SCP-5099 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-5099
Expected annual
$34.2M
One-time setup
$168.7M
Annual recurring
$32.0M
Personnel
115
One-time capital costs for extraction and containment are estimated at roughly $169 million driven by heavy excavation, reinforced vault construction and contingency; recurring annual operations are ~ $31.3 million driven by staff payroll, fuel/logistics and long-term monitoring/consumables.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $168.7M
Facilities $72.5M
[#1, #4] Site construction/perimeter upgrades and reinforced vault/hangar buildout to accommodate a 120+m object; combined midpoint of provided ranges for remote Siberian construction and vault engineering.
Heavy Earthmoving $35.0M
[#2] Mass excavation and overburden removal (midpoint of $10M–$60M), remote-location & winter premium included in midpoint.
Contingency Fund Set Aside $27.5M
[#25] Contingency reserve (20–50% guidance; midpoint of $5M–$50M suggested for major extraction program).
Crane Purchase $14.0M
[#3] Purchase option for multiple high-capacity cranes/rigging (midpoint of $3M–$25M). Rental treated as recurring cost.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.3M
[#9, #10, #21] Secure analytical laboratory instrumentation and installation, initial specialized sample-handling equipment (gloveboxes/vacuum chambers) and initial archival/curation infrastructure (midpoint estimates).
Power Setup $3.0M
[#7] Diesel generator farm, fuel storage and winterization (setup midpoint).
Airlift Initial $2.8M
[#8] Initial charter/purchase or mobilization of heavy-lift air/rail transport for mobilization (midpoint).
Spoil Disposal One Time $2.8M
[#24] One-time/staged transport and disposal infrastructure for spoil and contaminated waste (midpoint).
Equipment $2.0M
[#5, #11] Specialized cutting/separation tooling (diamond wire saws, HEPA rigs) and custom clean/shock/RF-shielded transport containers (midpoint estimates).
Environmental One Time $1.6M
[#17] Initial environmental compliance, remediation planning, permits and local compensations (midpoint of $100k–$3M).
Cover Story Initial $1.1M
[#18] Initial PR/cover operations (Patom Crater Conference, fake publications) to seed geological/gas narrative (midpoint).
Geotechnical Installation $875K
[#6] Installation of 3D GPR, seismic array, borehole cameras and sensors (installation midpoint).
It Initial $700K
[#16] Hardened servers, encrypted satellite links and secure telemetry installation (initial midpoint).
Medical Setup $625K
[#14] On-site medical clinic, quarantine/decon buildout (midpoint of $250k–$1M).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $32.0M/yr
Staff Wages $12.0M/yr
[#12] Long-term site staffing payroll and benefits for sustained excavation/containment (midpoint of $6M–$18M).
Crane Rental $4.0M/yr
[#3] Recurring option if cranes/rigging are rented rather than purchased (annual rental midpoint assumption).
Logistics And Transport $3.0M/yr
[#7, #8, #24] Ongoing fuel & transport logistics, airlift charters and spoil transport during active excavation (midpoint annual figures).
Power Fuel And Logistics $3.0M/yr
[#7] Ongoing diesel fuel, delivered winterized fuel and generator operations during active excavation (midpoint).
Spoil Disposal Recurring $1.5M/yr
[#24] Ongoing staged transport/disposal costs during active excavation (annualized midpoint).
Long Term Monitoring $1.1M/yr
[#26] Post-extraction seasonal monitoring, maintenance and intermittent research visits (midpoint $300k–$2M/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $1.1M/yr
[#22] Consumables & spare parts (filters, diamond-wire consumables, hydraulic fluids, PPE) — ongoing midpoint.
Medical Medevac Contract $875K/yr
[#14] Medevac contract and emergency medical support (midpoint $250k–$1.5M/yr).
Relocation And Rotation $850K/yr
[#28] Rotational deployment travel, hardship allowances and family support for retention (midpoint).
Legal Diplomatic $800K/yr
[#19] Legal teams, diplomatic cover/diversions and contingency legal expenses (midpoint $100k–$1.5M/yr).
