SCP-5140 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-5140
Expected annual
$7.7M
One-time setup
$15.2M
Annual recurring
$7.5M
Personnel
29
One-time capital and R&D (lab, sensors, robotics, contingency design) are estimated at ~$14.9M; recurring operations (expeditions, specialized MTF wages, local compensation, monitoring, and research) run about $7.5M/year, driven mainly by expedition logistics, personnel, and local payments/lobbying.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $15.2M
Extraction Campaign Capital $10.0M
[#30] One-time lower-bound capital estimate for a full extraction/removal campaign (>100 corpses): heavy-lift, engineering camps, diplomacy; deliberately large and prohibitive per analyst note.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.7M
[#12, #13] Capital to establish cold-safe containment/autopsy/forensics lab and initial pilot research instrumentation and startup experiments.
Contingency Reserve Initial $1.0M
[#23] Initial contingency / indemnity reserve fund for catastrophic events, legal exposure, and large-scale equipment loss.
Equipment $900K
[#4, #7, #9, #10, #11] Consolidated initial procurement for high-altitude field equipment (tents, oxygen bottles/regulators), cold-rated drones, PPE R&D prototypes, robotic handling units (initial deployable units), and on-site medical/hypoxia gear.
Disposal R And D $500K
[#14] R&D and field trials for long-term disposal/sterilization strategies (deep burial engineering, encapsulation trials) capital costs.
Sensor Network Install $400K
[#5] Initial purchase and installation of a 20–50 node cold-rated remote sensor network (seismic/optical/radar nodes, power, satellite uplinks, anchors).
Contingency Design $300K
[#25] Preliminary design and planning for contingency extraction/extermination options (drilling, entombment, controlled demolition protocols).
Avalanche Mitigation Install $250K
[#15] Installation costs for snow fences, anchored nets, berms and structural mitigation on exposed slopes.
Training Initial $150K
[#24] Initial high-altitude and anomaly-handling certification and group training for MTF and local contractors.
Facilities $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $7.5M/yr
Staff Wages $1.0M/yr
[#2] Salaries, hazard pay, and operational prorated costs for specialized MTF roster (mountaineering-capable teams, medics, comms techs).
Research And Monitoring $1.0M/yr
[#12, #13, #22] Ongoing lab staffing, experiments (biology, entropic testing, thaw dynamics), and core analyst time for mapping/prediction models.
Logistics And Transport $1.0M/yr
[#1] Specialized Everest expedition logistics: international/domestic flights, basecamp support, food/fuel, bottled oxygen, permits, fixed lines and expedition resupply (assumes ~2 campaigns/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $800K/yr
[#16, #18] Public relations, disinformation, permit-restriction lobbying, legal counsel, sealed records, and covert procurement/cover narratives.
Local Compensation $500K/yr
[#17] Ongoing payments/compensation to local officials, villages, and tourism stakeholders to secure secrecy and compliance.
Insurance Reserve Contribution $500K/yr
[#23] Annual contribution to replenish contingency/indemnity reserves for lawsuits, major loss, or public exposure.
Sherpa Contracts $400K/yr
[#3] Contracting, insurance, compensation, and local liabilities for Sherpas/porters and local cooperation across expeditions.
Cultural Programs $300K/yr
[#27] Funding alternate livelihoods, memorialization, and grants to mitigate suspicion among climbing communities.
Supplies And Consumables $200K/yr
[#4, #28, #11, #9] Annual replacement of high-altitude equipment (oxygen bottles, regulators), small consumables, medical consumables, PPE replacements and spare parts.
Rescue Retainer $200K/yr
[#8] Medevac/helicopter retainer, medevac insurance and standby rescue capacity; per-mission costs extra.
Family Compensation $200K/yr
[#19] Hush settlements, relocation assistance and sensitive-death handling fund allocations.
Intel Monitoring $200K/yr
[#20] Human intelligence, informants, forum/social monitoring, and rapid-response to independent climber activity or leaks.
Sensor Maintenance $150K/yr
[#5] Seasonal servicing, replacement and maintenance of the remote sensor network.
Satellite Subscription $150K/yr
[#6] Tasking and data purchase for high-res optical, SAR, thermal imagery and analyst time for scheduled monitoring.
Energy Supply $150K/yr
[#21] Fuel logistics for camps, diesel generators at base, cold-rated solar arrays and battery replacements for sensors and camp power.
Training Refresher $150K/yr
[#24] Annual refresher courses: avalanche rescue, hypoxia management, robotic operation, and media-safety training.
Administrative Overhead $150K/yr
[#26] Secure comms, encrypted channels, travel security, document control, and internal oversight costs.
Drone Operations $100K/yr
[#7] Cold-rated drone operations, pilot training, spares and routine aerial survey missions.
Data Storage $100K/yr
[#22] Secure geo-databases, GIS processing, secure cloud storage and hourly processing costs.
Robotic Maintenance $75K/yr
[#10] Maintenance and spare parts for tele-operated remote manipulators and robotic handling units.
Personnel Support $75K/yr
[#29] Psychological support, PTSD care, recruitment and replacement pipelines for high-stress personnel.
Disposal Maintenance $50K/yr
[#14] Maintenance, follow-up field trials and incremental implementation costs for disposal/sterilization solutions.
Avalanche Maintenance $30K/yr
[#15] Repair and upkeep of snow fences, anchors, and erosion mitigation structures.
Medical Maintenance $20K/yr
[#11] Consumables and upkeep for portable hyperbaric, oxygen concentrators and high-alt medical gear.
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $7.5M/yr
84.5% probability / year
Normal year with scheduled burial expeditions, routine monitoring, and no major incidents.
scheduled_expeditions seasonal_monitoring no_major_exposure_events
🚨 Minor Incident $7.8M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Localized exposure or operational accident requiring extra extractions, medical evacuations, and legal payments.
single_breach one or two medevacs small legal/compensation payouts
🚨 Major Breach $9.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Significant mass exposure or sustained mobility of instances requiring large multi-day emergency response, public containment, and diplomatic costs.
large_avalanche_exposing_many_instances sustained_mobility_of_instances government_involvement
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $9.0M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
A controlled research breakthrough necessitates rapid scale-up of lab resources, field trials, and partnerships.
promising_countermeasure partnership_with_external_researchers expanded_field_trials
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $25.0M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$17.5M vs baseline
Mass exposure event or public revelation forcing emergency extraction/deep containment and large legal/compensation payouts.
major_avalanche_uncovering_large_fraction widespread_public_casualties international_exposure
👥 Personnel 29 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 16 [#2, #1] Operational MTF roster for Everest expeditions (12–20 indicated); includes mountaineering-capable operators and field security.
Research Scientist 4 [#12, #13] Lab scientists conducting biological/entropic research and experiments.
Medical Officer 2 [#11, #8] High-altitude medics responsible for hypoxia treatment, medevac triage, and on-site medical supplies.
Engineer / Maintenance 2 [#10, #5] Robotics/sensor engineers for maintenance of remote manipulators and sensor network.
Data Analyst / GIS 2 [#22, #6] Analysts processing satellite, SAR, and sensor data and maintaining geo-database/mapping tools.
Administrative Staff 2 [#16, #18, #26] Admin, legal liaison, and cover-story coordination staff for permits, PR, and secure logistics.
Local Liaison / Cultural Officer 1 [#17, #27] Single role coordinating local compensation, cultural mitigation programs and community relations.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges, enabling a mid-confidence estimate for operational costs; uncertainties remain due to unknown total instance count, climate-driven exposure variability, and politically contingent costs (bribes/lobbying/extraction), which widen actual possible outcomes.
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