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SCP-5392 Neutralized ~ medium confidence
SCP-5392
Expected annual
$5.8M
One-time setup
$12.1M
Annual recurring
$4.9M
Personnel
22
Foundation one-time operational spend estimated at $12,050,000 (main drivers: emergency MTF deployment, satellite retasking/rendezvous, site lockdown surge, initial amnestic & medical response, and limited archival research). Recurring annual Foundation operational spend is modest (~$4.9M/yr) for continued monitoring, staff wages, and limited research/psych support. This corrected estimate is materially lower than the prior billion-dollar-level projection because SCP-5392 was neutralized by its pilot (no recoverable drive or wreckage) and large-scale containment / reverse-engineering programs are infeasible.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $12.1M
Site Lockdown Surges $3.0M
One-time surge costs to put multiple Foundation sites at elevated readiness (additional security staffing, overtime, temporary materiel stores and site fortification measures in immediate aftermath).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.0M
One-time archival analysis and theory-group setup to analyze telemetry, imagery, livestream recordings, and the seized silo evidence (not a full-scale FTL replication program, which is infeasible because no recoverable drive/wreckage exists).
Satellite Retasking And Rendezvous $1.5M
Operator time, satellite stationkeeping propellant usage and maneuver planning to redirect SENTINEL-6 and other assets into rendezvous approach and to maintain extra-bandwidth telemetry windows during the incident.
Facilities $1.2M
Short-term secure-communications and modest quarantine/lab hardening at Site-26 to support close-range satellite telemetry ingestion and classified liaison operations. No permanent orbital platform constructed (object neutralized).
Mtf Deployment And Ops $1.2M
Deployment costs for MTF Zeta-9 (airlift/helicopter insertion, on-site support, hazard-bagging, field equipment, per-mission allowances). Includes medevac-readiness and mission consumables. Foundation casualties were reported as zero; non-Foundation casualties are not Foundation operational spend beyond amnestic/medical assistance below.
Equipment $1.0M
Portable hazmat/sample containment, boarding tooling used by MTF on silo mission, secure portable comms kits and short-term mission-specific hardware procured for the Kamchatka and rendezvous work.
Amnestic Stockpile Initial $750K
Initial production/allocation of clinical-grade Class-B amnestics and administration supplies used for witness management (livestream viewers, silo personnel, affected Russian soldiers), plus deployment logistics for amnestic teams.
Legal And Diplomacy Initial $500K
Emergency legal counsel, classified diplomatic liaison activities with GOC/UN contacts and on-call retainer expenses incurred during crisis negotiations and coordination.
Data Forensics And Imagery Processing $400K
Forensics of livestream/video, geolocation and trajectory reconstruction, missile-origin analysis, and cross-referencing of seized documents from the silo.
Emergency Incident Response $250K
Rapid-response mobilization (analysts, on-call MTF surge pay, travel, incident command setup and short-notice logistics) incurred in the initial hours after detection.
Counseling And Psych Support Initial $200K
Initial mental-health surge for mission-control staff, negotiators, and direct responders (acute counselling, short-term therapy sessions, and related support).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.9M/yr
Staff Wages $2.5M/yr
Salaries and retention / rotating-shift overtime for mission controllers, communications analysts, a small dedicated watch team to monitor related frequencies/space activity, and a handful of researchers maintaining the incident file.
Research And Monitoring $1.0M/yr
Sustained limited theoretical analysis of telemetry/recorded data and routine automated orbital monitoring of related signatures. Note: large-scale reverse-engineering programs are NOT budgeted because the craft was deliberately destroyed by its pilot and no recoverable drive exists.
Logistics And Transport $600K/yr
Routine retasking costs, occasional short-notice airlift for small MTF teams, and domestic transport to handle follow-up investigative tasks (e.g., visits to foreign sites for amnestic/medical aid).
Facilities Maintenance $500K/yr
Ongoing upkeep of the modest comms/lab hardening performed at Site-26 and increased routine maintenance related to additional satellite operations coordination (ground-station ops surcharge).
Supplies And Consumables $300K/yr
Amnestic consumables, MTF consumables/repair parts, and expendables for continued limited monitoring and occasional field operations.
Cover Story And Legal $0/yr
Zeroed by policy and feasibility: large-scale public concealment/cover-up is not budgeted because the events were observed/recorded by multiple national actors and public livestreams; per Rule 3, realistic concealment is impossible, so the Foundation does not invest in a false impression of plausible deniability at scale. The Foundation instead performs targeted liaison, amnestic treatment and diplomatic coordination (costed elsewhere).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.9M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Post-incident steady state after SCP-5392 was neutralized: limited archival research, routine monitoring of space frequencies and continued site readiness.
no_further_state_escalation no_recoverable_debris_event limited ongoing analysis
🚨 Diplomatic Escalation And Localized Response $9.1M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$4.2M vs baseline
An adverse year where diplomatic tensions increase (arrests/intimidation of Foundation personnel, hostile state actions), requiring a multi-month security surge, expanded amnestic operations and emergency legal/diplomatic expenses.
targeted_attacks_on_foundation_assets government_seizure_or_legal_action_against_staff need_for large-scale amnestic deployment
🚨 Low Probability Major Security Event $15.0M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$10.1M vs baseline
Low-probability severe escalation year requiring large-scale multi-site defense, extended MTF operations and broad remediation (e.g., coordinated international incidents triggered by the fallout of earlier events).
multi-national kinetic actions against Foundation sites widespread destabilizing operations requiring multi-site defense and legal/cover operations
👥 Personnel 22 total
Role Count Notes
Communications Analysts / Negotiators 2 Primary contacts who communicated with POI-5392-1 and maintain encrypted uplinks; shift coverage for continued liaison.
Mission Controllers / Orbital Watch 4 24/7 watch team to monitor relevant frequencies, retasked satellites and maintain rendezvous windows; salaries reflected in staff_wages.
Research Scientists / Data Analysts 4 Telemetry and imagery analysts performing archival analysis and limited theoretical study of recorded signatures.
MTF Operators / Security Agents 6 Rapid-response teams (Zeta-9 style) for silo expedition follow-ups, site lockdowns and limited field operations; deployment costs captured in one-time and scenario surge items.
Medical Officers / Field Medics 2 Provide on-site treatment, amnestic administration oversight, and staff psychological first response.
Legal / Diplomatic Liaison 1 Handles classified-state liaison, legal retainers and communications with GOC/UN contacts.
Cyber / IT Operator 1 Maintains encrypted comms windows, satellite command interfaces and secure data stores.
Site Security / Facilities Support 1 On-site site-lockdown coordinator and facilities liaison for surge readiness.
Administrative / Logistics Coordinator 1 Coordinates travel, procurement and MTF manifests for short-notice ops.
📋 Confidence Notes
This re-evaluation uses the complete incident record: SCP-5392 was destroyed by its pilot (neutralized) and therefore many previously-proposed line items (orbital containment platforms, recovery of drive, large-scale reverse-engineering) are infeasible and have been removed or reduced to zero. Estimates are drawn from documented actions (satellite retasking, MTF deployment, amnestic operations, Site-26 lockdowns) so confidence is medium. This differs materially from the original report, which included multi-billion open-ended R&D and contingency buckets—those were not justified by the article's outcome and have been zeroed or replaced with limited, documented operational costs. Remaining uncertainties: diplomatic fallout magnitude, clandestine foreign operations, and any later-discovered debris that would require additional expenditure.
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