Airlift Ongoing $600K/yr
[#8] Ongoing heavy-lift charters/transport for intermittent needs (midpoint $200k–$1M/yr).
Research And Monitoring $575K/yr
[#20] Fragment inscription analysis, translation research and ongoing research team costs (midpoint).
Insurance And Indemnities $550K/yr
[#29] Contractor insurance underwriting, indemnities and bespoke policies (midpoint).
Research Endowment $550K/yr
[#30] Long-term pseudo-science grants, seeded positions and conferences to sustain cover narrative (midpoint).
External Analysis Campaigns $275K/yr
[#23] Periodic external facility access (synchrotron, national labs) per campaign — assumed ~1 campaign/year at midpoint $50k–$500k.
Training And Drills $225K/yr
[#27] Regular training, breach drills and clearance rotations (midpoint).
Cover Story And Legal $175K/yr
[#18] Ongoing cover-story maintenance, seeded publications and outreach to support deception narrative (midpoint).
Personnel Psych Support $175K/yr
[#15] Psychological screening, counseling and memetic-hazard monitoring (midpoint $50k–$300k/yr).
It Operations $175K/yr
[#16] Secure comms bandwidth, server operations and cyber-secure maintenance (midpoint $50k–$300k/yr).
Environmental Recurring $150K/yr
[#17] Ongoing environmental monitoring, remediation payments and small local fees (annual ongoing).
Geotech Monitoring $125K/yr
[#6] Continuous monitoring upkeep and telemetry for GPR/seismic/inclinometers (midpoint $50k–$200k/yr).
Sample Handling Consumables $110K/yr
[#10] Inert gas, cryogens and consumables for gloveboxes/vacuum systems (midpoint $20k–$200k/yr).
Archival Maintenance $85K/yr
[#21] Climate control, digitization and redundant backups maintenance (midpoint $20k–$150k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $32.0M/yr
82.0% probability / year
Normal year of operation with no major incidents; ongoing excavation/containment and research continue at expected staffing and maintenance levels.
steady excavation operations routine maintenance scheduled research campaigns
🚨 Minor Incident $36.3M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$4.2M vs baseline
Localized structural failure, equipment collapse, small activation event or significant equipment failure requiring emergency contracting and partial contingency draw.
equipment failure localized collapse small activation requiring containment response
🚨 Major Breach $81.3M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$49.2M vs baseline
Significant containment breach or memetic contagion with international exposure requiring full emergency response, large-scale reconstruction, legal/diplomatic payments and extended PR/cover operations.
containment breach mass memetic/influence incident international discovery/exposure
👥 Personnel 115 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 30 [#12, #13] 24/7 perimeter and rapid-response teams; headcount supports rotations and hardship deployments.
Heavy Equipment Operator 20 [#2, #3, #8] Operators for excavators, cranes and transport; includes specialists for winter/remote ops.
Research Scientist 25 [#9, #20] Xenohistory, materials, isotope and inscription analysis teams conducting on-site research.
Geologist / Field Specialist 8 [#6, #2] Geotechnical and subsurface specialists operating GPR/seismic arrays and advising excavation.
Materials Scientist / Xenohistorian 6 [#9, #20] Specialists handling fragment analysis, inscriptions and preservation.
Engineer / Maintenance 10 [#7, #16] Mechanical and electrical engineers for generators, cranes, site systems and IT/communications support.
Medical Officer 3 [#14] On-site medics and emergency response liaison; augmented by medevac contract.
IT / Communications 3 [#16] Secure comms, telemetry and cyber operations staff.
Administrative Staff 5 [#12, #17, #19] Admin, HR, local liaison and permit handling for remote project.
Logistics / Transport Crew 5 [#8, #24] Drivers, riggers, airlift coordination and spoil/disposal logistics staff.
📋 Confidence Notes
Midpoint-based estimates use ranges provided in analyst notes; large ranges for excavation, vault construction and contingency drive uncertainty. Recurring staffing and fuel costs are better constrained but extraction method (mechanical vs blasting), rental vs purchase choices, and campaign frequency for external analysis introduce significant variance.
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