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SCP-4967 Thaumiel ~ medium confidence
SCP-4967
Expected annual
$2.4M
One-time setup
$6.3M
Annual recurring
$2.3M
Personnel
12
Up-front capital (hardware, vessels, ROV, casket, control center) driven by engineered equipment and contingency reserves (~$6.3M one-time), while annual staffing, contracted cooperation, research and legal/cover costs drive recurring costs (~$2.33M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $6.3M
Escalation Reserve Major Failure $3.0M
[#28] Large escalation/reserve for major failure, removal attempt, or extensive remediation.
Equipment $1.4M
[#3, #5, #6, #7, #13, #17, #20] Radiation monitoring hardware, ROV/submersible systems, vessel purchase, lead-lined casket, secure servers, vehicle purchases, and custom sensors.
Contingency Reserve Insurance And Emergency $1.0M
[#15] Contingency reserve recommended for unexpected cleanup, injuries, or reclamation (note 15).
Legal Incident Response Reserve $500K
[#14] Incident response legal/PR reserve for large responses and high-cost FOIA/PR actions.
Facilities $135K
[#4, #21] Secure remote operations/control center setup and underwater cabling/power installation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $125K
[#12, #27] Initial forensic/anomalous-focused study and dedicated archival/legal record retention system setup.
Emergency Encasement Kit $50K
[#8] Pre-staged rapid-response encasement kit and staging equipment build.
Permitting And Initial Environmental Assessment $50K
[#11] Initial environmental assessment and permitting costs.
Lead Handling And Disposal One Time $50K
[#19] Initial compliance/programming and eventual disposal reserve for lead-lined casket (one-time components).
Secure Storage Setup $25K
[#18] Secure dry storage setup for casket and heavy gear.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.3M/yr
Staff Wages $940K/yr
[#1] Salaries, benefits, training, and overhead for embedded Department of Reclamation team (2 field scientists, 2 technicians/ROV operators, 2 divers, 4 security/liaison, manager, admin).
Research And Monitoring $375K/yr
[#10, #12, #20, #25] Quarterly bathymetric/sonar surveys, ongoing forensic/anomalous research budget, sensor recalibration/crosschecks, and long-term archival/anomalous research fund.
Contracted Department Cooperation $300K/yr
[#2] Payments/grants to Department of Reclamation to secure cooperation, inspections by agency employees, and restricted-access facilitation.
Cover Story And Legal $250K/yr
[#14, #26] Legal/cover-up baseline, FOIA defense and public relations plus community mitigation/compensation funds.
Logistics And Transport $115K/yr
[#6, #9, #17] Annual vessel maintenance/fuel and operations, annual encasement drill costs (barge time, overtime), and vehicle operating costs.
Insurance And Liability Premiums $100K/yr
[#15] Insurance and indemnity premiums for diving/boating operations and liability coverage.
Facilities Maintenance $50K/yr
[#4, #13, #21] Control room utilities/IT maintenance, secure data archive storage/maintenance, and cabling/bandwidth upkeep.
Incident Response Retainer $50K/yr
[#22] Retainer for salvage firms, deep-water welding/anchoring, and hazmat teams for rapid mobilization.
Supplies And Consumables $30K/yr
[#24] Batteries, ROV spare parts, dive gas fills, welding supplies, seals and other routine consumables.
Environmental Monitoring And Compliance $30K/yr
[#11] Routine water testing, compliance monitoring, and small-scale remediation planning.
Training And Ppe $25K/yr
[#16] Diver refresher training, certifications, radiation-aware dive protocols, PPE replacement and medical monitoring.
Radiation Monitoring Maintenance $15K/yr
[#3] Replacement/repair and maintenance for continuous radiation monitoring array nodes.
Media Hardened Security $10K/yr
[#23] Buoys, signage, temporary exclusion zones and liaison costs for closures and plausible official reasons.
Encasement Readiness And Inspections $10K/yr
[#8] Annual inspections and readiness drills for emergency encasement kits and staging.
Lead Compliance Retainer $10K/yr
[#19] Contractor retainer for lead-handling compliance and monitoring.
Archive And Record Retention $10K/yr
[#27] Long-term legal record retention, chain-of-custody storage and indexing.
Storage Rent And Maintenance $8K/yr
[#18] Rent/maintenance for secure storage of casket, tooling, and spare parts.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.3M/yr
92.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, maintenance, scheduled drills, and no major incidents.
no breaches routine maintenance annual drills
🚨 Minor Incident $2.5M/yr
7.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Localized threshold excursion requiring emergency encasement deployment, limited mobilization, legal/PR response, and short-term remediation.
threshold breach encasement deployment minor contamination
🚨 Major Breach $4.8M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or environmental contamination requiring large-scale remediation, contractor mobilization, litigation, and possible covert relocation.
encasement failure widespread contamination large-scale recovery
👥 Personnel 12 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Field Scientist 2 [#1] Remote sensing/pathology specialists embedded with Department of Reclamation.
Field Technician / ROV Operator 2 [#1] ROV operation and maintenance, sensor deployment.
Certified Diver 2 [#1] Specialized diving personnel for inspections and encasement tasks.
Security Officer / Liaison 4 [#1] Local security, liaison with Department of Reclamation and seasonal site control.
Manager / Site Lead 1 [#1] Program manager and administrative oversight.
Administrative Staff 1 [#1] Admin support, scheduling, and cover paperwork.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, but wide ranges for contingency, reserves and contractor mobilization create uncertainty in exact capital/reserve sizing.
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