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SCP-4861 Uncontained ? low confidence
SCP-4861
Expected annual
$183.9M
One-time setup
$1.2B
Annual recurring
$107.8M
Personnel
176
Initial one-time preparations and large contingency reserves dominate costs (~$1.24B one-time), with ongoing monitoring, R&D and staffing driving recurring costs (~$108M/yr). Main drivers are victim compensation, urban reconstruction/exclusion buyouts and large-scale R&D/contingency funds.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.2B
Urban Reconstruction One Time $500.0M
[#15] Reserve for infrastructure rebuilds, economic mitigation, and long-term damage to city assets (very city-dependent).
Victim Compensation Reserve One Time $200.0M
[#14] Foundation's estimated share of victim compensation/resettlement (very uncertain; mid-range reserve).
Escalation Contingency Fund One Time $200.0M
[#22] Large liquid reserve for failed-containment/escalation options (experimental weapons, relocations, emergency buyouts).
Temporal Research Initial $100.0M
[#24] One-time capital for speculative long-range research into preventive/temporal measures (initial program funding).
Long Term Exclusion Buyouts $50.0M
[#6] Land-control buyouts / compensation for long-term exclusion (highly city-dependent).
Specialized Containment Facility $30.0M
[#10] Construction / one-time capital for hardened containment or mobile facility (Faraday rooms, hardened chambers).
Alternate Site Preparation One Time $30.0M
[#23] Preparation of distant secure relocation/research sites (infrastructure, utilities, security upgrades).
Anti Psionic R&D Capital $25.0M
[#9] Initial capital for anti-psionic R&D facilities, prototype hardware, and high-spec instruments.
Masquerade Initial Suppression $20.0M
[#13] Immediate media buys, settlements, and ad-hoc payments to suppress coverage and preserve Masquerade (initial short-term effort).
Political Military Response Reserve One Time $20.0M
[#25] One-time reserve for emergency diplomacy, payments to partners, or rapid military access costs.
Evacuation Asset Purchase $11.0M
[#3] Purchase of modest fleet (buses, trucks) and several medium-lift helicopters (one-time ownership option).
Field Hospital Kits One Time $10.0M
[#8] Purchase of modular field hospitals/ICU trailers (3-kit package).
Pathology Lab Upgrades One Time $10.0M
[#17] Facility upgrades and high-containment neuropathology equipment for large-scale forensic studies.
High Risk Ops Training Init $6.0M
[#11] Initial training, specialized PPE and psionic-protection equipment for high-risk teams.
Liaison One Time Concessions $5.0M
[#12] One-off concessions/payments/secure-comms purchases tied to GoI diplomacy.
Environmental Remediation Initial $5.0M
[#16] Initial environmental remediation, cleanup and removal of biohazards/debris post-event.
Litigation Reserve One Time $5.0M
[#19] One-time legal reserve for immediate lawsuit responses and settlements.
Mass Casualty Additional Facilities $3.0M
[#5] One-time setup for temporary morgues, mass cremation/processing facilities and temporary body-storage infrastructure.
Psych Support Initial One Time $2.0M
[#18] Initial setup of mass psychological support programs, staff hiring and outreach for survivors/staff.
Data And Biobank Setup One Time $2.0M
[#27] Secure biobank and classified archival cold storage setup (samples/data preservation).
Secure Deletion And Opsec Systems $1.5M
[#20] One-time secure deletion systems, cryptographic archives and OPSEC infrastructure (reflects Addendum deletion requirements).
Communications Infrastructure One Time $1.5M
[#21] One-time purchases for redundant broadcast systems, satellite phones and emergency messaging infrastructure.
Emergency Program Office Setup One Time $300K
[#1] One-time setup costs for dedicated program office (salaries/startup, office, travel).
