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SCP-4844 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-4844
Expected annual
$44.1M
One-time setup
$513.4M
Annual recurring
$39.8M
Personnel
20
One-time capital, salvage and large contingency reserves dominate costs (~$513.4M one-time), while recurring annual operations are driven by continuous Caspian vessel chartering, R&D and continuous LA surveillance/legal cover (~$39.775M/yr). Major cost drivers are vessel operations, R&D/neutralization programs, large contingency reserves for public exposure and reality-bending side-effects.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $513.4M
Contingency Reality Bend Reserve $150.0M
[#28] Flexible contingency reserve for unforeseen reality-bending side-effects (midpoint of recommended reserve range).
Artifact Public Exposure Reserve $125.0M
[#24] One-time rapid-compensation / disaster relief reserve for public-exposure events (midpoint of recommended range).
Termination Rd One Time $110.0M
[#27] One-time high-cost termination/neutralization R&D (weaponization trials, prototypes).
Insurance Reserve $30.0M
[#20] One-time contingency pool / legal reserve to cover liabilities and settlements (midpoint of recommended reserve).
Decommissioning Fund $30.0M
[#25] Long-term decommissioning / site remediation fund (midpoint estimate).
Equipment $19.9M
[#2, #6, #7, #8, #17] Covert LA install, ROV(s), manned submersible (purchase), saturation/penetration hardware (one-time components), secure datacenter hardware.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $13.8M
[#13, #11] R&D seed funding and initial artifact conservation/cataloguing campaign (lab setup and starting program capital).
Salvage And Recovery Campaign $10.0M
[#9] Initial clandestine salvage/extraction heavy-lift & recovery campaign (barges, cranes, rigs, conservation teams).
Contingency Rapid Response Fund $10.0M
[#14] Retainer / mobilisation fund to contract naval/air assets in emergent public-threat scenarios.
Diplomatic Covert Access Initial $10.0M
[#15] Initial payments/port access/ship-flagging/covert logistics setup in Caspian littoral states.
Facilities $4.0M
[#10] Hardened vault/lab facility build (environmental controls, redundant power, shielding).
Cover Story Initial Setup $250K
[#4] One-time legal/cover program establishment (fake fronts, initial NDAs, legal setup).
Medical Setup $250K
[#19] One-time decon/medical surveillance facility setup.
Personnel Security Setup $200K
[#18] One-time setup for personnel vetting infrastructure, initial polygraphs and counterintelligence processes.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $39.8M/yr
Logistics And Transport $11.5M/yr
[#5, #22] Continuous DP vessel charter for Caspian operations (midpoint ~$10M/yr) plus aviation charters/heavy transport (~$1.5M/yr).
Global Monitoring Premium $6.5M/yr
[#23] Modest augmentation for continent-wide redundant monitoring (mid-range of recommended augmentation).
Research And Monitoring $5.7M/yr
[#3, #13] Ongoing technical maintenance/data processing, cloud/edge processing, analysts; ongoing R&D/containment program operating costs.
Contingency Rapid Response Maintenance $3.5M/yr
[#14] Annual maintenance / retainer costs to keep rapid-response contracting capability available.
Staff Wages $3.1M/yr
[#1, #12] LA covert surveillance team wages + core scientific research staff (loaded salaries and benefits).
Insurance Annual $3.0M/yr
[#20] Annual insurance / legal risk reserves and liability pool contributions (partial coverage estimate).
Diplomatic Access Maintenance $2.0M/yr
[#15] Recurring payments, port rights, covert logistics and legal work to maintain access in Caspian littoral states.
Cover Story And Legal $1.8M/yr
[#4, #21] Ongoing celebrity legal/cover program, PR retainer, paid front publications and cultural cover operations.
Saturation Ops Support $800K/yr
[#8] Ongoing operations/support for saturation/diving bell systems (gas mixes, maintenance, deck handling).
Satellite And Sigint $600K/yr
[#16] Commercial satellite tasking, AIS monitoring, RF geolocation and SIGINT subscriptions (mid-range cadence).
Secure Data Infrastructure $350K/yr
[#17] Datacenter operations, backups, threat-hunting and cyberdefense recurring costs.
Supplies And Consumables $300K/yr
[#11] Artifact conservation follow-up, specialized crates, climate-control transport and consumables.
Medical Surveillance $300K/yr
[#19] Recurring medical monitoring, counseling and decontamination suite operations.
Personnel Security Operations $225K/yr
[#18] Ongoing background checks, polygraph programs, continuous monitoring and insider-risk mitigation.
Ethical Oversight $200K/yr
[#26] Independent oversight, red-team reviews and external auditing.
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $39.8M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with continuous surveillance, R&D and maintenance but no major public incidents or large-scale recovery campaigns.
no public manifestation routine operations only
🚨 Minor Incident $44.8M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized public manifestation or retrieval operation requiring targeted salvage, legal/PR intervention and modest emergency mobilization.
small public manifestation targeted recovery operation legal/PR payout
🚨 Major Breach $164.8M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$125.0M vs baseline
Large public-exposure event or catastrophic reality-bending side-effect requiring major emergency funds, large-scale salvage/decontamination, deployment of contingency reserves and extended R&D/response.
widespread public manifestation large-scale property damage or casualties activation of major contingency reserves
👥 Personnel 20 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#1] Covert unmarked vehicle teams and plainclothes operatives for LA surveillance (estimate provided in notes).
Research Scientist 12 [#12] Physicists, anomaly specialists, materials scientists, memetics/psych and maritime archaeologists (O(10) FTEs).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide many detailed line items and mid-range estimates, but large ranges and deep uncertainty around anomalous behaviours and political/operational access reduce certainty; therefore medium confidence.
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