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SCP-4856 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4856
Expected annual
$16.0M
One-time setup
$61.2M
Annual recurring
$15.2M
Personnel
25
Initial capital and reserve requirements are large (roughly $57.7M one-time in this plan), driven by structural retrofits, Gen(Tau)-class AI hosting and multiple contingency reserves. Recurring annual costs are substantial (~$15.2M/yr), dominated by MTF readiness, specialist staffing, AI operations, and capital refresh amortization.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $61.2M
Equipment $25.9M
[#3, #4, #13, #22, #11, #23, #10, #8] Forethought.aic hardware & cluster (~$20M), site surveillance/sensor installs (~$750k), imaging upgrades (~$1.0M), vehicle fleet purchase (~$300k), initial non-lethal kit (~$100k), specialized restraints (~$200k), initial ELSM device stock (~$85k), and MTF Bootstrappers equipment/training pipeline initial purchase (~$3.5M).
Paradox Contingency Reserve $10.0M
[#27] High-level contingency to be set aside for paradox resolution / unknown temporal costs (protocol recommends $10M+).
Facilities $9.7M
[#1, #2, #5] Secure retrofit of CA-54-09 (~$8.0M), initial perimeter/internal hardening (~$600k initial), and power infrastructure/generator purchases (~$1.125M).
Emergency Response Reserve $5.0M
[#19] Contingency/escrow for rapid rebuilds, emergency contractor call-outs and replacement equipment (recommended reserve ~$5M).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.0M
[#12, #16] Surgical robot/R&D-specific surgical infrastructure (~$2.0M) and temporal-anomaly sensor R&D/setup (~$2.0M).
Mtf Bootstrapper Initial $3.5M
[#8] One-time specialized equipment and training pipeline for Mobile Task Force Eta-Then (recommended $2M–$5M; using midpoint).
Slush Fund Reserve $2.0M
[#28] One-time reserve for off-books/gray ops / bribes (~$1M–$3M; using midpoint).
Covert Initial Cache $1.0M
[#20] Initial covert/cover-up facilitation cache for false records, facilitation and local contacts (~$1M).
Elsm Initial Stock $85K
[#10] Initial stock purchase of Embedded Life-Sign Monitors for on-site needs (approx. 10-device starter stock at ~$8.5k each).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $15.2M/yr
Mtf Bootstrapper Operations $4.5M/yr
[#8] Annual MTF Eta-Then readiness, salaries, training and clandestine logistics (~$3M–$6M/yr; using midpoint $4.5M/yr).
Research And Monitoring $2.9M/yr
[#3, #12, #13, #16] Forethought.aic operations & engineering (~$1.0M/yr), medical/surgical research budget (~$1.5M/yr), imaging maintenance (~$75k/yr), and temporal-sensor operating/testing (~$300k/yr).
Staff Wages $2.5M/yr
[#6, #7] Security staffing (12 guards + supervisor; ~$1.05M/yr) and specialist personnel (researchers, technicians, AI ops; ~$1.45M/yr).
Capital Refresh Amortized $1.8M/yr
[#29] Annualized capital refresh for AI compute, cameras and sensors (~$1M–$2.5M/yr amortized; midpoint used).
Facilities Maintenance $1.1M/yr
[#2, #4, #5, #21] Ongoing perimeter/internal reinforcement (~$200k/yr), sensor/network maintenance (~$100k/yr), generator fuel & maintenance (~$300k/yr), and site utilities/administrative facilities (~$500k/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $500K/yr
[#20] Ongoing covert cover-up, legal and media manipulation operations (~$500k/yr).
Cybersecurity And Backups $475K/yr
[#17] Cybersecurity specialists, audits, hardened hardware and tested backups (~$250k–$500k/yr plus ~$100k/yr backups; using midpoint).
Slush Fund Topup $250K/yr
[#28] Recurring top-ups for slush fund/illegal/gray ops (~$250k/yr assumed).
Training And Drills $225K/yr
[#24] Recurring training, simulations and psychological preparedness (~$150k–$300k/yr; midpoint used).
Supplies And Consumables $220K/yr
[#11, #14, #23, #30] Non-lethal consumables & training munitions (~$25k/yr), biohazard containment & disposal (~$100k/yr), restraints upkeep (~$20k/yr), and misc consumables (~$75k/yr).
Red Team Budget $200K/yr
[#18] Red-team simulations and paradox/containment stress tests (~$200k/yr).
Archival And Records $175K/yr
[#26] Long-term archival, records integrity and misinformation management (~$100k–$250k/yr; midpoint used).
Structural Inspections $150K/yr
[#15] Daily inspections, structural monitoring staff and consumables for CA-54-09 (~$150k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $145K/yr
[#9, #22] D-Class procurement/processing (~$30k/yr) and vehicle fuel & maintenance (~$115k/yr).
Psychological Support $100K/yr
[#25] Counseling, staff replacement and surge HR costs baseline (~$100k/yr).
Elsm Telemetry $4K/yr
[#10] Ongoing telemetry, storage and verification costs for implanted ELSMs (~$2k/implant/yr; assume ~2 active implants on average).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $15.2M/yr
80.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with standard operations, maintenance, staffing and amortized capital refresh.
no major breaches routine operations and maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $16.7M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Localized breach or iteration-caused damage requiring targeted repairs, short-term surge MTF activity, and increased forensic/medical spend.
single-location breach limited paradox-related disruption localized rebuild and investigation
🚨 Major Paradox Breach $27.2M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$12.0M vs baseline
Significant causal-chain failure requiring large MTF Bootstrappers deployment, multi-site covert ops, major rebuilds and large covert cover-up operations.
causal chain does not close widespread temporal/paradox cascade multi-site covert operations
👥 Personnel 25 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#6] 12 dedicated on-site guards (rotating shifts) as per staffing estimate used to compute security wages.
Site Security Supervisor 1 [#6] Site security supervisor to manage guard contingent and QRF coordination.
Research Scientist 4 [#7, #12] Dedicated researchers tasked with monitoring Forethought outputs and surgical/medical research.
Technician / Engineer 6 [#7, #15] Technicians and site engineers handling hardware maintenance, inspections and structural fixes.
AI Operator / Systems Admin 2 [#3, #7, #17] Operators and ML/ops staff for Forethought.aic, secure archival maintenance and cyber-hardening.
📋 Confidence Notes
Notes provide detailed line-item estimates for most categories, but large uncertainties remain around Gen(Tau)-class AI development costs and the open-ended expenses of paradox resolution; these drive medium confidence.
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