Facilities $0
[]
Equipment $0
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Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
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🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $107.8M/yr
Research And Monitoring $59.0M/yr
[#2, #9, #24, #17, #16] Continuous city surveillance/early-warning, annual R&D program funding for anti-psionic countermeasures, speculative temporal research recurring spend, ongoing forensic studies and environmental monitoring.
Opportunity Costs Per Year $20.0M/yr
[#28] Estimated annualized opportunity cost from diverted staff and paused programs (internal budget impact).
Staff Wages $14.4M/yr
[#1, #7, #11, #12, #17, #8] Salaries and benefits for emergency planners, perimeter/security rotations, high-risk ops teams, liaison staff, forensic pathology staff and key medical responders.
Logistics And Transport $5.5M/yr
[#3, #4, #21] Retainers / contracts for evacuation transport, helicopter/airlift contracting (if not purchased), mass-evacuation logistics retainer and comms transport contracts.
Cover Story And Legal $4.0M/yr
[#13, #19, #12, #25] Ongoing masquerade-preservation operations, legal retainers, diplomatic liaison operating costs and small-scale international engagement funds.
Supplies And Consumables $1.5M/yr
[#4, #5, #8, #11] Consumables (PPE, medical supplies, morgue supplies, fuel, food and short-term shelter supplies).
Facilities Maintenance $1.0M/yr
[#6, #10, #23] Ongoing maintenance, utilities and minor repairs for exclusion perimeter infrastructure, containment facilities and alternate sites.
Training Exercises Per Year $1.0M/yr
[#26] Full-scale simulations and public drills (annual or semi-annual exercises).
Psych Support Ongoing Per Year $1.0M/yr
[#18] Ongoing counseling, PTSD treatment and staff support programs.
Opsec Maintenance Per Year $200K/yr
[#20] Ongoing maintenance and operational costs for secure deletion/OPSEC systems and audits.
Data Archive Maintenance Per Year $200K/yr
[#27] Annual costs to maintain secure archives, cold storage and classified data redundancy.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $107.8M/yr
91.0% probability / year
Normal year with preparedness, monitoring and no major event or containment failure.
no appearance or successful pre-appearance evacuation routine operations and monitoring
🚨 Failed Evacuation Major Cordon $1.1B/yr
7.0% probability / year +$1.0B vs baseline
Evacuation fails / SCP-4861 activates over a city, producing mass casualties, long-term exclusion and heavy compensation / reconstruction burdens.
evacuation not completed before appearance mass casualties and partial Broken Masquerade long-term exclusion / reconstruction required
🚨 Neutralization Attempt Escalation $357.8M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$250.0M vs baseline
Active large-scale neutralization/containment attempts requiring major R&D scale-up, new hardened facilities and experimental operations.
decision to attempt neutralization/containment scale-up of anti-psionic R&D and construction of hardened facilities
👥 Personnel 176 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 80 [#7] Rotational perimeter and checkpoint staffing (50–150 estimated; 24/7 coverage).
Research Scientist 25 [#9, #24] Scientists assigned to anti-psionic R&D and speculative temporal/preventive research programs.
Research Technician / Lab Staff 20 [#17, #9] Lab technicians for neuropathology, sample processing and R&D support.
Emergency Planning / Coordination Staff 12 [#1] Senior planners, admin and liaison personnel (~10 FTE plus support).
High-risk Ops Specialists 20 [#11] Trained hazardous containment teams, PPE specialists and quick reaction forces.
Medical Officer / Field Hospital Staff 10 [#8] Deployable medical teams for triage and critical care.
Administrative Staff 5 [#1, #20] Program admin, OPSEC/cyberops liaison and records staff.
Liaison / Diplomatic Analysts 2 [#12, #25] Analysts and diplomatic liaisons for GoI and government coordination.
Forensic Pathologists 2 [#17] Specialist neuropathology staff for victim studies and autopsies.
📋 Confidence Notes
Large uncertainties in location, legal exposure, Foundation share of compensation, and speculative R&D make precise estimates unreliable; many line items are broad ranges and city-dependent, giving low confidence.
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