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SCP-4909 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-4909
Expected annual
$12.1M
One-time setup
$25.1M
Annual recurring
$11.9M
Personnel
89
Initial containment and research startup is capital-intensive (~$25M one-time in this estimate) driven by vessel/robotic acquisition and contingency reserves; recurring annual operations are dominated by vessel operations, onshore staff, and AUV/ROV/monitoring costs (~$11.9M/year).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $25.1M
Equipment $11.7M
[#2, #3, #4, #8, #11, #13, #23] Ship retrofit, AUV/ROV acquisition, perimeter buoys, secure storage hardware, non-lethal deck hardware, non-invasive imaging instrumentation, and training simulators.
Contingency Reserve $5.0M
[#22] Recommended long-term contingency/disaster reserve fund (one-time capitalization).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.9M
[#6, #7, #14, #21] Onshore data/storage infrastructure, chemical/biological/marine lab fit-out, gas sensors/monitoring moorings, and initial R&D campaign/mitigation research.
Facilities $3.0M
[#9, #24] Offshore lab retrofit/leaseback and shore-side hyperbaric/quarantine facility buildout and structural/site work.
Legal One Time $250K
[#17] One-off major payments, permits or large cover-story buyouts as-needed.
Population Processing Initial $250K
[#15] Initial one-time processing/setup costs for handling retrieved inhabitants.
Manned Dsv Purchase $0
[#12] Purchase not selected in baseline estimate (charter/readiness preferred); set to $0 one-time.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $11.9M/yr
Patrol Vessels Operation $3.0M/yr
[#1] Two dedicated ocean-going patrol/research vessels: crewing, slow-steaming fuel for station-keeping, routine maintenance, port calls and insurance-equivalent.
Staff Wages $2.5M/yr
[#6, #7, #9, #16] Onshore analyst, research, medical, security and technician wages (does not include ship crew salaries covered under patrol vessels).
Auv Operations $1.0M/yr
[#3] Operations, maintenance, spare batteries and deployment costs for AUV/ROV fleet.
Population Welfare And Resettlement $1.0M/yr
[#15] Recurring budget for monitoring, clandestine welfare checks, humanitarian contingencies and resettlement for retrieved inhabitants.
Supplies And Consumables $600K/yr
[#7, #8, #10, #21] Lab reagents, consumables, sample handling expendables, and program-level recurring costs for rehabilitation/treatment.
Facilities Maintenance $500K/yr
[#8, #24] Maintenance and lease/operation of offshore lab/quarantine facilities and secure sample storage upkeep.
Research And Monitoring $500K/yr
[#6, #13, #14, #21] Ongoing data processing, modeling, advanced-analysis for SCP-4909-3, gas/atmospheric monitoring sampling and interpretation work.
Civilian Incident Response Reserve $500K/yr
[#18] Annual incident-response/suppression reserve for civilian vessel interactions and evidence management.
Research Scaling And Security $500K/yr
[#21] Ongoing scaling, secure synthesis attempts, containment chemistry and associated security for any promising SCP-4909-2 research.
Logistics And Transport $300K/yr
[#16, #19] Routine personnel transfers, long-range tenders, travel and senior-level expedition time/travel overhead.
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
[#17] Ongoing legal/diplomatic/cooperation expenses to maintain the volcanic-vent cover story and periodic local coordination.
Dsv Training Readiness $300K/yr
[#12] Ongoing dive/crew training, medical readiness and life-support spares for potential manned DSV operations.
Dsv Charter Reserve $200K/yr
[#12] Budget reserve for occasional charter days for crewed submersible operations (baseline usage estimate).
Perimeter Buoy Servicing $150K/yr
[#4] Periodic servicing, anchor/mooring checks and bandwidth for moored perimeter buoys.
Red Team Counterintelligence $150K/yr
[#20] Ongoing counter-surveillance, OPSEC, AIS monitoring, and internal leak mitigation costs.
Administrative Overhead $150K/yr
[#25] Classified documentation handling, clearance bureaucracy and administrative compliance costs.
Satellite And Comms $100K/yr
[#5] High-bandwidth secure satellite and secondary comms redundancy (VSAT/Iridium/etc.).
Non Lethal Maintenance $75K/yr
[#11] Maintenance and spare parts for deck-mounted non-lethal deterrents and ROV disabling tools.
Training Recurring $50K/yr
[#23] Recurring personnel safety training, regular drills, and simulator upkeep.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $11.9M/yr
89.0% probability / year
Normal year with ongoing operations, no major incidents or public exposures.
routine operations scheduled research deployments no civilian exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $12.1M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$250K vs baseline
Localized equipment loss or single-person medical evacuation and limited sample loss; small emergency response.
ROV/AUV loss or repair single severe medical case small-scale civilian encounter
🚨 Major Breach $16.9M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure: loss/damage to a patrol vessel or large-scale exposure requiring ship replacement, major medevac and diplomatic expenditure.
vessel loss/damage multiple injuries/exposures substantial evidence suppression operations
🚨 Political Exposure $26.9M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Public/diplomatic exposure requiring extensive legal payouts, bribery/PR buyouts, and international containment escalation.
verified civilian/public exposure foreign government intervention major international incident
👥 Personnel 89 total
Role Count Notes
Ship Crew / Mariners 50 [#1] Two patrol vessels with ~20–30 crew each; includes captains, officers, engineers, deckhands and cooks.
Research Scientist / Technician 6 [#7, #13] Chemists, pharmacologists, marine biologists and lab technicians supporting ongoing research.
Data Analyst / Sensor Operator 8 [#6] Analysts for 24/7 monitoring of video, sonar and sensor streams (6–12 FTE range; mid-sized estimate).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#16] Armed security teams for ships and onshore labs, MTF rotation and clearance oversight (8–16 FTEs range).
Engineer / ROV Pilot / Maintenance 6 [#3, #11] ROV/AUV pilots, maintenance staff and vessel engineers.
Medical Officer 3 [#9] Medical staff trained for diving injuries, exposure treatment and medevac coordination.
Administrative Staff 3 [#25] Administrative overhead, documentation control and clearance processing.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#16] Senior oversight, Level-4 sign-off and expedition approvals.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide ranges for nearly every major line item but many items (vessel operations, ROV fleet size, contingency needs, DSV purchase decision) are optional or variable, producing moderate uncertainty in totals.
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