and emergency drills.
Emergency Reaction Maintenance $500K/yr
[#17] Maintenance and testing of emergency isolation/termination assets and fail-safes.
Covert Recruitment $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $404.8M/yr
75.0% probability / year
Normal operational year using wormhole for most transport; routine maintenance, monitoring, and cover operations only.
stable_wormhole_operations routine_maintenance no_major_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $409.8M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized anomalous event requiring additional forensic, medical and temporary operational surge.
localized_anomalous_event temporary_evacuations extra_forensics
🚨 Wormhole Failure And Conventional Switch $804.8M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$400.0M vs baseline
Wormhole becomes unreliable/unusable for cargo; program must pivot to conventional lunar supply and increased launch cadence.
wormhole_failure increased_launch_campaigns major_logistics_shift
👥 Personnel 30 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 8 [#9] Scientific staff included in on-site personnel wages for sample analysis and ongoing study.
Engineer / Maintenance 6 [#9] Structural, life-support, and rover maintenance engineers.
Life-support Technician 6 [#9] On-site life-support operations and environmental control staff.
Medical Officer 2 [#9] On-site medical support for personnel rotations and quarantine response.
Administrative Staff 2 [#9] HR, logistics coordination and program admin included in staff wages.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#9] Program lead / site director covered by on-site wages.
Support Staff 5 [#9] Rotating support personnel (cooks, cleaners, mission specialists) included in on-site wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on analyst-provided ranges and canonical containment details (wormhole link, lunar site), but major uncertainty remains around wormhole cargo capacity and program scale choices (full lunar base vs wormhole-reliant outpost), so figures are midpoint-based with substantial variance.
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