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SCP-4952 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4952
Expected annual
$607K
One-time setup
$1.5M
Annual recurring
$599K
Personnel
5
Initial capital outlay is moderate (roughly $1.5M) driven by land purchase, fencing, field station and contingency funds; recurring annual costs are dominated by staff wages and monitoring (~$599k/yr). Major remediation events can raise single-year costs into the hundreds of thousands or millions.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.5M
Facilities $881K
[#1, #3, #4, #8, #14] Land purchase, perimeter fencing/vehicle barriers, initial no-trespassing signage, small on-site field station/trailer build-out/installation, and structural gating/sealing hardware/installation. Estimates use mid-range values for acreage/site finish and moderate gating complexity.
Emergency Remediation Contingency $200K
[#13] One-time contingency reserve for emergency stabilization/remediation (shoring, grouting, small collapse response). Mid-range reserve chosen within large possible range.
Equipment $155K
[#5, #6, #7, #10, #19] On-site surveillance hardware, off-grid power system (solar/batteries/generator), communications hardware/setup, operational vehicle(s), and initial medical/emergency equipment. Mid-range capital estimates used.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $105K
[#11, #15] Scientific monitoring instruments (geotechnical sensors, seismographs, data loggers) and initial secure server/storage and analysis setup for research data.
Decommissioning And Site Restoration $100K
[#25] Budget for eventual removal of infrastructure and environmental/site restoration if containment ends or site must be returned to public use (moderate estimate).
Legal And Title Due Diligence $41K
[#2, #21] Site survey, title search, environmental baseline assessment and initial permit/legal costs associated with land purchase and early compliance/coordination.
Initial Geotechnical Study $30K
[#12] Initial detailed geotechnical and engineering survey/consulting to assess tunnel/sinkhole stability.
Archival Initial $10K
[#24] Initial costs for long-term archival setup, secure storage or climate-controlled space for physical samples/artifacts.
Cover Story Initial $5K
[#20] Initial cover/opacity messaging and public-relations materials to explain closures or restrict access.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $599K/yr
Staff Wages $430K/yr
[#9, #16] Security personnel (rotational guards covering site) and dedicated research staff (geologists/engineers/field scientists). Includes salaries, benefits, training and expected overtime/travel for security.
Cover Story And Legal $35K/yr
[#20, #21] Ongoing cover/PR costs and legal/compliance/permitting coordination with state/NPS authorities; includes occasional interagency coordination expenses.
Incident Response Mobilization $30K/yr
[#23] Reserve for rapid-response mobilization, standby costs, overtime and per-incident mobilization expenses.
Research And Monitoring $28K/yr
[#11, #12, #15] Recurring data management, sensor maintenance, periodic geotechnical inspections and records management/software licenses/analyst time.
Supplies And Consumables $23K/yr
[#17, #5, #6, #19] Field consumables, PPE and maintenance supplies, sensor upkeep/repairs, and battery/fuel replacement for off-grid power; includes recurring small equipment/training replacements.
Insurance And Indemnity $20K/yr
[#22] Liability, vehicle and contractor insurance premiums or captive insurance accounting to mask/cover activities.
Facilities Maintenance $14K/yr
[#4, #8, #18] Ongoing signage replacement/maintenance, field station utilities/upkeep, and seasonal site maintenance (snow removal, vegetation control).
Logistics And Transport $8K/yr
[#10] Vehicle fuel, maintenance and licensing/insurance per operational vehicle used for access, patrols and emergency response.
Communications And Bandwidth $6K/yr
[#7] Recurring satellite/cellular bandwidth and comms service fees for continuous video/sensor backhaul.
Archival And Storage $5K/yr
[#24] Ongoing storage, cataloging and controlled-access administration for physical samples and long-term data retention.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $599K/yr
94.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, maintenance and no major incidents.
no_unexpected_sinkhole_growth routine_maintenance_and_monitoring
🚨 Minor Incident $659K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$60K vs baseline
Small stabilization or targeted remediation required following localized sinkhole movement or minor collapse.
localized_sinkhole_movement small_collapse_requiring_shoring
🚨 Major Remediation $1.1M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Significant engineering remediation or sealing of tunnel/road realignment due to accelerated collapse or safety risk.
accelerated_sinkhole_growth structural_tunnel_collapse
👥 Personnel 5 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 2 [#9] Two rotational guards covering patrols, rapid response and site checks; staffing and overtime included in security payroll estimate.
Research Scientist 3 [#16] Small team of geologists/engineers/field scientists (2–4 FTE assumed; 3 FTE used here) responsible for monitoring, analysis and advising containment.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items are well-described (land purchase, fencing, sensors, staff), so recurring estimates are relatively well-constrained; however large uncertainty remains around contingency/remediation (very wide cost range) and site-specific land price, so overall confidence is medium.
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