SCP-4886 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4886
Expected annual
$10.3M
One-time setup
$38.7M
Annual recurring
$9.9M
Personnel
54
Estimated up-front capital is approximately $38.7M driven primarily by a large contingency reserve, BSL-3 lab buildout, and site fortification/vehicle/equipment purchases. Recurring annual operations run near $9.9M driven by full-time security staffing, research personnel, MTF surge budgets, and cover-story/legal support.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $38.7M
Contingency Reserve $27.5M
[#30] Secure reserve/major contingency fund to cover catastrophic breach, large-scale remediation, mass amnestic operations or regional response (earmarked reserve; midpoint of recommended range).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.5M
[#15, #16] BSL-3 containment laboratory construction/upgrade and laboratory instrumentation/sample storage (sequencers, -80C freezers, microscopes) for initial research and pathology (midpoint estimates).
Facilities $4.3M
[#1, #3, #21, #26, #29] Perimeter fence installation, interior-zone fortified perimeter construction, initial legal/municipal takeover transition costs, initial wastewater/effluent treatment system, and initial ecological recovery campaign costs (midpoint estimates).
Equipment $2.3M
[#7, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, #24, #25] Tactical vehicles fleet, initial surveillance/sensors installation, UAV/drone fleet purchase, initial armament/equipment, PPE kit-out, mobile incinerator purchase, initial secure IT/data infrastructure, and heavy machinery for forest management (midpoint estimates).
Cover Story Initial $88K
[#20] Initial disinformation/legal seed work, document seeding, and cover-story setup (one-time).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $9.9M/yr
Staff Wages $4.5M/yr
[#5, #17] Full-time containment/security staffing (TF He-2/local takeover) and permanent research personnel salaries, benefits and field allowances (midpoint estimates combined).
Cover Story And Legal $1.3M/yr
[#20, #21, #22, #27] Ongoing disinformation/PR, legal takeover ongoing costs, community liaison/compensation programs, and incident-response legal/forensic reserve (midpoint estimates combined).
Mtf Operations $1.2M/yr
[#6] Mobile Task Force surge/deep-cleaning deployments and associated overtime/per-diem/hazard pay/temporary specialists (annual budget midpoint).
Research And Monitoring $1.1M/yr
[#15, #16, #18, #29, #32] BSL-3 lab operating costs, reagents and sequencing/service contracts, veterinary care/reproductive management program, ongoing ecological recovery monitoring, and population census/monitoring programs (midpoint estimates combined).
Aviation Support $350K/yr
[#9] Contracted helicopter/air reconnaissance retainer/standby for rapid response and aerial surveillance (midpoint retainer estimate).
Facilities Maintenance $269K/yr
[#2, #4, #25, #26] Perimeter and interior-zone maintenance/repairs, road/tower upkeep, heavy machinery upkeep/fuel, and wastewater treatment recurring costs (midpoint estimates combined).
Medical Amnestic Program $225K/yr
[#19] Clinic operations, amnestic agents, clinicians and follow-up care under cover trauma therapy (midpoint program estimate).
Armament Consumables $150K/yr
[#12] Consumables for armament and capture systems (darts, nets, ordnance, containment crates) (midpoint estimate).
Training Drills $150K/yr
[#23] Regular joint exercises, drilling, consultant fees and simulated casualty exercises (midpoint estimate).
Logistics And Transport $138K/yr
[#8] Vehicle fuel, maintenance and replacement reserve for patrol and operations (midpoint estimate).
Supplies And Consumables $98K/yr
[#13, #31] PPE replacements/consumables and miscellaneous field consumables (batteries, traps, first aid, small tools) (midpoint estimates combined).
Surveillance Maintenance $90K/yr
[#10] Recurring maintenance, data costs and software/integration for surveillance & sensor network (midpoint estimate).
Incineration Contracts $85K/yr
[#14] Mobile incinerator operating costs, permits, or contracted biohazard removal services (midpoint estimate).
It And Cyber Maintenance $75K/yr
[#24] Secure comms, encrypted servers, offsite backups and IT support for surveillance and research (recurring maintenance midpoint).
Psych Support $75K/yr
[#28] Ongoing mental-health care, resiliency training and retention programs for exposed staff (midpoint estimate).
Drone Maintenance $25K/yr
[#11] UAV/drone battery replacements, repairs and upkeep (midpoint estimate).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $9.9M/yr
80.0% probability / year
Normal year with managed coexistence, regular thinning operations and no major incidents.
routine_thinning scheduled_research no_major_breach
🚨 Minor Incident $10.6M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$750K vs baseline
Localized breach or single deep-cleaning requiring an extra MTF deployment, additional medical/amnestic treatments and PR/legal work.
localized_breach single_mtf_deployment heightened_media_activity
🚨 Major Breach $14.9M/yr
4.5% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Multi-day large-scale containment failure requiring multiple MTF rotations, significant ecological remediation and larger amnestic/legal responses.
widespread_population_surge multi-site_incidents major_public_exposure
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $34.9M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Region-scale ecological collapse or mass breach requiring full contingency activation, cross-regional response and long-term remediation.
catastrophic_containment_failure regional_ecological_collapse mass_public_exposure
👥 Personnel 54 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 45 [#5] Full-time containment and patrol staff (TF He-2 and local-law-enforcement takeover; 24/7 presence estimate).
Research Scientist 9 [#17] Permanent scientific team (ecologists, veterinarians, molecular biologists and technicians).
📋 Confidence Notes
Mid-level confidence: analyst notes provide ranges and operational structure but many estimates are broad and the object's unknown class and ecological uncertainty produce significant upside risk; contingency sizing dominates one-time uncertainty.
← SCP-4885 ↑ All SCPs SCP-4887 →