SCP-4864 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4864
Expected annual
$3.1M
One-time setup
$2.1M
Annual recurring
$3.1M
Personnel
13.5
Initial setup costs are moderate (~$2.14M), led by equipment and R&D purchases (imaging, robotic/surgical systems, transport). Recurring annual costs are driven by personnel, field surveillance/MTF readiness, and contingency funds (~$3.08M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.1M
Equipment $1.6M
[#2, #3, #8, #10, #11, #14, #20, #24] Glovebox and BSL workstation, secure IT/server hardware and integration, retrofit secure transport vehicle, imaging/sensor suite, surgical/tooling/robotic systems and R&D budgets (including projectile/focused-ultrasound prototyping), PPE kit & autoclave, secure archive hardware, spare medallion/duplicate tools.
Facilities $305K
[#1, #9] Secure storage locker upgrade at Site-17 and construction/modification of multiple human-quality holding cells (several cells assumed; structural and fit-out costs).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $275K
[#12, #13, #21] Autopsy/pathology lab setup and protocol establishment, initial procurement and greenhouse setup for required plants/minerals, establishment/access costs for neuroimaging and specialized forensic instrumentation.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.1M/yr
Staff Wages $975K/yr
[#4, #5, #6, #7] Senior researcher and 2 lab techs, psychologist and prorated physician FTE, dedicated site security guards, and dedicated field intelligence/agent staffing time.
Contingency Recapture Fund $500K/yr
[#18] Standing contingency for emergency MTF deployment, helicopters, perimeter lockdown and remediation; funds available for per-event mobilization.
Mtf Readiness Fund $400K/yr
[#6] Mobile Task Force on-call readiness and periodic deployment budget for Faulkner-23 and similar strike-capable assets.
Field Surveillance And Extraction Ops $350K/yr
[#7] HUMINT/OSINT monitoring of MC&D associates, dedicated analyst/agent time, surveillance equipment, travel and extraction mission support (operational budget for routine activity).
Research And Monitoring $275K/yr
[#12, #10, #21, #19] Per-autopsy/pathology analysis events (histology, biochemistry), ongoing forensic/chemical/neural studies, per-scan neuroimaging fees and routine long-term monitoring of exposed subjects.
Insurance And Liabilities $150K/yr
[#23] Insurance/indemnity, liaison with cover agencies and compensation funds for civilian harm or insider liabilities.
Cover Story And Legal $120K/yr
[#17, #20, #25] Ethics Committee legal support and administrative overhead, cover-story/false-paper operations and takedown budgets, classified archive takedown and suppression activities.
Logistics And Transport $65K/yr
[#8] Operational costs for secure transport vehicle (fuel, drivers, maintenance) and routine medical/containment transport.
Public Relations And Cognitive Mitigation $60K/yr
[#25] PR, misinformation, and narrative management in the event of leaks or MC&D attention.
R And D Testing $50K/yr
[#11] Recurring prototyping and testing costs related to remote neutralization development and robotic/surgical testing cycles.
Facilities Maintenance $38K/yr
[#1, #9, #10] Locker inspection/maintenance, per-cell operational costs for modified holding cells, imaging suite calibration/maintenance.
Supplies And Consumables $32K/yr
[#2, #13, #14, #24] Glovebox consumables and certification, annual cultivation/sourcing of reagents, PPE single-use consumables, spare/replacement small components.
Training And Drills $30K/yr
[#16] Routine exercises for security, MTF, medical staff and researchers for containment, termination, and ethics compliance.
It Hosting And Audits $20K/yr
[#3] Hosting, encrypted backups, periodic audits and classified database maintenance for Level 4/4864 access infrastructure.
Waste Disposal And Compliance $6K/yr
[#22] Annual regulated incineration/chemical treatment compliance costs and recordkeeping for hazardous bio-waste.
Occupational Health $4K/yr
[#15] Vaccinations, periodic serology, occupational safety monitoring and post-exposure prophylaxis budgets (team-level monitoring).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.1M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with routine testing moratorium observed, scheduled surveillance, and no major incidents.
routine_operations scheduled_testing_moratorium standard_field_surveillance
🚨 Minor Incident $3.2M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
Single field extraction or isolated B manifestation requiring an ad-hoc deployment, extra medical care, and limited legal/redaction work.
single_field_extraction isolated_B_manifestation additional_medical_treatment
🚨 Major Breach $3.9M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$800K vs baseline
Multiple B instances escape or a complex extraction/breach requiring extended MTF deployment, large-scale recapture, legal fallout and subject rehabilitation.
multi_instance_escape extended_MTF_deployment large_rehabilitation_effort
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $3.5M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$400K vs baseline
Decision to resume active R&D and scale up testing (e.g., develop and field focused-ultrasound neutralization) requiring expanded equipment, staffing, and testing budgets.
approved_R&D_scale_up expanded_clinical_trials additional_equipment_procurement
👥 Personnel 13.5 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 1 [#4] Senior researcher with Level 4/4864 clearance; salary included in staff_wages.
Research Technician 2 [#4] Laboratory technicians to run tests and maintain records; salaries included in staff_wages.
Psychologist 1 [#5] Clinical psychologist for monitoring and rehabilitation; salary included in staff_wages.
Medical Officer 0.5 [#5] On-call physician/surgeon (0.5 FTE pro-rated); included in staff_wages.
Security Officer / Guard 6 [#6] Dedicated guard coverage for locker area (rotational staffing); full guard wages included in staff_wages.
Field Intelligence / Agent 3 [#7] Dedicated analyst and field agents for MC&D monitoring and extraction operations; included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Costs are based on analyst ranges and mid-point assumptions; personnel and recurring operational budgets (MTF readiness, contingency, field ops) have high variability. Infrastructure elements are well-specified but incident frequencies and R&D choices introduce uncertainty.
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