SCP-4891 — SCP-4891 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-4891 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-4891

Expected annual

$32.2M

One-time setup

$254.4M

Annual recurring

$30.5M

Personnel

152

Initial containment and surge-reserve setup are capital intensive (~$254M one-time) driven by facility construction, reserve funding, and development/stockpiling of an amnestic pesticide; annual operations run tens of millions (~$30.5M/yr) driven by staff wages, stockpile replenishment and logistics.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $254.4M

Contingency Reserve Setup $100.0M

[#27] Initial contingency reserve fund for K‑Class rapid large-scale response (seeded reserve / operational surge fund).

Pharma R And D One Time $50.0M

[#24] Long-term pharmaceutical R&D for definitive cure/prevention (vaccine/barrier development, one-time program capitalization).

Facilities $40.0M

[#1] High-security BSL-4 style secure containment facility (capital construction for lab + quarantine wings; midpoint single-regional facility assumed).

Pesticide Development One Time $20.0M

[#10] One-time R&D/development costs for amnestic-infused pesticide (formulation, trials, delivery development).

Manufacturing Facility Build $15.0M

[#11] Manufacturing line / facility build for producing amnestic pesticide (one-time build).

Community Setup $10.0M

[#30] Setup of community-level monitoring and mass amnestic distribution capability (initial program setup).

Clinical Trials One Time $5.0M

[#23] Clinical/safety trials and controlled studies required for novel amnestic/pesticide (one-time trial costs).

Incinerators $4.0M

[#4] On-site fixed high-capacity incinerator plant and a small set of mobile incinerator units (one-time procurement).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.5M

[#9, #26] Research lab buildout, containment-rated necropsy/pathology equipment and initial instrumentation for entomology/cognitohazard study.

Vehicles Procurement $2.5M

[#16] Field transport and vehicles procurement (armored vans, cargo trucks, drone fleet acquisition).

Communications Procurement $2.0M

[#29] Procurement of deployable quarantine shelters, portable decon tents and checkpoint infrastructure (initial kits/modules).

Hvac Installation $1.8M

[#2] Installation of industrial HVAC / HEPA / chemical filtration and backup power (one-time install portion).

Monitoring Install $800K

[#15] Monitoring and detection system installation (CCTV, sensors, logging, software install).

Production Retainer Fees One Time $500K

[#28] One-time retainer/contract setup fees for prioritized suppliers and manufacturing partners.

Ppe Initial Procurement $400K

[#13] Initial procurement of full-body sealed suits and integrated respirators for staff (~200 suits stock).

Equipment $0

[]

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $30.5M/yr

Staff Wages $14.5M/yr

[#6, #7, #8, #9] Salaries for security, hazmat/field containment teams, medical clinicians/techs, and research staff (regional program staffing).

Manufacturing Stockpile Replenishment $3.0M/yr

[#11] Annual production and stockpile maintenance/turnover for amnestic pesticide and related active ingredients.

Supplies And Consumables $2.5M/yr

[#12, #14] PPE replacement, filters, disinfectants, routine drug dose turnover and general lab consumables (baseline annual consumption/stock rotation).

Logistics And Transport $2.0M/yr

[#16, #17, #28] Vehicle operation/lease/fuel, small-scale aerial/drone ops for surveillance, standing logistics contracts for prioritized delivery.

Contingency Reserve Maintenance $2.0M/yr

[#27] Annual costs to maintain/insure/liquid-premium a large contingency reserve (administration, liquidity costs).

Supply Chain Contracts $2.0M/yr

[#28] Standing supplier agreements and prioritized delivery contracts to guarantee rapid resupply under crisis.

Facilities Maintenance $1.4M/yr

[#2, #3, #15] HVAC/filtration maintenance and testing, continuous energy costs for negative-pressure and incinerators, monitoring system operations.

Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr

[#9, #15, #25] Ongoing research project budgets, field surveillance analytics, training program operation and programmatic monitoring costs.

Cover Story And Legal $500K/yr

[#21] Ongoing legal, public relations and covert information-control budget for localized incidents and litigation defense.

Forensics Lab Operating Costs $500K/yr

[#26] Forensics, necropsy throughput and specialized sample disposal (annual lab operational budget).

Training And Psych Support $400K/yr

[#25] Recurrent training programs, drills and psychological counseling for staff (annual operating cost).

Per Burn Operational Cost $200K/yr

[#5] Per-burn operational costs (fuel, operator, PPE, ash/hazard handling) averaged across expected annual nest/burn events.

Communications Maintenance And Deployment $200K/yr

[#29] Maintenance and periodic deployment costs for quarantine modules, shelters and decon kits.

Aerial Deployment Budget $100K/yr

[#17] Small annual budget for limited aerial sorties/drone operations; city-scale releases treated as incident events.

Mass Euthanasia Annual $0/yr

[#18] Mass euthanasia costs are per-incident (baseline year assumed none).

Body Disposal Annual $0/yr

[#19] Large-scale body disposal/cremation is per-incident (baseline year assumed routine/none).

Environmental Remediation Annual $0/yr

[#20] Major environmental remediation is incident-driven; baseline reserve is zero for routine year.

Community Ops Annual $0/yr

[#30] Large-scale community operations are event-driven; baseline year assumes no city-wide deployment.

Infrastructure Replacement Annual $0/yr

[#31] Replacement of public infrastructure after eradication is incident-specific (no baseline annual draw assumed).

Compensation And Relocation Estimate $0/yr

[#22] Compensation and relocation are per-incident (baseline year assumed none).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $30.5M/yr

91.0% probability / year

Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine containment, research, stockpile maintenance and limited field activity.

no_major_outbreaks routine_nest_removals regular_research_activity

🚨 Minor Incident $32.5M/yr

8.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline

Localized outbreak requiring multiple nest eradications, increased incinerator use, limited aerial/drone pesticide deployment, and modest PR/legal response.

localized_quarantine multiple_nest_incinerations increased_legal_pr_activity

🚨 K Class Outbreak $180.5M/yr

1.0% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline

City- or multi-city scale outbreak requiring large-scale amnestic pesticide release, mass sedation/euthanasia, infrastructure replacement and heavy contingency reserve drawdown.

widespread_infection mass_aerial_deployment mass_euthanasia_and_disposal

👥 Personnel 152 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	80	[#6] 24/7 armed guard staffing for facility and perimeter checkpoints (regional program staffing estimate).
Hazmat / Field containment teams	24	[#7] Trained operatives for nest eradication, mobile incinerator operation and field sedation.
Medical Officer / Clinical staff	15	[#8] Anesthesiologists, critical care clinicians and med techs for sedation, amnestic administration and casualty care.
Research Scientist	12	[#9] Entomologists, cognitive scientists and chemists conducting ongoing investigation and development work.
Engineer / Maintenance	6	[#2, #16] HVAC, incinerator and vehicle maintenance personnel.
Administrative Staff	8	[#21, #28] Administrative, procurement and legal liaisons supporting operations, contracts and cover-story logistics.
Site Director / Executive Staff	1	[#1] Senior site/response leadership and incident command.
Logistics / Drivers	6	[#16, #17] Vehicle/drone operators and logistics specialists for transport and aerial deployment support.

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst notes provide ranges for most line items and clear operational requirements, allowing order-of-magnitude estimates; uncertainty remains in incident frequency, scale of stockpiles required, and contingency reserve policy, so medium confidence is assigned.

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