SCP-5146 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-5146
Expected annual
$126K
One-time setup
$806K
Annual recurring
$96K
Personnel
2
[#20, #21] Baseline recurring costs are modest (~$96,000/year) driven by remote monitoring (imagery subscriptions, secure storage and IT) and regional readiness; one-time capital and contingency reserves (initial expedition, secure archive hardware, artifact analysis, and emergency reserves) drive a larger upfront spend (~$806,000 one-time).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $806K
Long Term Decontamination Reserve $500K
[#18] Long-term contingency reserve for decontamination / secure recovery (recommended reserve ~$500,000).
Initial Exploratory Mission $120K
[#6] Capitalized cost for OTF Beta-46 exploratory mission (midpoint ~$120,000).
Emergency Contingency Reserve $100K
[#15] Archival access & FOIA/cover-up response fund (emergency contingency reserve ~$100,000).
Artifact Analysis $30K
[#8] Artifact/document conservation & laboratory analysis (initial analysis package budget ~$30,000).
Forward Logistics Cache $30K
[#12] Regional forward logistics / staging initial cache purchase (~$30,000).
Equipment $16K
[#4] Secure archival server and ingestion pipeline (midpoint of $12,000–$20,000).
Safety Equipment $10K
[#9] On-site safety equipment procurement (one-time ~$10,000).
Facilities $0
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Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
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Initial Outlay Summary $0
[#21] Summary: one-time capital/setup + reasonable contingency ($180k–$350k noted). Totals computed from items above.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $96K/yr
Research And Monitoring $25K/yr
[#1, #5, #14] Commercial imagery subscription (~$12,000/year), data storage/backups (~$3,000/year), secure IT/cybersecurity (~$10,000/year).
Logistics And Transport $20K/yr
[#11] Rapid-response travel budget and on-call deployment reserves (~$20,000/year allocated; note analyst estimate ~$25,000/year reserved).
Cover Story And Legal $18K/yr
[#10] Regional diplomatic / permits / liaison & covert cover-costs (budgeted ~$18,000/year within $15k–$30k range).
Staff Wages $12K/yr
[#3, #13] Analyst time for bimonthly verification (~$6,000/year) and site documentation/archival staff time (~$6,000/year).
Insurance Medevac $8K/yr
[#17] Insurance / medevac and medical standby (~$8,000/year; lower-end estimate).
Facilities Maintenance $6K/yr
[#19] Depreciation / overhead allocation (Site-35 share; midpoint/minor allocation ~$6,000/year).
Forward Logistics Maintenance $5K/yr
[#12] Forward cache restock/maintenance (~$5,000/year if maintained).
Safety Replenishment $2K/yr
[#9] On-site safety consumables and PPE replenishment (~$2,000/year).
Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
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Research And Monitoring On Demand Tasking $0/yr
[#2] Satellite imagery tasking fee for higher-resolution or on-demand scenes: $3,000–$25,000 per task (typical urgent budget ~$10,000); not assumed in baseline (budgeted as per-task contingency).
Field Follow Up Mission Cost Per Mission $0/yr
[#7] Contingent cost per field follow-up mission: $50,000–$125,000 per mission (typical budget ~$80,000); treated as per-mission contingency (not budgeted into baseline annual).
Environmental Surveys $0/yr
[#16] Environmental / hydrographic survey per-survey cost $20,000–$40,000; not assumed in baseline (budgeted when triggered).
Baseline Summary $0/yr
[#20] Baseline annual operating cost summary ($70,000–$100,000 noted); baseline derived from summed recurring line items.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $96K/yr
74.5% probability / year
Normal year with routine remote monitoring, archival operations, and readiness but no on-site follow-up missions or major incidents.
bimonthly imagery checks no field deployment routine IT and archival maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $176K/yr
20.0% probability / year +$80K vs baseline
A single field follow-up mission is required (one small vessel mission, no significant artifact recovery).
anomalous change detected on imagery cloud/cover forces urgent tasking small follow-up needed for verification
🚨 Major Incident $286K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$190K vs baseline
Follow-up mission leads to artifact recovery and required conservation/analysis plus expedited legal/PR response and targeted surveys.
artifact/structure recovery public exposure or leak need for specialist analysis
🚨 Catastrophic Remediation $1.1M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Low-probability large-scale remediation/decontamination or secure removal operation is required.
island becomes hazardous or populated by anomalous items requirement for heavy-lift/demolition and long-term security
👥 Personnel 2 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Imagery Analyst 1 [#3] Part-time imagery analyst performing bimonthly verification (~0.05 FTE, budgeted ~$6,000/year).
Administrative / Archival Staff 1 [#13] Part-time archival/documentation support (~0.05–0.1 FTE, budgeted ~$6,000/year).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges and clear recurring vs. contingent distinctions, enabling a reasonable estimate; uncertainty remains in frequency of field missions, on-demand imagery tasking, and the scope/timing of rare remediation events, so confidence is medium.
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