SCP-4862 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4862
Expected annual
$1.7M
One-time setup
$2.7M
Annual recurring
$1.6M
Personnel
12
Estimated up-front capital of $2,740,000 to secure and outfit the site, with primary one-time drivers being site acquisition, equipment and contingency reserves; recurring annual costs ~ $1,599,500 driven by security payroll, pathology/research staffing, administrative overhead, monitoring, and medical/logistics support.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.7M
Large Scale Engineering Option $1.0M
[#26] Cost to fully encase/excavate/isolate the feature if escalation requires permanent engineering containment (contingent, lower-bound placeholder).
Facilities $730K
[#1, #3, #4, #15] Site acquisition/seizure, perimeter construction, sealing side entrances, and decontamination/quarantine setup structural costs (mid-range aggregated estimates).
Equipment $530K
[#5, #6, #7, #8, #16, #17, #29] Vault door refurbishment, surveillance package, environmental/geophysical sensors, power/generator/UPS, remote mapping robotics, data-processing hardware, and secure communications hardware (initial purchases/refurbishment).
Contingency Fund $250K
[#23] Liquid contingency reserve for urgent escalation (minimum recommended tranche; on-hold/emergency use).
Records Expungement $150K
[#2] Up-front legal/IT/archival work to purge and replace records, create cover documents and plausible demolition/fake records (one-time purge/replace costs).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $80K
[#18] Initial laboratory characterization and BSL-appropriate setup / contracted instrument time for initial analyses.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.6M/yr
Staff Wages $655K/yr
[#9, #11, #19] Direct salaries: on-site security (8 guards), Level-3 researcher allocation, pathology/research personnel (aggregated team salaries).
Administrative Overhead $196K/yr
[#28] Program administrative overhead, benefits, clearance processing and accounting (~30% of direct personnel salaries).
Medical Support $170K/yr
[#13, #22] Medevac/on-call ambulance readiness for expeditions, routine medical surveillance, baseline exams, follow-up care for lesions/respiratory symptoms, and psychological screening/counseling for personnel.
Cover Story And Legal $150K/yr
[#2] Ongoing legal retainer, PR monitoring, FOIA responses, and active cover-story maintenance costs.
Research And Monitoring $128K/yr
[#6, #7, #17, #18, #30] Continuous surveillance and monitoring service costs, environmental sensor calibration/data-logging, data processing/archival costs, recurring lab follow-ups/sample archiving, and forensic data storage/analysis.
Facilities Maintenance $89K/yr
[#3, #5, #8, #15, #24, #25] Perimeter/gate repairs, vault door mechanical maintenance, power/generator upkeep, decon consumables/maintenance, ground-stability monitoring, and incremental perimeter-scaling maintenance.
Robotics And Equipment Repair $70K/yr
[#16, #27] Maintenance, spare parts, batteries, and lifecycle replacement costs for robotics, LiDAR, drones, cameras and field equipment.
Logistics And Transport $66K/yr
[#10, #12] Monthly expedition transport/escort costs (vehicles, overtime, per diems) and D-Class transport/housing/overhead for monthly excursions.
Supplies And Consumables $35K/yr
[#14, #20, #15] PPE disposables and replacement consumables, hazardous waste disposal/contractor fees, and decon consumables.
Security Equipment And Training $20K/yr
[#9] Small equipment and recurring training specific to security staffing (boots, non-lethal gear, refresher training).
Training And Drills $15K/yr
[#21] Regular SOP training, drills, entry/exit and decontamination rehearsals.
Secure Communications $5K/yr
[#29] Recurring costs for encrypted radios, satellite airtime and comms redundancy for field teams.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.6M/yr
90.0% probability / year
Normal year with monthly expeditions, routine monitoring, and no major incidents.
monthly_mapping_expeditions routine_maintenance no breaches or large incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $1.7M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Localized incident during an expedition requiring medevac, short-term emergency engineering and equipment replacement.
expedition_medical_emergency localized structural destabilization equipment loss/damage
🚨 Major Breach $6.6M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant containment escalation: large structural failure, multiple casualties, major forensic/legal response and possible emergency engineering.
structural_collapse multiple_LOST_personnel public_exposure / large legal action
👥 Personnel 12 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#9] 8 guards on rotating shifts (8 × $45k salary each = $360k direct salaries).
Research Scientist (Level-3 Researcher) 1 [#11] One Level-3 researcher allocated to monthly expeditions (pro-rated salary allocation ~$45k/yr).
Pathologist 1 [#19] Senior pathology lead for long-term medical research (salary portion included in pathology/research program).
Research Technician 2 [#19] Laboratory/field technicians supporting pathology and sample processing (aggregated to reach pathology program salary total).
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items are provided as wide ranges and several costs are contingent on escalation decisions; estimates use midpoints and conservative placeholders (e.g., engineering contingency) so uncertainty is moderate rather than low.
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