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SCP-4944 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4944
Expected annual
$2.4M
One-time setup
$44.1M
Annual recurring
$2.3M
Personnel
14
One-time setup is large (~$44.09M) driven by constructing a sealed dry‑dock footprint, land, drainage and monitoring equipment; recurring costs are modest by comparison (~$2.32M/yr) dominated by security, research, utilities and insurance/reserve replenishment.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $44.1M
Facilities $42.0M
[#1, #2, #3, #4, #16, #17, #24] Containment chamber construction, land/site prep, drainage installation, HVAC installation, environmental protection setup, structural/vibration reinforcement, decommissioning contingency fund included.
Insurance Reserve Setup $1.0M
[#22] One-time establishment of catastrophic/contingency reserve fund.
Equipment $808K
[#5, #8, #10, #11, #13, #18, #23] Power infrastructure hardware, automated delivery system, chemical/caffeine sensors, monitoring suite hardware (microphones/LIDAR/CCTV), audio instrumentation upgrades, vehicle purchases, archival infrastructure.
Cover Story Initial Setup $200K
[#21] One-time cover/PR/legal initial setup costs (fake registrations, initial retainer, local measures).
Sop And Training Setup $30K
[#15] One-time development of SOPs, initial training program and clearance processing setup.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.3M/yr
Staff Wages $1.1M/yr
[#6, #7] Security staffing (24/7 guards, benefits/OT) and operational caffeine-delivery technicians (1–2 FTE).
Research And Monitoring $600K/yr
[#11, #12, #19, #20] Monitoring maintenance & storage, data storage/compute, ongoing research program budget, per-test allocations for approved experiments.
Facilities Maintenance $320K/yr
[#3, #4, #5, #16, #17, #25] Drainage maintenance, HVAC energy & maintenance, power/electricity & fuel, environmental contingency & drills, structural inspections, routine building maintenance and consumables.
Insurance Reserve Replenishment $200K/yr
[#22] Annual replenishment contribution to the catastrophic/contingency reserve.
Cover Story And Legal $65K/yr
[#21, #23] Ongoing legal/cover operations retainer, PR, and archival administration/suppression costs.
Logistics And Transport $20K/yr
[#18] Vehicle fuel, maintenance and fleet operating costs (supporting technicians/logistics).
Supplies And Consumables $20K/yr
[#9, #10, #14] Consumable caffeinated fluid and sterile storage, sensor calibration/consumables, hearing PPE and audiogram program consumables.
Training And Clearance Renewals $10K/yr
[#15] Annual refresher training, clearance renewals and recurring background check costs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.3M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, no significant incidents.
regular deliveries scheduled maintenance routine research activity
🚨 Minor Incident $2.4M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$50K vs baseline
Small spill, sensor failure, or localized environmental contamination requiring cleanup and overtime.
small caffeine/seepage spill sensor/calibration failure
🚨 Major Breach $3.8M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Significant structural failure, large environmental release, or public exposure requiring major remediation, repairs and PR/legal response.
structural/vibration damage public exposure/leak
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $7.3M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Catastrophic containment failure requiring full site rebuild, large-scale remediation, major legal liability and long-term reserve drawdown.
site-wide structural collapse extensive public exposure
👥 Personnel 14 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#6] 24/7 coverage estimated (8–16 guards); budgeted as ~12 personnel including benefits and overtime.
Technician / Delivery Technician 2 [#7] 1–2 FTE for caffeine preparation/delivery and routine servicing; budget assumes 2 technicians.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges allowing midpoint estimates, but many items have wide ranges and contingent decisions (e.g., whether to build full dry‑dock vs minimal lab containment) so uncertainty remains.
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