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SCP-5158 Euclid-Adviso ~ medium confidence
SCP-5158
Expected annual
$31.7M
One-time setup
$47.7M
Annual recurring
$29.9M
Personnel
28
Initial startup capital is dominated by contingency/reserve and salvage/eradication options (~$46M one-time), while steady annual operations (vessels, aerial support, fungicide, staff) drive recurring costs (~$29.9M/yr). Main drivers are continuous maritime enforcement, fungicide supply/ops, and research/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $47.7M
Contingency Reserve $20.0M
[#23] Rapid escalation / emergency response reserve for large-scale spraying, military/contractor mobilization, coastline response.
Facilities $11.0M
[#12, #18, #6] One-time remediation/salvage/demolition and rig/site power + decontamination infrastructure (salvage $10M mid; power infra $600k; decon units $375k).
Equipment $5.7M
[#2, #4, #5, #7, #11, #17, #22] Hardware purchases: drones $200k, vessel/aircraft spray rigs $1.25M, metal‑plated hazmat suits $500k, portable incinerator $1.65M, ROV/AUV/workboat fleet $1.5M, buoys $400k, data/telemetry hardware $200k.
Litigation Escrow $5.0M
[#24] One-time litigation/escrow set-aside for potential settlements or jurisdictional liabilities.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $3.9M
[#8, #13] BSL‑3 aquatic-capable lab setup and diagnostic assay development/validation (lab $3.0M mid; assay dev $850k).
Fungicide Application Systems $1.2M
[#4] One-time retrofits and bulk storage/containment for aerial/vessel spraying (aggregated $500k–$2M; mid used).
Hazmat Suits $500K
[#5] Purchase of custom metal‑plated hazmat suits and spares for team rotation (12 active + 8 spares estimate).
Environmental Assessment $300K
[#15] Baseline environmental impact assessment for marine spraying/incineration (one-time study, permitting prep).
Training Program $125K
[#21] Initial training program and drills setup (one-time course/dev costs).
Decontamination Infrastructure $0
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Incinerator Purchase $0
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Rov Auv Purchase $0
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Remediation Salvage $0
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Navigation Buoys $0
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Power Infrastructure $0
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Data Hardware $0
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🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $29.9M/yr
Logistics And Transport $17.9M/yr
[#1, #2, #11, #20, #4] Continuous maritime enforcement (vessel charters/ops), helicopter flight hours for rapid response, ROV/AUV maintenance/ops, hazardous waste transport, and application-system upkeep.
Supplies And Consumables $2.8M/yr
[#3, #8, #14] Type NSKA fungicide purchases (targeted treatment mid estimate), per-test assay consumables, and general lab consumables/sample storage.
Staff Wages $2.5M/yr
[#10] Salaries for rotating Level 3+ scientists, marine techs/ROV pilots, medics, security, vessel crews, program manager/admin (base + hazard pay).
Research And Monitoring $2.0M/yr
[#13, #15, #22] Ongoing research staff & consumables, environmental monitoring, and data/subscription costs for remote sensing/telemetry.
Insurance And Legal Reserve $1.1M/yr
[#24] Annual insurance premiums / compensation reserve and budgeted legal liability coverage.
Medical Readiness $625K/yr
[#19] Medevac contracts, medical supplies and training, trauma readiness for acid exposure/infection control.
Fuel And Power $600K/yr
[#18] Recurring fuel and generator power operations for the rig site and shore support (excluding vessel/helicopter fuel accounted elsewhere).
Cover Story And Legal $550K/yr
[#16] Retained legal counsel, PR/cover story maintenance, coordination with maritime authorities and NOTAM/MARAD notices.
Incineration Disposal Contingency $550K/yr
[#7] Annual contingency for contracted incineration/disposal of contaminated biomass and routine contaminated disposals.
Administrative Overhead $500K/yr
[#25] Program admin, procurement, contract management, accounting and compliance.
Quarantine Monitoring $375K/yr
[#9] Screening and 30-day isolation monitoring costs per exposed person (50 exposures/yr mid estimate).
Hazmat Maintenance $125K/yr
[#5] Annual replacement, repair and consumables for custom metal‑plated hazmat suits.
Facilities Maintenance $118K/yr
[#6, #17] Recurring maintenance for decontamination systems and navigational buoy upkeep.
Training And Psych Support $88K/yr
[#21] Ongoing drills, refresher training and psychological support for staff.
Hazardous Waste Transport $0/yr
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⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $29.9M/yr
89.0% probability / year
Normal year with steady containment: scheduled patrols, bi-weekly targeted spraying, routine research and monitoring, and no major containment breaches or large-scale remediation.
no breaches routine operations targeted spraying only
🚨 Minor Incident $31.4M/yr
6.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Localized spread or small contamination event requiring intensified spraying, extra assays, short-term increased quarantine and limited salvage/removal operations.
localized spread increased spore detection near exclusion boundary
🚨 Major Breach $54.9M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Significant breach into local fisheries/nearshore requiring widescale spraying, contracted disposal, litigation/compensation and emergency remediation response.
spread to fisheries shoreline contamination public exposure
🚨 Eradication Scale Up $69.9M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$40.0M vs baseline
Planned large-scale eradication / full-source removal campaign (controlled demolition/salvage of MV Nerva and Ohmuno rig sections) requiring major one-off mobilization and year-long elevated ops.
decision to attempt eradication large‑scale salvage/demolition required
👥 Personnel 28 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Senior Researcher 4 [#10] Level 3+ scientists responsible for laboratory research and field protocols.
Marine Technician / ROV Pilot 6 [#10, #11] Operate ROV/AUVs, sampling, and in-situ equipment.
Security Officer / Boarding Personnel 8 [#10] Boarding teams for exclusion-zone enforcement and vessel interdiction.
Vessel Crew 6 [#1, #10] Crew positions for patrol/spray vessels (rotating).
Program Manager / Administrative Staff 3 [#10, #25] Program manager plus procurement/admin support.
Medical Officer 1 [#19] Medical readiness, screening oversight and casualty handling.
Other (logistics/maintenance) 0 []
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items, but very large ranges on fungicide scope, salvage scale, and contingency create material uncertainty; maritime enforcement and fungicide-area assumptions dominate variance.
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